Why Is Moscow Stalling on Trump's Energy Ceasefire?
While Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky proposes signing a ceasefire on energy infrastructure, Russia has yet to respond.
US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a ceasefire over attacks on energy infrastructure "effective immediately". Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskiy said this is news to me, while Russia has not commented publicly.
Donald Trump says an energy truce has been agreed.
Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, was asked during his daily briefing with reporters whether such a ceasefire had been agreed upon.
Peskov replied: The calls continue.
As soon as we have something to say about this, we will definitely let you know."
Peskov may not have much to say about it, but the pro-Kremlin media does.
The organization called President Trump's announcement of an energy truce a "gift" to Moscow.
"Of course we will benefit," concluded Moskovsky Komsomolets ambassador Arjan.
This means that all Russia has to do is not destroy Ukraine's last oil refinery.
"It's already been attacked several times. It's barely working anyway.
But Kiev will not be allowed to hit many of our refineries.
"In fact, it's a one-way deal that benefits us. That's why nobody here has officially rejected it."
In other words, Moscow believes that Trump's announcement binds Ukraine, not Russia.
In recent months, long-range attacks by Ukrainian drones have caused extensive damage to Russian oil facilities, as well as fuel. Shortages across the country
If such attacks continue, expect the Russians to claim that Kiev is harming US economic interests as well as the Republican Party's chances in the November midterm elections.
Russian officials will argue that the attacks undermine the recent agreement between Trump and Putin to import Russian diesel.
Trump has claimed that the deal will benefit American consumers, although there is widespread skepticism that volumes related to lower fuel prices will do much.
However, the Kremlin will be more than happy if Ukrainian drone attacks on oil facilities infuriate the White House and reduce US support for Kiev.
Moscow will welcome Washington's termination of intelligence sharing with Ukraine and arms sales to Europe destined for Kiev.
He was already happy to hear Trump say, "I think it's time for Ukraine to elect a new president."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for a 60-day ceasefire with Russia to hold presidential elections in Ukraine.
"The Kremlin, the president, has said many times before, we don't want a ceasefire, we want lasting peace, and we're willing to do everything possible for that," Peskov said.
"Whatever is possible" does not include a 60-day ceasefire or a 30-day ceasefire or anything close to it.
On Monday, the Kremlin proposed a one-day suspension of hostilities for Ukraine to hold elections.
This will not be taken as a serious proposal in Ukraine or in the West.
Putin has shown little desire to stop the conflict.
Recent statements, speeches and signals from the Russian leader suggest that as winter approaches, the Kremlin is counting on continued Russian attacks to dramatically increase pressure on Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday that Ukraine did not deserve a ceasefire "respite".
The Kremlin has claimed it is seeking a "lasting peace" but is currently fighting a war.
On Monday, Zelensky claimed that Russia had attacked several energy targets across Ukraine during the night and morning.
"This window of opportunity should be used to return Ukraine to the Stone Age and force it to accept peace on Russia's terms," pro-government Moskovsky Komsomolets wrote.
The Kremlin's goal has not changed: the surrender of Ukraine.
Moscow appears to believe that Diesel's deal with Trump and the US president's growing impatience with Zelensky will help Russia maintain its cause.