Ground Attack on Neighboring Countries | Iran's New Card Against a Possible U.S. Strike? | Tehran's Confidential Message to Regional Countries
A new Wall Street Journal report points to Iran's reinforcement of nuclear and border fortifications, the rebuilding of its missile and drone capabilities, and preparations for a possible resumption of war.
According to the report of Ambassador Arjan, the sensitive part of this report is the claim of this media in the warning of the Iranian authorities to the regional parties that in case of another US attack, Tehran may expand the scope of its response; From attacking the vital infrastructure of Arab countries to the possibility of Iranian ground forces entering the territory of neighboring countries.
New fortifications around nuclear facilities
The Wall Street Journal claims that based on satellite images, Iran has strengthened the protection of some sensitive centers, including the Natanz and Koh Kalang facilities, in recent weeks. According to the satellite images of Ventor Company, which were analyzed by the American Institute of Science and International Security, embankments have been created around some of the entrances of these centers, which can make the possible operation of ground forces to penetrate the facilities more difficult.
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These measures are taken along with efforts to rebuild missile and drone infrastructure. Tehran has also announced that the country's airports, ports and power plants are prepared for war conditions and have taken measures such as shelters and backup reserves.
Alleged ground attack on countries in the region
The most important part of the Wall Street Journal report refers to the warnings that, according to informed sources, some Iranian officials have raised in private conversations with regional officials! According to this report, in the event of another US attack, Tehran may expand its response to measures beyond missile and drone attacks, and has even raised the possibility of ground forces entering neighboring countries.
This claim is strategically important, because it shows that Iran's deterrence message may no longer be limited to targeting American military bases or attacking specific targets. However, the report does not specify what type of operation, in which country and on what scale is meant by ground entry. Therefore, the interpretation of this warning as Tehran's definite decision for a large-scale ground attack on the countries of the region will go beyond the published information.
UAE, Saudi Arabia and threatened infrastructure
In addition to the possibility of ground operations, the Wall Street Journal claims that Iranian officials have warned the Arab parties in the region that if the war resumes, Saudi Arabia's oil facilities may also be targeted. Of course, in the meantime, the possibility of targeting the United Arab Emirates, data centers and internet cables in the region has also been discussed.
Tehran has also announced to the mediators that if the attacks start again, it will target the American forces more intensely; including by trying to sink American warships and causing casualties to their crews. These threats are raised in a situation where the US military presence in the region is being strengthened, and reports indicate the movement of the third aircraft carrier battle group towards the Middle East.
The importance of the threat to the economic infrastructure of the region lies in the fact that the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, in addition to hosting American forces and military facilities, depend on the security of their energy exports, ports, airports and communication networks. Damage to these infrastructures can extend the cost of war beyond the military and affect regional trade and investment as well.
Why is Tehran preparing for a possible war?
According to the Wall Street Journal, the direct conflict between Iran and the United States has largely stopped since the end of July, but neither side has stopped strengthening its military power and increasing pressure on the other. Washington has intensified the economic pressure and has made efforts to limit Iran's commercial connections; Tehran has also turned to rebuilding its missile and drone capabilities and strengthening the defense of sensitive centers.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East department of the Chatham House think tank, in the assessment quoted in the report, believes that the state of war readiness in the diplomatic, economic and political deadlock allows Iran to redefine the existing pressures in the framework of foreign confrontation.
Deterrent threat or a prelude to the expansion of war?
Donald Trump had announced that the US would not attack Iran before the November 3rd mid-term elections; However, US officials are still considering possible military options.
In such a situation, the threat of a ground attack on neighboring countries can be part of Tehran's effort to raise the cost of the decision to attack again. But if such threats turn into actual operations, the risk of the war spreading to Arab countries and more actors getting directly involved will increase.