From Attacks on Saudi Airports to Control of Bab al-Mandab: How Ansar Allah Is Changing the Equations of the Regional War

The war in Yemen has spilled beyond the country's borders and reached energy infrastructure and airports in Saudi Arabia. As Iran and the United States also stand on the brink of heightened tensions, this new front could change the equations of the regional war.

Political group: The war in Yemen has gone beyond the borders of this country. A war that has flared up again after four years, in the middle of the American-Israeli war with Iran. Now Ansarullah's missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports and energy infrastructures, operations by Riyadh-backed forces on the coast of the Red Sea, and the possibility of the United States directly entering the war against the Houthis are signs of the formation of a new front in the region. A front that can expand the scope of the war from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea if the US and Israel attack Iran again.

Ansarullah's recent attacks on Saudi civilian infrastructure show that the balance of power has changed in this war. When the coalition of Saudi Arabia and the UAE started the war against Yemen in 2015, the Houthis were constantly bombarded. Now, however, on the two days of Mehr 19 and 20, the attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh left 13 dead and more than 300 injured in one case, and in another case, one person was killed and 11 injured. Following these attacks, the operation of Riyadh airport was disrupted and this airport has been temporarily closed. Previously, the Saudi energy infrastructure, including the East-West pipeline, which plays an important role in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, was also targeted and temporarily disabled. In this way, Saudi Arabia is now facing a crisis of protecting its vital infrastructure, air routes and its economic position in the region.

Bab al-Mandab lever next to the Strait of Hormuz

The strategic importance of Yemen lies in its geographical location. Bab al-Mandab connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is one of the main sea trade routes between Asia and Europe. Disruption of this passage can disrupt the passage of ships bound for the Suez Canal and force shipping companies to choose a longer route around the Cape of Good Hope.

This situation in the war between Iran and America has double importance. If the Strait of Hormuz is the main route of pressure on the energy exports of the Persian Gulf, Bab al-Mandab under the control of the Houthis close to Iran can become a complementary lever to increase the economic and military costs of the war. Saudi Arabia, which maintains part of its oil export capacity through the Red Sea, will suffer a lot from this situation.

Will America enter the war in Yemen?

Saudi Arabia relies on foreign military and intelligence support to push back Ansarullah, but the experience of the past years shows that air superiority alone is not enough to eliminate the missile and drone capabilities of this group. In 1404, the United States bombed Yemen for about 50 days in a large-scale operation, but the airstrikes could not destroy the Houthis' missile and drone capabilities. Dispersion of military infrastructure, deployment in mountainous areas and the ability to maintain part of the weapons capacity make operations against Ansarullah difficult.

For this reason, after the restart of the war in July, the United States rejected Saudi Arabia's request to enter the war directly. However, after the recent attacks, Donald Trump has said that he is considering the possibility of the US joining the Saudi operation against the Houthis. But American attacks on Ansarullah's positions increase the possibility of this group retaliating against American forces and Washington's allies.

Will Yemen enter the Iran-US war?

If the US and Israel attacks on Iran resume, the Yemeni Houthis can create a new front against Washington by expanding attacks on Israeli targets, Saudi facilities and shipping in the Red Sea. In that case, America will have to divide its military resources between confronting Iran, protecting its forces in the Persian Gulf, and defending regional allies.

However, Yemen's Ansarullah are not directly subordinated to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran has political, military and weapons relations with this group, but the Houthis also have their own internal roots and independent calculations. Therefore, the expansion of the war to the Yemeni front is possible, but the extent of its coordination with Iran's operations will depend on the conditions and decisions of the actors.

The war in Yemen started after a four-year ceasefire in July after the Saudi attack on Sana'a airport. Ansarullah resumed missile attacks on Saudi Arabia. Later, the conflicts went beyond scattered cross-border attacks and extended to the coasts of the Red Sea and the areas near the strategic Bab al-Mandab crossing.

In September, forces affiliated with the recognized government of Yemen, with Saudi air support, began an operation to recapture the coastal areas. Reports indicate the widespread participation of Saudi planes and the fact that this operation is supported by American intelligence. However, reclaiming coastal areas is not easily possible. The forces opposing Ansarullah are made up of groups with different political interests, and the difference between the currents affiliated with the Yemeni government and the southern forces has prevented the formation of a unified front. For this reason, the advance of the Houthi forces continues and they are on the verge of taking control of the strategic city of Taiz.

All signs indicate that the developments in Yemen have reached a decisive point. Saudi Arabia and its allies are trying to remove Ansarullah from the Red Sea by occupying the western regions of Yemen. But so far, the Houthis were able to control the strategic areas on the west coast of Yemen. They are now trying to move the war deep into Saudi Arabia, and America is also faced with the question of whether or not it should add a new front to the regional war to defend its ally.

Therefore, if America and Israel attack Iran again, Yemen can become an effective factor in determining the scope and cost of the war. Because the Yemeni Houthis have shown that they have the capacity to threaten the interests of Saudi Arabia, Israel and world trade routes in the region at the same time.