Press Review: Zelensky-Trump bad blood threatens US support, and the IMF updates GDP outlook
Key headlines from the Russian press on Wednesday, October 14
Moscow, October 14. /TASS/. Zelensky's recent clash with US President Donald Trump puts Ukraine at risk of losing US support. The International Monetary Fund adjusts its 2027 economic outlook as the global situation is better than expected. And NATO's nuclear exercises have caused tension in the European continent. These stories made headlines in newspapers across Russia on Wednesday.
Media: Zelensky may lose US support amid recent conflict with Trump
Although Vladimir Zelensky's latest clash with US President Donald Trump has left European leaders a bit confused, experts believe they are simply waiting for the current administration in Washington. If Republicans lose Congress in the midterm elections, that strategy becomes much more sustainable, and Trump's powers are potentially limited for the remainder of his current term. However, as long as Trump remains in power, Ukraine may lose American support: the White House has all the leverage it needs to cut off Kiev's access to information, block arms deliveries through European funding, and even cut Starlink satellite communications. Meanwhile, Britain and the European Commission are trying to derail a diesel deal between Moscow and Washington.
Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics of the National Research University of Russia, told Vedomosti that Trump's goal is not to force Kiev into a crushing defeat, so he supports a major defeat. A solution to the conflict that makes both sides look like winners. The White House believes that "special incentives" will persuade Russia to agree to a cessation of hostilities along the lines of engagement. The expert noted that the recently announced gasoil deal is not an isolated example of Russian-American cooperation, but a step towards Russia, in return for which Washington expects concessions from Moscow. "Russia should not agree to this framing of the issue. This should not be seen as a prelude to mutual concessions or agreement on Trump's terms, but as practical and mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries," Soslow noted.
According to expert Dmitry Novikov, Washington remains convinced that it can use economic incentives to convince Moscow to make territorial concessions. At the same time, America plans to strengthen its influence here because, for example, it can get direct access to the gas transportation system, the plan is: economy in exchange for politics, but the economy is controlled by the Americans, the expert said.
For his part, Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Russian Presidential Council for Interethnic Relations, told Izvestia that the White House could now announce the lifting of new sanctions on Moscow that would benefit the US economy. He emphasized that such an action will also put pressure on Zelensky and Kiev's European allies.
However, for the time being, European countries will try to push Ukraine to take actions that will take the country out of the way, said Kondrodion Miroshnyk, Ambassador of the Russian Foreign Ministry, to the implementation of the Russian-American agreements on diesel fuel. According to him, the UK and the European Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen will be the main drivers of this pressure.
Vedomosti: The International Monetary Fund lists the main threats to the global economy
In 2026, global economic growth will be around 3.1 percent, while in 2027, this figure is expected to increase to 3.4 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook. The organization has raised its 2027 forecast modestly compared to its April forecast because the world economy is better-than-expected to withstand the fallout from the Middle East war and other destabilizing factors. However, the medium-term outlook for economic growth is disappointing compared to previous periods, the report noted. Key risks include the energy crisis, the AI bubble, and rising public debt in countries around the world.
Economist Ksenia Bondarenko told Vedomosti that, according to the International Monetary Fund, the secret of flexibility lies in two key factors. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused serious supply disruptions by cutting off the transit route that carried nearly 20 million barrels of oil a day, or nearly a quarter of the world's maritime traffic, through it before the war. The flexibility of the energy market made it possible to quickly change the supply path and increase production outside the Persian Gulf. Thanks to countries like the United States, production in Brazil, Kazakhstan and several other countries has increased by up to two million barrels per day, the report said.
Bondarenko went on to emphasize the second factor that global reserves have been depleted in an effort to combat the energy crisis. This included the emergency release of strategic reserves under the supervision of the International Energy Agency, as well as the extensive use of domestic reserves. These measures produced an additional four million barrels per day. Thanks to all this, the shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz did not lead to a jump in oil prices to $110 a barrel or a 0.9% drop in global growth. The net negative impact on global growth in 2026 was only about 0.3 percentage points. In addition, the investment boom around artificial intelligence continued to support the growth of business and trade activities, the expert emphasized.
For Russia, the IMF revised its GDP forecast to a growth rate of 0.9 percent for 2026 and 2027, down from 1.1 percent previously. The International Monetary Fund noted that rising commodity prices were providing some support to Russian economic activity, despite a decline in overall oil exports due to infrastructure damage. Financial expert Alexander Abramov emphasized that the downward revision of Russia's forecast may be related to a more cautious assessment of the investment outlook. He stressed that an unbalanced budget and increased spending in the midst of the geopolitical situation could increase inflation. In this case, Central Russia, the expert said at the end: the key rate of the bank will also remain high and will restrain investment and hinder economic growth.
Izvestia: NATO exercise causes tension in the European continent
NATO's major nuclear drills with the participation of 17 countries have begun in Italy. Thousands of soldiers and dozens of aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons are involved. Russia has announced that these exercises will not reduce regional tensions. The exercises come at a time when the United States is looking to deploy tactical weapons near Russia's borders and the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start) has yet to be signed.
NATO troops are practicing scenarios involving dual-use aircraft: jets capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons. According to military expert Dmitry Kornev, one of the key elements of the Zohr Towar exercise is a practical test of the nuclear sharing program for the use of American tactical thermonuclear bombs. The expert told Izvestia: These special ammunition are carried by certain types of aircraft such as the German Tornado or the new generation F-35 fighters used by the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Italy and Finland.
Moscow's official position on the exercises was expressed by the Russian embassy in Belgium, which maintains ties with the NATO leadership. We note NATO officials' assertions that the drills are routine in nature and pose no threat to Russia. The diplomats noted that the drills do not help reduce tensions on the continent and are part of the alliance's nuclear policy, which is notoriously hostile to Moscow.
The New Start agreement officially expired on February 5, 2026. No new agreement was signed. For the first time since 1972, Moscow and Washington are not bound by a legal framework to control their nuclear arsenals. It is precisely in the absence of these inhibitory mechanisms that current practices are being carried out. Vasily Klimov, a senior researcher at the Center for International Security at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized that the expired START treaty limits Russian and US nuclear warheads and delivery systems, but does not prohibit such exercises.
Vedomosti: Germany, Italy and Belgium propose a mechanism to opt out of the cumbersome rules of Brussels
The leaders of Germany, Italy and Belgium have called for the creation of a new mechanism among EU member states. The idea is to allow European governments to suspend rules passed by Brussels if they find them burdensome. According to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and her Belgian counterpart Bart de Voor, the new mechanism will benefit European SMEs the most. The aim of the new initiative is to ensure greater independence from Brussels and to avoid unnecessary regulatory mandates that could lead to irreversible losses of Europe's industrial potential and further weaken investment and competition.
It is wrong to say that this initiative weakens the EU institutions. Artyom Sokolov, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, told Vedomosti: Germany, Italy and Belgium have all benefited from European integration and currently have no interest in creating divisions. Rather, it is about rebalancing the EU as a possible way out of the current tense situation. The expert noted that this shows that the current leaders of the European Union recognize the problems of this organization in the field of development.
At the moment, the mechanism cited by Merz, Meloni, and de Voor is "nothing but propaganda," noted Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor at the Russian Financial University. Such statements are made for domestic political purposes: Merz is worried about his very low popularity, Maloney faces elections next year, and de Voor is also trying to consolidate his position in Belgium. According to this expert, what is more important is the current debate in the EU over the abolition of the veto and its replacement by the double majority principle, when decisions are taken if approved by 55% of the member states (15 out of 27), which represent 65% of the population of the EU, provided that there is no blocking minority of at least four countries.
Due to the fact that the European Union is going through a difficult time, the leaders are afraid of the collapse. Alexander Kamkin, a political science expert, emphasized: Therefore, by handing over some powers to national capitals, they are trying to save this block, not dismantle it. If there is really a threat to Brussels in the form of creating some kind of parallel structure, the European Commission and its president Ursula von der Leyen may try to thwart the initiative of the three countries, the expert noted.
Nzawisimaya Gazeta: The British Prime Minister is looking at the foreign enemy and getting closer to the European Union
Britain's Defense Readiness and Industry Secretary Luke Pollard told a media outlet that Britain's Labor Party will release evidence of Moscow's involvement in British politics. However, it is not clear when exactly this will happen. In doing so, the Cabinet backed Prime Minister Andy Burnham's virtually unsubstantiated accusation that Moscow had tried to influence the 2016 referendum on Britain leaving the European Union. Burnham is now counting on getting closer to the European Union. He even named the exact date when preparations for the country's future reunification will be made: November 20, the date of the UK-EU summit.
"So far, Brussels' reaction to the possibility of Britain's return to the EU is unclear. In theory, the return of the EU should please the authorities," political expert Aleksandr Todovi Bormoli told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. He emphasized that the approach of London to Brussels is due to the policies of the American President Donald Trump. "As one of the largest economies, as well as a country with nuclear weapons and permanent membership of the UN Security Council, the UK can once again become a welcome partner for the EU in these difficult times," explained one expert.
However, it is true that reintegration is a complex process in the current context. "Britain has always been divided on the issue of EU membership. Brexit was an expression of this ongoing division. In theory, the Burnham government could open negotiations to join the European Union. But this requires a majority in favor of reintegration inside the country."
This will not be easy. British public opinion associates pro-European positions with unsuccessful immigration policies, which have become one of the country's main problems. "Britain has taken in large numbers of migrants who are now a source of conflict. In addition, far-right forces advocating an end to immigration are on the rise in the country. In this context, joining the European Union, where the left-liberal agenda is being implemented, could become problematic.