Trump at a Crossroads: Deal or War? Which Scenario Is More Likely?

As disputes between Tehran and Washington over the nuclear file and the Strait of Hormuz persist, an international affairs expert warns of a diminishing prospect for a deal and a rising likelihood of renewed US and Israeli military strikes on Iran.

Reza Mirtaher, an expert on international issues regarding the dispute between Iran and the United States regarding the priority of the nuclear case or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, said: It seems that according to the statements of the Iranian and American officials, the current point of difference between the two countries is about the priorities of each of the parties. For Iran, the issue of lifting the sea and air blockade is a high priority, while for the United States, reaching a comprehensive agreement, especially in the nuclear field, is a high priority.

He added: The key word in the statements of American officials, from Trump to Hegst and Rubio and others, is that they claim that Iran must provide guarantees in the nuclear field or take measures to show that Iran will never acquire nuclear weapons.

This international affairs expert continued: Of course, this issue is important considering the contradictory positions of the American government. Trump has repeatedly claimed that he has completely destroyed Iran's nuclear power. If this claim is true, it is really questionable that they are re-emphasizing that Iran should not have a nuclear capability or that it should take specific actions in this regard.

Mir Taher clarified: In any case, the best news for Trump would be for Iran to accept all of his demands. I think that the demands of the Americans from Iran actually go far beyond the requests regarding the nuclear issue. Naturally, from his point of view, Trump claims that Iran does not have any trump cards. He also claimed that America has completely won the war against Iran and has full control over the Strait of Hormuz.

He said: If we consider these components, from Trump's point of view, his demand is Iran's unconditional surrender and acceptance of all American demands. These demands are primarily related to the nuclear issue, including materials, facilities, infrastructure and nuclear technology. In the second place, most likely, there is the issue of missiles and Iran's missile and drone capabilities, and in the third place, there is Iran's regional policy, regional allied forces, and the termination of Iran's support for the axis of resistance in the region.

Referring to the positions of the Iranian side, this expert on international issues said: On the other hand, Major General Rezaei, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, has announced in his recent interview that the Americans have accepted some of Iran's seven conditions in their message to Iran, while Iran wants to accept all of them.

Mir Taher stated that the prospect of reaching an agreement in the current situation is not very promising, and added: Currently, due to the great distance between the positions of the two sides, the possibility of reaching an agreement is low or small. On the contrary, in my opinion, the probability of Trump and the Zionist regime's military action against Iran has increased.

He continued: America and the Zionist regime are also facing a specific deadline. For Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of the Zionist regime, the elections of late October 2026 are a vital issue. Experience has shown that Netanyahu will not have much chance of winning the elections, especially the upcoming elections, without embarking on a foreign adventure. Therefore, there is a possibility that the Zionist regime wants to increase Netanyahu's popularity inside Israel by carrying out some kind of military adventure against Iran.

Referring to the pressures caused by the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on America, this expert on international issues stated: On the other hand, the issue is that considering the current deadlock and the growing pressure of Iran to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz and prevent the passage of oil tankers and ships through this strategic waterway, how long can the United States tolerate this situation?

He added: Anyway, this situation has caused a significant increase in the price of fuel carriers, especially gasoline and diesel, in the world, including in America. The continuation of these conditions until the November 2026 mid-term elections will certainly greatly increase the probability of Republican defeat in these elections.

Mir Taher continued: It remains to be seen if Trump is willing to embark on a military adventure before the mid-term elections to reverse this trend, or if he will postpone this action until the November 2026 elections until the start of the new Congress in January 2027, that is, about two months.

He pointed out: It is difficult to predict this issue from now, but one thing that cannot be denied is the increase in the possibility of a new military adventure by the United States at this time and also after the mid-term elections.

Emphasizing the possibility of military action against Iran, Mirtaher said: In my opinion, the probability of this adventure is extremely high. This action can begin with the initial attack of the Zionist regime against Iran, and then the United States will accompany it; Or the Americans themselves start military action and the Zionist regime goes along with it. Evidence and reports, at least at this point, show that the Pentagon and Centcom have prepared operational plans for very large-scale attacks against Iran.

In response to the question that according to the positions of China and Russia on Iran, whether it is possible to use the capacity of Russia and China to create deterrence against the United States, or whether the independent interests of Moscow and Beijing prevent them from relying on these two countries, he said: In my opinion, the expectations that Iran has from Russia and China should be reasonable. These two countries, especially China, are by no means willing to enter into confrontation with America because of Iran, but at the same time, in line with their strategic interests, they want Iran to continue to be able to resist America.

This international affairs expert added: According to this approach, measures such as intelligence assistance, including providing very detailed images of American bases in the region, as well as logistical and weapons assistance are possible, but the answer is negative if these two countries want to take military action together with Iran against the United States.

Mir Taher continued: However, in the current situation where Iran is under unprecedented pressure from the United States in the last 50 years, including a sea and air blockade, and possibly a land blockade in the future, and its oil exports are severely limited, and on the other hand, imports are also facing serious restrictions, Iran should welcome any help from any possible source at this time.

Furthermore, he said about Russia's possible proposal to mediate on the issue of transferring Iran's enriched uranium and the statements made about Putin's talks in this regard: There have been many attempts to mediate on the part of Russia, and one of the constant proposals of the Russians, both in the past and now, is that in order to ensure the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in Iran, 60% of the uranium that Iran has, which is about 400 kilograms, is on loan to Russia. be deposited In my opinion, one of Russia's proposals was and will be the same.

This expert on international issues clarified: the issue is whether the Americans will accept such a proposal or not. Unfortunately, the current problem is that from Trump's point of view, America is the complete winner of the war, and Iran, as the loser, must give in to all of America's demands. This issue naturally means Iran's surrender and acceptance of all American conditions, from the nuclear issue to other issues; While Iran will never accept such a situation and such a demand. Therefore, in my opinion, any mediation should be based on bringing the mutual demands of Iran and America closer together and reaching a level of logical balance between these demands.