Are the US elections exposed to foreign interference?

While American officials and experts are warning about the possibility of Russian and Chinese interference in this country's elections, the history of Washington's interventions in the political and electoral processes of other countries once again raises the issue of double standards in the face of electoral security. The American Council on Foreign Relations has also warned about the threats facing this country's elections, referring to the expansion of foreign influence operations and artificial intelligence capabilities.

According to Ambassador Arjan, US President Donald Trump warned in a televised speech in July that the country's electoral infrastructure is vulnerable to foreign attacks. He claimed that China tried to influence the voting process in the 2020 election, but did not provide any evidence of election interference or incorrect vote counting. His claims related to legal access to voter registration lists. Trump did not even raise this issue publicly during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping last month.

According to Ambassador Arjan's report, citing the American "Council on Foreign Relations" think tank, despite the subsidence of this controversy, the attempt of foreign countries to influence the American elections is still a serious concern. Over the past decade, Russia has used social media to exacerbate social and racial divides in America. Moscow's attempt to undermine Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election was the most famous example of these actions. China has also turned to influence operations, targeting candidates critical of Beijing's policies.

These countries may now take advantage of advances in artificial intelligence to expand and make their operations more effective. In a more dangerous scenario, efforts to influence public opinion could lead to voting disruption or vote count manipulation.

The administrations of Obama, Trump in the first term and Biden took measures to deal with foreign influence, limit the abuse of social networks and strengthen the security of the electoral infrastructure. However, the second Trump administration has canceled or scaled back many of these programs. The midterm elections are less than four weeks away, and the outcome could change control of Congress. Foreign interference, whether by distorting public debate or manipulating results, threatens trust in the democratic process.

Jessica Brandt, who headed the Center for Malicious Foreign Influence in the Office of the US Director of National Intelligence in the 2024 election, distinguished between "infiltration operations" and "election interference" in a conversation about these threats.

Influence operations include state media propaganda, covert dissemination of disinformation, illegal campaign financing, and the use of social media to undermine public confidence in elections. On the other hand, electoral interference refers to measures to disrupt voting or vote counting; From threatening to bomb polling stations and ransomware attacks to infiltrating voter databases or vote counting systems.

Foreign influence in American elections has a long history and has increased with the spread of social networks. However, it is difficult to determine the extent to which these operations affect the outcome of the election, as voter behavior is influenced by many factors. Also, so far no evidence has been provided of a large-scale and successful operation to actually change the results of the US election by a foreign government.

Two factors make such an intervention difficult; First, American elections are decentralized and administered by states and local districts, and there is no single system for voting. Second, trying to change the results of the election carries the risk of detection and strong reaction from Washington. According to Brandt, foreign governments know that meddling in US elections is a "red line".

Brandt, however, sees the cuts to agencies like the Foreign Malicious Influence Center, the FBI's Foreign Intrusion Task Force, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency as a big mistake. In his opinion, Russia and China see the influence operation as a low-cost way to intensify internal disputes in the United States. The role of state and local authorities in the protection of elections and the possibility of expanding influence operations with the help of artificial intelligence were other topics raised in this conversation.