Do Weather Warnings Actually Save Lives? The Missing Link in Crisis Management

On the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction, repeated flood damage raises the question: do weather warnings lead to practical action to protect people's lives and infrastructure?

Today is World Disaster Risk Reduction Day

On the World Day for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction, the recurrence of flood damage raises the question of whether meteorological warnings lead to practical action to protect people's lives and infrastructure.

According to Ambassador Arjan, the autumn rains of Mehr flooded houses and roads in 5 provinces, took the lives of 7 people and damaged the infrastructure. Events that once again remind the necessity of preparation against natural hazards. These events have occurred while approaching autumn, predictions have been made about the strengthening of the El Nino phenomenon and the possibility of changing rainfall patterns. Coinciding with 21 Mehr (October 13), the International Day for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction, with the slogan "Resilience begins at home", this question is more serious than ever: Why do floods continue to cause casualties and widespread damage despite meteorological warnings and repeating past experiences?

This question is raised in a situation where Iran is not only exposed to the consequences of El Nino and floods due to its geographical location and the variety of climatic conditions, but earthquakes, floods, droughts, land subsidence and landslides are only part of the risks that have made this country vulnerable.

However, it should be noted that the occurrence of a natural hazard does not necessarily lead to a disaster. The amount of casualties and damages depends to a large extent on the quality of preventive measures, compliance with construction regulations, infrastructure security, preparedness of responsible agencies and people's awareness. In a country with this level of risk, although it is not possible to prevent the occurrence of all natural disasters, it is possible to prevent them from turning into humanitarian crises by identifying risks, reducing vulnerability and taking timely action.

Hamidreza Khanke, director of the Health Research Center in Accidents and Disasters, has emphasized the necessity of scientific risk management by referring to the existence of 53 known hazards in Iran; A management that requires public participation, family awareness and continuous education, from schools to higher levels.

When it rains, many hope to improve the condition of the dams and end the drought, but for a family whose house is in the path of flooding, the same rain can become a serious threat. These two facts do not contradict each other; Rain is essential for the country, but heavy rain in a short period of time and in vulnerable areas can be harmful. With the strengthening of the El Nino phenomenon, the important question is whether we should wait for a flooded autumn? And more importantly, if heavy rains occur, are we prepared to prevent loss and damage?

A member of the academic staff and director of the research group of meteorological hazards of the Natural Disasters Research Institute told Ambassador Arjan: "The answer to the first question requires scientific accuracy, but for the second question, you should not wait until the accident occurs."

Pointing to this year's slogan and emphasizing that the risk of flooding does not depend only on the amount of rain, Fatemeh Falahati continues: "Sometimes people think that if the rain is not heavy in their place of residence, there is no risk of flooding, while water can move from the heights or upstream points to the downstream areas. The experience of past floods shows that the risk is higher in places that have had a history of flooding or river flooding, but over time, with the continuation of droughts, the passage of water has been limited and settlements and infrastructures have been exposed to the flood flow.

He emphasizes: "In new crisis management approaches, effective warning is not just telling people that heavy rain is coming. "It should be determined which areas are at risk, what consequences may occur so that people have enough time to get away from the danger."

In floods, however, the problem is not only the prediction of rainfall; The question is how far the issued warnings have been able to protect people's lives. Did the residents of the areas at risk know the extent of the danger and the safe exit routes before the flood? Are dangerous roads and paths blocked in time? Was a specific decision made for the possible evacuation of houses located in the boundaries of rivers and canals? The answers to these questions can clarify at which stage the gap between risk prediction and protecting people's lives was created.

In September 1405, the National Meteorological Organization announced the possibility of more than normal rainfall in autumn, especially in parts of the west, southwest and slopes of Zagros. In further explanation, Fatemeh Falahati says: "It cannot be said that El Nino will definitely face Iran with extensive floods, nor can the possibility of heavy rains be ignored. Seasonal forecast tells us what conditions to prepare for; "Short-term forecasting and local warnings help us know when and where to act."

Field assessment for damage prevention

With the issuance of weather warnings, the issue is how well the responsible agencies are prepared to prevent possible damages? Fallahati says: "The answer to this question cannot be given just by declaring alertness or holding crisis management meetings. Preparation becomes meaningful when preventive measures have been taken in the field and their results can be evaluated. Before the start of heavy rains, several issues should be clear: Are the openings of the bridges and culverts prone to blockage cleared? Have urban and rural high-risk areas been identified? Are safe evacuation routes and emergency shelters clear? Is there a clear decision-maker and enforcement mechanism to close dangerous roads and evacuate flood-prone areas? It should also be asked whether meteorological information is linked to the status of rivers, watersheds and vulnerable infrastructure. Heavy rainfall warnings are most valuable when they lead to operational decisions. "Without a field evaluation and the publication of a clear report on the actions taken, it is not possible to give a definitive verdict on the adequacy of the devices' preparation."

In flood management, meteorological forecasting is only the first link in the warning chain. After that, the risk should be assessed for specific areas, information should reach the people, and the responsible agencies should implement measures such as blocking unsafe routes, evacuating flood-prone areas, and preparing relief routes in accordance with the level of risk. Therefore, even if the warning was issued in time, to evaluate the performance of crisis management, it is necessary to check what action each device took after receiving the warning and what was the result.

The country's crisis management law also emphasizes on evaluating the performance of responsible institutions. According to articles 24 and 25 of this law, the performance of the devices and the effectiveness of crisis management should be evaluated with indicators such as the death rate and economic damages caused by accidents.

From this point of view, the number of warnings issued or the forces declared on alert is not a sufficient measure of success. It should be clarified when the warnings were issued, when they reached the responsible agencies and people, what measures were taken in high-risk areas, and whether it was possible to prevent casualties or not. The publication of the results of such an assessment can determine whether the problem was predicted, communicated, decided or implemented preventive measures.

Falahati believes that the main responsibility for prevention rests with the responsible institutions, and people cannot be expected to compensate for the risk caused by improper construction, blockage of waterways, or weak infrastructure by following individual recommendations. However, people can reduce the possibility of damage by taking some simple measures, including avoiding unnecessary travel to mountainous areas, avoiding watching the flow of water in rivers and canals, and identifying safe exit routes.

In the end, Falahati reminds us that we should not wait for a crisis to occur and says: "The upcoming autumn should be considered as an opportunity to measure the country's readiness. The measure of success is not how many warnings we have issued. "The real measure is whether the warnings reached the people in time, the high-risk routes were made safe, and whether preventable losses and damages were avoided."

World Day for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction is an opportunity to remember that prevention should not remain on paper. The value of meteorological warnings is determined when they reach the people in time, make the responsible agencies take action and avoid preventable losses and damages; Before the next flood once again imposes the cost of delay in prevention with human lives and destruction of houses.