New IRGC Policy in Strait of Hormuz

In parallel with this new IRGC policy, international news sources have reported a decline in oil transfers through the southern corridor of the strait in recent weeks. According to Kpler, as of October 6, the number of tankers passing through the strait has been at its lowest since July.

Ambassador Arjan-Political Group: The situation in the Strait of Hormuz over the past month has been such that it can be called a change compared to the past. In this period, we have witnessed much more military movements from Iran than in the previous period. Since the middle of September, on average, one ship has been hit every day, and the number of hits has increased since the beginning of last week.

Meanwhile, on the other hand, we don't see any movement or reaction from the American military regarding the attacks on the ships. In a recent audio file, one of the unofficial Iranian spokespersons identified the initiative and creativity of the IRGC Navy and the inability of the other party to react in any way as the reason for this important development. The Iranian authorities had started to announce a new policy towards the strait since the middle of September. On that date, Sardar Mohsen Rezaei spoke of a plan entitled "encircling the blockade" and "creating a prohibited zone", from the American blockade line to the inside of the Persian Gulf, to embargo the offending ships. On the 17th of Mehr, the IRGC Navy Command announced: "From now on, dealing with offending vessels will not be limited to the Strait of Hormuz, and any vessel that passes through an unauthorized passage will be prosecuted throughout the region and will be punished." The announcement of attacks on ships in Qatar and Fujairah in the following days indicated the implementation of this new IRGC approach. Also, the IRGC Navy announced on Mehr 18: "All ships in the Strait of Hormuz that turn off their detection systems will be identified as hostile and will be severely dealt with." The IRGC has also published reports of ships being targeted or ships hitting mines in recent days.

In parallel with this new IRGC policy, international news sources have reported the reduction of oil transfer from the southern corridor of the strait during the recent period. According to Kepler on October 6, the number of oil tankers passing through the strait was the lowest since July.

He also spoke of a 27% reduction in the passage of oil through the strait. While Kepler claimed that before September 28, crude oil passing through the strait was an average of 13.5 million barrels per day, and the passage of oil products was much less at 677,000 barrels compared to 3.6 million barrels before the war.

According to these sources, in the last week of September, including oil transferred through pipes, between 19.5 and 22.5 million barrels of oil have been exported from the Persian Gulf region (of course, there were different estimates: Windward had announced that the oil passing through the strait was less, at 9-10 million barrels). In July, Kepler announced a 60 percent drop in ship traffic, and the IEA estimated average oil transit through the strait in March-May at 2.7 million barrels per day. But in the recent period, there is consensus about a drastic reduction in ships passing through the strait with a clear signal. Of course, all these figures should be considered with caution, because in critical situations and due to the blackout of signals, it is very difficult to verify them. Brent futures price index is an important indicator. The current price of around 105 dollars per barrel is still relatively high compared to 75 dollars before the war and indicates the reaction of the market to the increase in attacks. Of course, a range of other factors, such as the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, the release of strategic reserves, diplomatic movements, etc., also have an effect. But this price is apparently bearable for Trump in terms of domestic politics. In addition, even if the statistics of high crude oil exports from the strait are true, this does not indicate that the situation is normal. This amount of oil is exported at a high cost and military mobilization, and it is not easy to continue it in the long term. But the fact is that the amount of oil exports is at such a level that America thinks that it is politically in a position to not accept Iran's conditions. The low amount of products passing through the strait is also an important factor. The important question now is that, despite more attacks against ships, why has America not had many military actions in recent weeks other than imposing a naval blockade and escorting oil tankers. One of the reasons can be Trump's desire to keep calm during the election campaign. He announced last Thursday that he has no plans to attack Iran before the elections. Trump is probably worried that Iran's goal is to lead him to more reaction, more conflict, and more increase in oil prices, and as a result, more damage to the Republican Party's electoral chances. Avoiding the complete exclusion of diplomacy is also an important factor. Some American sources also claim that the number of ships that are targeted is still not high compared to the ships that pass (two out of a hundred). The fact that Iran has not targeted warships unlike in early September can also be an important factor.