Elon Musk promised one million self-driving taxis; Why is Tesla still behind Vimo?

Source link: Elon Musk promised one million self-driving taxis; Why is Tesla still behind Vimo? For years, Tesla has been charting its future growth prospects with ambitious promises about self-driving cars and robotics. However, the gap between Elon Musk's snacks and the company's actual performance has raised an important question for investors: Does Tesla's high valuation match the actual progress of its business? At a glance our Elon

For years, Tesla has been charting its future growth prospects with ambitious promises about self-driving cars and robotics. However, the gap between Elon Musk's snacks and the company's actual performance has raised an important question for investors: Does Tesla's high valuation match the actual progress of its business?

Elon Musk promised one million self-driving taxis by the end of 2020; But the company's fleet still has only a few hundred cars.

Waymo is ahead of Tesla with more than 2,500 vehicles and about 450,000 weekly trips.

Tesla shares have fallen about 15% over the past 12 months.

The retrospective price-to-earnings ratio of 351 points reflects very high expectations for Tesla's stock value.

Big promises and distance from reality

Elon Musk announced in 2019 that Tesla could create a fleet of one million self-driving taxis by the end of 2020 by updating the software of existing cars. However, nearly seven years after that promise, the number of active vehicles in Tesla's self-driving taxi service is still limited to a few hundred.

According to the published report, Tesla will have less than 400 self-driving taxis on US roads by mid-2026, making about 28,000 self-driving trips per week. In contrast, Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, had a much larger scale, with more than 2,500 cars and more than 450,000 weekly trips.

This difference is not only related to the number of cars; Rather, it shows that the transformation of self-driving technology into a widespread service requires overcoming technical, operational and commercial barriers.

Tesla's new self-driving taxi; Targeting for 2027

The Cybercube car, a two-seater product designed for autonomous movement without a steering wheel or pedals, is an important part of Tesla's plan to develop this market. Musk has said that this car can be released in 2027 with a price of up to 30 thousand dollars.

However, Cybercube is still in the early stages of development. Tesla recently added about 300 of these vehicles to its self-driving taxi fleet in Austin. From the point of view of the author of the article, increasing production on a scale that can compensate the distance between Tesla and Vimo seems to be a very difficult goal in the short term.

Of course, the number of cars alone is not enough to evaluate the competition. Safety, the amount of fleet usage, the cost of each trip, the reliability of the system and the possibility of expanding the activity in different cities are also of decisive importance.

Why are investors no longer content with promises?

In the past, many investors saw Musk's ambitious promises as a sign of Tesla's future growth potential; Even when the announced schedule was not fulfilled. But the situation has changed. The core business of car sales is facing more difficulties to grow and the market expects the company's new plans to translate into tangible results.

Tesla shares rose after the release of better-than-expected production and delivery figures in the third quarter; However, its performance has been negative in the past year. This situation shows that the release of short-term positive news cannot necessarily solve the structural concerns of investors.

On the other hand, more than 70% of Tesla's revenue still comes from car sales. So, while Musk wants to value Tesla's market as a company active in autonomous driving and robotics as well, future revenues in this area still need to be proven on a large scale.

"In my opinion, the main problem with Tesla is not simply a delay in delivering on a promise; Rather, it is the gap between the future-based valuation and the company's proven revenue generation ability. The market can value breakthrough technology, but when a large portion of the stock's value is tied to yet-to-be-realized breakthroughs, execution risk becomes a determining factor. A professional valuation of Tesla requires separating technological prowess from its economic returns: technological leadership, without solid evidence of revenue, profit margins and operational expansion, alone does not justify any level of valuation."

High valuation, limited margin of error

According to the figures of the article, the ratio of the price to the retrospective profit of Tesla shares had reached 351 units; A level that creates heavy expectations about the company's future growth. In such a situation, even technological advances may not be enough to justify the stock's value, unless they lead to sustainable revenue, profitability, and real expansion of the business.

Of course, the retrospective price-to-earnings ratio alone is not enough to determine the fair value of the stock. Investors should also consider potential earnings growth, cash flow, technology development costs, and competitive risks. However, the more the valuation depends on future achievements, the more the delay in achieving the goals can increase the sensitivity of the market.

Tesla still has the capacity to become one of the important players in the self-driving transportation market; But the distance between the initial goals and the current performance shows that the realization of this vision is not certain. The competition with Vimo, the limitations of increasing production and the major dependence of revenue on car sales, are among the factors that complicate the assessment of the company's future. For shareholders, the main criterion should not be the magnitude of the promises, but the speed of turning the technology into a profitable and scalable business.

Artificial intelligence has been used to translate some parts of this report.