Red Light in Netanyahu's Camp; Race Enters New Phase

Channel 12's latest poll shows the Yashar Party led by Gadi Eisenkot leading the race, a result that, amid the fallout of war and political crises, is a warning sign for Netanyahu.

The latest poll by Israel's Channel 12 shows Yashar's party led by Gadi Eisenkot leading the competition; A result that is an alarm for Netanyahu amid the consequences of war and political crises.

Ambassador Arjan-International Group: The latest survey of Israel TV Channel 12 presents a picture of the change in the balance of the election contests and the intensification of Benjamin Netanyahu's political challenges. According to this survey, Yashar's party led by Gadi Eysenkot is in first place with 23 seats, and Likud party led by Netanyahu is in second place with 20 seats. The three-seat gap between the two parties, in the context of the competition for the formation of the next government, is of political importance and can be seen as a warning for Netanyahu and his party.

According to the same poll, "Bahm" party led by Naftali Bennett will get 13 seats. Israel, our home, and the Democrats have 9 seats each; The joint list of Arabs, Shas, and Jewish Power won 8 seats each. United Torah Judaism gets 7 seats, Religious Zionist Coalition 6 seats and Raam Arab List 5 seats. The list of Handel and Zuleikha is also included in this estimate with 4 seats. This distribution indicates a multi-polar competition in which no single party will achieve the majority of 61 seats needed to form the government.

The significance of the poll is not limited to Yashar's superiority over Likud; The combination of bloc seats is also decisive for the future of the government. According to the published report about the Channel 12 survey, Netanyahu's opposition parties will win a total of 67 seats and the ruling coalition will win 49 seats; The other four seats belong to streams that are classified outside the two main blocs. If such an arrangement is realized in the elections, Netanyahu's opponents will be in a different position in terms of numbers; However, the final composition of the coalitions and the positions of the parties after the elections will still play a decisive role.

Comparing these results with the 14 channel survey also highlights the difference between media estimates. In the survey mentioned by channel 14, Likud was predicted to win 29 seats and Yashar 20 seats; However, Channel 12 presents a different picture by estimating 23 seats for Yashar and 20 seats for Likud. This difference shows that the results of the polls are dependent on the time of implementation, the statistical population and the measurement method, and no single estimate can be considered as the definitive result of the election.

Channel 12 survey, according to the published report, was conducted with the participation of 509 people aged 18 and over, and the maximum margin of error declared is 4.4 percentage points. Therefore, the three-seat gap between the two parties should be evaluated within the framework of the statistical limitations of this measurement. Its political importance, above all, reflects the state of competition and the degree of fragility of Likud's electoral position.

In the meantime, the electoral competition has found dimensions beyond the party competition in the shadow of the consequences of Netanyahu's warlike policies and the military attack on Iran. The ramifications of the Ramadan war, from economic pressures and rising costs of living to heightened security concerns and reports of reverse migration, have added to the Israeli government's political challenges. At the same time, the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant against Netanyahu in connection with crimes related to the Gaza war has highlighted the international costs of his policies, along with increasing criticism of Israel's performance and expanding diplomatic pressure.

In such a situation, Eisenkot's lead in the Channel 12 poll can be seen as an alarm for Netanyahu and the Likud party; In this regard, Netanyahu's critics are worried that the escalation of foreign tensions will once again become a tool to change the political agenda and marginalize demands for accountability. What is clear is that the results of this poll once again raise serious questions about Netanyahu's political future and the level of electoral support for his party.

However, a lead in the polls does not necessarily mean the ability to form a government. The final result depends on the votes of the election day, the parties passing the electoral threshold, the level of participation and the possibility of political currents reaching a coalition agreement. Therefore, the continuation or change of this trend in the next surveys will be of particular importance. If the distance between Yashar and Likud is maintained in the future measurements, the political pressure on Netanyahu will increase; But the extent of its influence on the composition of the future government will be determined only when the final composition of the Knesset seats is clarified.

The survey of Israel TV Channel 12 indicates the change in the distribution of possible seats in the Knesset; According to the announced results, the Yashar party led by Gadi Eisenkot won 23 seats and the Likud party won 20 seats.

The first poll after the finalization of the Knesset election lists indicates the opposition's lead with 57 seats; But none of the two main blocs will reach the majority of 61 seats.

On the eve of the Israeli Knesset elections, Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a decrease in political support, corruption cases and pressure from security failures; A situation that analysts believe may lead him to create foreign crises in order to maintain power.