US and Israel Seek Iran's Collapse; Return to the Past Is Not Possible

A permanent ceasefire is probably the best outcome we can hope for. Now that Israel and Washington have revealed their true agenda, namely the collapse of the Iranian government, there is no going back to the previous situation.

Ambassador Arjan; Mohammad Hasan Gudarzi- In a situation where the relations between Iran and the United States are faced with deep mistrust, military threats and disagreements over the future of the nuclear program and regional security, the prospect of reaching a lasting agreement is still unclear.

At the same time, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, the increase in energy costs and the approach of the US mid-term elections have complicated Washington's political and economic calculations. In the meantime, Israel's role in the American foreign policy and the possibility of changing the balance of power in the Middle East are also factors influencing the future of this conflict.

Jacob Mundy, associate professor and head of the Department of Peace and Conflict Studies at Colgate University, in an interview with Ambassador Arjan, considers the Trump administration to be the main obstacle to returning to the path of diplomacy and believes that the goals of America and Israel have exceeded the level of disagreement over the nuclear program.

In this interview, he examines the prospects of negotiations, the consequences of the continuation of the war and the possibility of changing the position of America in the Middle East.

* Considering the current state of Iran-US relations, in your opinion, what is the most important obstacle for the two sides to return to a stable agreement? Is the main dispute over the nuclear program or are there broader issues such as Iran's regional role and security guarantees?

The main obstacle is the Trump administration. A government that is dangerously incompetent and deeply divided within itself and heavily influenced by Netanyahu's rule. Factions in America and Israel want the collapse of Iran, similar to what happened in Libya, Syria and Iraq. How can you trust a negotiator who wants to destroy your country? We know that the Trump administration is using "negotiations" and "ceasefires" to buy time and rebuild US weapons systems, especially missile defense systems and cruise missiles.

* To what extent has the deep mistrust between Tehran and Washington become a structural obstacle to diplomacy? Even if the two sides agree on key issues, can they really trust each other to keep their commitments?

- It is possible that at this stage, the conditions have exceeded the possibility of reaching an agreement or peace. Trump and Israel have turned a negotiable issue, i.e., nuclear weapons, energy and technologies, into a critical issue for Iran's survival: will Iran continue to exist with its current form of government or within the framework of its current social and territorial structure?

When it became clear that Israel and America are now seeking to "Syrianize" Iran, the nature of the conflict changed. In academic language, we call this situation "Game of Chicken"; A situation in which two cars move towards each other to determine which driver is a coward and changes his path to avoid a collision. But if neither party is willing to look like a coward, the result can be disastrous. In fact, this war has already been disastrous for many Iranians and parts of the global economy.

* The Strait of Hormuz is one of the main points of dispute. Can this strait ultimately be an effective pressure lever for Iran in the negotiations, or will the costs caused by the shipping restrictions - which Iran itself also bears - make the use of this lever an unsustainable strategy?

- Currently, the Strait of Hormuz is an important pressure lever for Iran; Because America and China are still consuming their strategic oil reserves. As the winter season approaches, we will see an increase in the price of energy for heating and the harvest of autumn crops. This is one of the reasons for the new agreement between Trump and Putin about diesel fuel; A fuel that is vitally important for harvesting agricultural products.

As we saw after the closure of the Suez Canal in the aftermath of the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, technological adaptations can be made quickly; For example, giant oil tankers were used to transport oil from the Persian Gulf while Egypt kept the Suez Canal closed. These tankers removed a part of Egypt's pressure lever.

Today, efforts will be made to create new pipelines to weaken Iran's pressure on the Strait of Hormuz. However, the completion of these pipelines will take years.

*How do you evaluate Israel's role in the future of Iran-US relations? If Washington and Tehran move towards negotiations, can Israel influence this process?

Israel is currently extremely unpopular in America. The American elections this November and in 2028 will become a kind of referendum on US-Israel relations. Therefore, Israel will try to use the last two years of the Trump administration to consolidate its position in the American empire as much as possible; As we have seen in the new defense partnerships between Israel and America.

The most powerful part of the "Israel lobby" in America are the arms companies that benefit the most from this relationship; including Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. Israel's most important benefit for these companies is its ability to test these weapons in real conditions; For example, what happened during the genocide in Gaza.

American citizens do not have much control over their country's foreign policy, but there is widespread anger over America's relationship with Israel.

*If Iran-US negotiations resume, what would be the most realistic type of agreement? Is it possible to return to the original agreement or does the current situation require a completely different agreement?

A permanent ceasefire is probably the best outcome we can hope for. Now that Israel and Washington have revealed their real agenda - the collapse of the Iranian government - there is no going back to the past. The spread of nuclear weapons throughout the Middle East is now inevitable.

* In America, the possibility of war with Iran has been raised simultaneously with the increase in energy costs and the approaching mid-term elections. To what extent can public opinion, economic costs of war, and electoral considerations influence the Trump administration's decisions about continuing the conflict or negotiating with Iran?

Mid-term elections in America - the elections that are held between two presidential elections - usually end up in favor of the opposing party. The elections of the House of Representatives and the Senate in November this year will become a referendum on the second term of Trump's presidency. Current polls show that both houses of Congress will fall to the Democratic Party.

With the increase in the cost of living in America, including the price of energy on the eve of winter, the people of this country are very angry; Especially the costly and pointless war against Iran, which is the most unpopular war in American history.

However, the new Congress will not be installed until January. Therefore, Trump has a few more months to continue the war against Iran.

* If the Democrats take control of one or both houses of Congress in the midterm elections, to what extent can they limit the Trump administration's ability to continue military operations or maintain a "maximum pressure" policy against Iran?

Democrats will take control of Congress, but the main question is how much control they will have. There may be efforts to stop the war against Iran, but it is also possible that Trump will have at least 33 senators in support of the war; A number that could block efforts in the Senate to stop the war or defund it.

However, the imperialist currents in the Democratic Party will continue to support the sanctions against Iran and the continuation of the alliance with Israel. We will see more anti-imperialist Democrats in Congress, but they will not hold a majority.

* If the current situation - neither a full-scale war nor a stable agreement - continues, what will be the most important consequence for Iran, America and the Middle East? Will such a situation eventually lead to an agreement or increase the risk of a new round of conflict?

- This situation will turn into a real cold war, but I think many leaders of the Middle East now understand the dangers of relying on America for security. All of America's "security guarantees" and its military bases in the Middle East have only made the region more insecure.

In my view, it is significant that Saudi Arabia has not joined the Ibrahim Accords and is instead seeking to establish different security partnerships. Israel and the United Arab Emirates have been criticized more and more due to their destabilizing and genocidal policies, and the public opinion of the world is turning against them.

China will inevitably become more powerful than America, and as a result, the future of the Middle East will move towards Beijing. As we now see, the end of the American empire will be violent and destabilizing; But this process cannot be reversed, no matter how hard Trump, Biden and other imperialists try.