What Do Putin and Trump Each Gain from the Diesel Deal?

On October 9, 2026, after talking with Putin, Trump announced that Russia will supply 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons immediately after. He also announced the supply of another three million tons, subject to the condition of Russian refineries; A promise that brings the total shipments to about 4.8 million tons. At the same time, the US Treasury Department temporarily suspended the embargo on Russian diesel until April 2027.

Trump's motivation for this action is completely internal. The agreement was announced in the context of the jump in fuel prices and the approaching mid-term elections. Trump blames Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, but evidence suggests that the war with Iran had a far greater effect on the supply disruption. From this point of view, increasing Russian supply for Washington is a way to reduce the immediate market pressure and contain the political consequences of high fuel prices.

On the other hand, Putin's achievement goes beyond selling diesel. Moscow is resuming some of its banned exports while providing an incentive for the US to oppose Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries. In this way, Washington is practically on the side of Moscow regarding the security of these facilities. Therefore, Russia benefits from the reduction of sanctions pressure without making any concessions on the issue of war.

Ukraine's reaction also reflects the same political outcome. Zelensky called the agreement a "gift to Putin" and announced that Kiev will not target Russian refineries if Russia stops attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. This position suggests a mutual cessation of attacks, not acceptance of a unilateral cessation of Ukrainian operations.

However, it is unlikely that Kiev will stop the attacks completely. Refineries are among Ukraine's most effective levers of pressure, and attacks since July have disabled much of Russia's refining capacity. At the same time, Ukraine cannot ignore the cost of confrontation with Washington, because it depends on American weapons and its sanctions pressure on Russia. The recent signing of the Russia sanctions bill and the approval of the largest arms deal with Ukraine increase the importance of Washington's support for Kiev. As a result, the most likely scenario is continued attacks in a more selective manner. A direct attack on the export terminals and ports through which the cargoes of this agreement pass will increase the tension with the United States. Probably, Ukraine is trying to indirectly put pressure on the country's exports by attacking the domestic diesel consumption chain in Russia.

To what extent can this agreement solve the problem?

The actual power of agreement to solve the supply problem is limited. The first obstacle is the shortage in Russia itself. The amount of oil refining in this country reached its lowest level in more than twenty years in June, and diesel production fell by nearly 30%. In such a situation, securing the initial commitment in a short period can be difficult; Especially since the Russian government has prioritized meeting the needs of farmers and the transportation sector before winter.

The more important obstacle is that the supply crisis is not limited to Russia. From February to August, the net export of diesel from the Persian Gulf and Russia decreased by a total of 6.7 million tons per month, of which 73% was related to the Persian Gulf. On the other hand, Russia's share was about a quarter. Therefore, even the increase in Russian exports covers only part of the supply gap, and the main disruption caused by developments in the Persian Gulf remains.

Furthermore, the implementation of the agreement depends on the same infrastructure that remains under attack. The delivery of further shipments is subject to the condition of Russian refineries, and continued Ukrainian attacks could reduce the actual volume of supply. As a result, the promise that is supposed to calm the market is itself dependent on the developments of the war and there is no guarantee of its full realization.

This agreement may moderate the prices a little, but its main effect is political. Washington gets an opportunity to reduce short-term market pressure, while Russia benefits from sanctions relief without reciprocal concessions, protects its refineries in the name of Trump, and at the same time, the ground for disagreement between Washington and Kiev over one of the most important levers of pressure on Moscow is strengthened. For this reason, the political achievement of the agreement for Russia is greater than its effect on the balance of diesel supply and demand in the United States.