Amani: Public Presence Thwarted Enemy Plans to Destabilize the Country from Within

Qom – A former Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, stressing the role of public presence in confronting external threats, said social cooperation and national solidarity were key factors in foiling enemy schemes to create domestic instability.

According to Mehr reporter, Mojtaba Amani explained the dimensions of psychological warfare and its impact on public opinion on Thursday afternoon at the second international event of Basij students of Qom province, Mojtaba Amani: One of the main axes of psychological warfare is changing the framework of the narrative of developments and highlighting the weak points with the aim of diminishing the achievements. Therefore, a realistic analysis of events requires the separation of field realities from propaganda narratives.

He added: In order to evaluate the outcome of any war, one must first identify the goals pursued by the parties involved in the beginning of the war, and then examine the extent to which they achieved these goals, because the occurrence of human and material losses, although it is a bitter and undeniable fact, alone cannot be the final criterion for judging the strategic outcome of a conflict.

Referring to the experiences of the Islamic Republic of Iran in facing the threats and crises of the past few decades, the former ambassador of Iran in Lebanon said: The Islamic Revolution has faced many incidents and pressures during the years after the victory, and the examination of these experiences shows that in order to analyze the consequences of each crisis, a difference must be made between the costs imposed and the goals that the attacking side was trying to achieve.

Referring to the developments in the region after October 7th, Amani stated: the expansion of conflicts and the formation of multiple battle fronts, the initial calculations of the Zionist regime faced challenges and increased the military, political and economic costs of this regime.

Referring to the military model of the Zionist regime in past wars, he said: This regime has usually relied on implementing quick operations, delivering heavy blows in the initial stages and consolidating the initial achievements, but the continuation of conflicts can make it more difficult to achieve the desired goals and change the initial equations of the war.

War losses do not necessarily mean strategic failure

Referring to the eight-year imposed war, Amani said: "During the war, the loss of troops and the suffering of various losses are some of the bitter realities of the battlefield, but in order to judge the final result, it must be determined to what extent the attacking side has been able to achieve its goals."

He added: There is a difference between the damage caused to the countries during the war and the realization of the other side's strategic goals, and without paying attention to this distinction, it will not be possible to achieve an accurate analysis of military and political developments.

Referring to the assassination of the leaders and commanders of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the former ambassador of Iran in Lebanon said: The enemy was under the impression that by removing influential figures and commanders, it would weaken the political structure and create instability inside the country, but these actions led to the strengthening of community solidarity and the increase of people's resistance.

Amani continued: One of the consequences of hostile actions can be the intensification of hatred and enmity between nations for a long period, so that it becomes difficult to review relations and create fields of interaction in the future.

Emphasizing the role of the people in facing external threats, he noted: social presence and people's support are effective factors in dealing with plans aimed at creating internal instability, and the review of developments should be done by considering the role of society in political and security equations.

Lebanon's situation should be analyzed with its internal considerations

In another part of his speech, the former ambassador of Iran in Lebanon discussed the situation of this country and the role of Hezbollah and said: "Lebanon's political structure is different from the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the internal conditions, religious composition and political considerations of this country influence decisions and equations related to resistance."

Referring to the developments in southern Lebanon and the conflicts with the Zionist regime, Amani stated: The assessment of Hezbollah's situation requires simultaneous attention to the political and military conditions of Lebanon, the capabilities of the country's army and the threats caused by the actions of the Zionist regime.

He added: Examining Lebanon's developments without considering its political structure and internal limitations cannot provide a comprehensive picture of the country's conditions and the challenges facing the political and military currents.

Referring to the agreements related to the cessation of conflicts, Amani emphasized the necessity of reviewing the obligations of the parties involved and the role of the guarantor countries, and considered the developments related to these agreements to be part of the political and security equations of the region.

The war affects the energy market and the global economy

Referring to the economic dimensions of regional conflicts, Amani said: the consequences of war are not limited to the military field, and the resulting developments can also affect the energy market, oil prices, and international trade trends.

Emphasizing the importance of the Strait of Hormuz in the world's energy equations, he said: increasing uncertainty in energy transmission routes and intensifying regional tensions can create significant economic costs for different countries and make government decision-making more difficult.

Referring to the developments in the oil market and the political competition of the great powers, the former ambassador of Iran in Lebanon added: the economic consequences of the war can complicate the calculations of the governments and make the simultaneous management of military, political and economic crises a challenge.

In the end, Amani emphasized the necessity of understanding the dimensions of psychological warfare and pointed out: the correct analysis of the developments requires knowing the goals of the involved parties, examining the realities on the ground, and separating the damages caused by the war from the narratives that are presented with propaganda purposes.