Myanmar's coup leader-turned-president wins over neighbors as war rages

ASEAN leaders welcome Min Aung Hlaing, but critics warn it will allow the military to continue bombing civilians.

YANGON, Myanmar – When Malaysia invited Myanmar's coup leader-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing for a visit in September, it insisted it was not a visit of gratitude. According to an official, the aim was to address the "long-standing issue" of refugees and migrants from Myanmar in Malaysia.

But when Min Aung Hlaing arrived in Kuala Lumpur last week, the former general - whose power sparked a devastating civil war in 2021 - was given a red carpet welcome, complete with a guard of honour.

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End of list After an official lunch on Thursday, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said Myanmar was prepared to return its nationals at its own cost, an appealing message in a country where anti-refugee sentiment is on the rise. Malaysia is home to about 193,000 Myanmar citizens, most of whom are from the Rohingya Muslim minority.

Min Aung Hlaing said, "Since the weather is favorable, I will send navy ships to bring them back to the country."

In turn, Anwar pledged to help reintegrate Myanmar into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the 11-member regional bloc that has banned Min Aung Hlaing from high-level meetings for refusing to implement his peace plan. Malaysia supported the plan, known as the Five-Point Consensus, which called for an end to violence and "constructive dialogue" between the warring parties.

Myanmar's civil war is now in its fifth year, and more than 100,000 people have been killed and at least 3.5 million displaced, according to monitoring groups.

"Malaysia will do everything possible to ensure that we... ultimately, consider Myanmar as part of our community of nations, without bias, and especially within the framework of ASEAN," Anwar told reporters.

Malaysia is the fifth ASEAN country to host since Min Aung Hlaing became president in April, following elections in December and January in which the main opposition parties were barred from participating. In recent months, he has visited Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos.

After his return from Malaysia, his spokesman said that Indonesia and Brunei could be next.

"Malaysia's return to Min Aung Hlaing broke the barrier of opposition to the junta," said Bridget Welch, an honorary fellow at the University of Nottingham's Asian Research Institute in Kuala Lumpur. Regional leaders who have welcomed Min Aung Hlaing, despite accusations of crimes against humanity, are putting pragmatism before human rights, he said.

"This is a step backwards for ASEAN as an organization and for Myanmar," he said. It does not provide any clear path to solve the problem of Myanmar's crisis and actually worsens it by giving military legitimacy at the international level, which it does not have in Myanmar itself."

Min Aung Hlaing's rehabilitation goes beyond Southeast Asia.

Since April, the former general has also visited India, China, Russia and Belarus. At each stop, he has tried to portray his government as stable and "on the road to democracy" while making trade and infrastructure deals.

The US even seems to have opened the door.

Khin Zaw Win, director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, said Min Aung Hlaing's quest for international legitimacy has been helped by concerted pressure from China, India and Thailand, which all share a border with Myanmar. These three neighbors have experienced the consequences of war, such as fighting near their borders, disruption of trade and influx of refugees.

Khin Zaw Win said the three countries "have the biggest stake in how Myanmar exits" and want to recognize the military-based government. "Convenience plays a role for all of them," he said.

However, growing diplomatic recognition has done little to resolve the conflict.

While Min Aung Hlaing has invited all armed groups to peace talks, fighting continues in most parts of the country. His forces have launched offensives to retake areas lost by armed opposition insurgents and ethnic armed groups in Rakhine, Chin, Kachin and Karen states and the Sagaing region. They were aided by an intensification of the air campaign and a recruitment drive that added tens of thousands to their ranks. China has also helped by brokering a ceasefire between the army and powerful ethnic armed groups on its border.

However, Letitia van den Assum, a former Dutch diplomat, said it was unlikely the military would regain control of the entire country.

"It requires a large occupying army and not - as now - a garrison army that controls a particular place," he said. "That's why Min Aung Hlaing... is betting on an increasing number of temporary ceasefires in some parts of the country so that troops can be diverted to areas where he wants to continue fighting."

Van den Assum said he found it "very surprising" that ASEAN countries are seeking the return of the Rohingya from the very man they accuse of orchestrating crimes against them.

Myanmar has long denied citizenship to the Rohingya, so it is unclear whether it will accept them as citizens. And with much of Rakhine state - their homeland - now in the hands of the ethnic Arakan army, it remains unclear where they will go.

"It's the blind talking to the blind," he said.

University of Sydney researcher Sai Ki Zin Su called the move a low-cost, high-optics move rather than a real political opening. He said the visit only confirmed that Aung San Suu Kyi was alive, "nothing more".

He noted that military airstrikes have continued unabated even as ASEAN leaders have rolled out the red carpet, including a September 28 attack on a market in Rakhine state that killed about 50 people.

He said the continued attacks were "the strongest evidence yet that soft diplomacy has had no deterrent effect".

Sai Kyi Zin Su also warned that the legitimacy conferred by foreign visits would further embolden the military.

"Given the near-total lack of deterrence, the failure to implement meaningful sanctions, ASEAN's shift toward re-engagement, and continued access to arms and fuel through China and Russia, the military has a structural incentive to continue escalation, especially in contested areas such as Sagaing and Rakhine, where its control is weakest," he said.

Much now depends on the Philippines and Singapore, the current and future ASEAN seats.

Phil Robertson, Asia's human rights and advocacy director, said the two countries must set an agenda that backs down sharply from demands by others in the region to "get Myanmar fully back on the field" and continue to push for the bloc's five-point peace plan.

He also called on the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia and the European Union to adopt targeted sanctions such as jet fuel bans instead of leaving the "whole Myanmar puzzle" to the regional bloc.

"International accountability is needed now more than ever, whether through more universal jurisdiction cases or some kind of progress to refer Myanmar's generals to the International Criminal Court," he added.