How the Iran war will end is unclear!

One of the most dangerous moments of any war is when tactical successes lead to overconfidence at the strategic level. The destruction of Iranian planes, ships and command centers is measurable; But none of them specify how the war will end or what the consequences will be.

Washington should consider a series of "ifs" instead of focusing only on Iran. In Yemen, the Houthis can still threaten the security of Bab al-Mandab; On the other side of the Red Sea, the tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Nile and the instability of Sudan can complicate the crisis.

In such a situation, both the important maritime bottlenecks of the region, Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, are exposed to war at the same time, and disruption in shipping can have economic consequences beyond the Iranian battlefield.

Even a severely weakened Iran may use regional instabilities to complicate US and Saudi operations if it sees an opportunity. Therefore, America may achieve military success in Iran's battlefield, but at the same time, it will face a bigger strategic problem.

Trump may be right about Iran's weakness and even the near end of the war; But before declaring victory, military advisers should put a plan far beyond Tehran and Hormuz on the table and ask: "What if what we expect does not happen?"