Global Gold Falls | Oil Rises on Supply Concerns | Federal Reserve Official: No Need for Rate Hike in 2027

Gold retreated ahead of the release of US inflation data, while oil rose on fresh attacks in the Middle East. Markets are waiting to see how far higher energy costs will spread to the prices of other goods and services in the US, and what effects this will have on monetary policy and Federal Reserve decisions.

world economy; Daniyal Rahimi; The US September inflation report will be published today at 16:00 Iran time; Data that can change interest rate expectations and the path of gold, the dollar index and bonds.

Economists polled by Reuters expect overall US inflation to increase 0.6 percent monthly in September; The annual rate is also likely to reach from 3.4 to 3.6 percent. For core inflation, excluding food and energy, the market forecast is for a monthly growth of 0.2% and an annual rate of 2.5%; Therefore, it is expected that the monthly rate of increase in core prices will decrease, but its annual rate will increase slightly.

The Bloomberg survey also expects a monthly growth of 0.6% in total inflation and 0.2% in core inflation.

Among institutions, Goldman Sachs forecasts headline inflation at 0.59 percent monthly and 3.7 percent annually, and sees figures of 0.24 percent and 2.46 percent for core.

JPMorgan also has a softer estimate for the core: 0.18% monthly and 2.4% annually. The difference between these two institutions in the monthly core growth is limited, and both figures are 0.2% by rounding to one decimal place.

BMO strategist Ian Lingen also told MarketWatch that today is likely to confirm expectations for a Fed pause in October, but significantly higher-than-expected inflation could reignite concerns that monetary policy is lagging behind price pressures.

gold; Pull back despite diminishing returns

A cash ounce of gold reached $4,143 in Wednesday trading with a drop of about 0.3% compared to the end of Tuesday.

Reuters has highlighted caution ahead of inflation and oil growth; High energy prices keep worries of higher interest rates alive.

An Iranian analyst also told this media that if the upward trend of the dollar ends, gold can return to the range of 4,500 to 4,700 dollars in the last months of the year.

oil; Supply security concerns remain

After the initial jump, oil gave back some of its growth. Brent for December delivery reached $105.83 and Texas for November delivery reached $94.71; respectively, about 0.1 and 0.6 percent higher than Tuesday's price.

The UBS bank analyst considers the attacks in Hormuz and the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis to be the cause of export concerns, although exports have been maintained so far.

On the other hand, Hiroyuki Kikukawa of Nissan Securities, in an interview with Reuters, identifies the hope of Russian diesel as the limiting factor for volatility.

In today's report, the International Energy Agency takes a more cautious view: damage to Russian refining capacity will reduce the effect of lifting export restrictions, and diesel shortages may continue until 2027. Despite the expected drop in demand, this institution still sees a supply deficit until the end of the year.

currency pairs; The dollar index fell

The dollar index was slightly away from the 18-month peak and was around 102.15; The euro reached $1.1205 and the dollar was near 158.4 against the yen, and the yen strengthened slightly.

Reuters considers the decline in yields and a softer perception of the statements of the Federal Reserve officials as the factors behind the dollar's retreat.

An analyst told Reuters that higher-than-expected inflation could push the euro below the weekly low of 1.1152 and even to $1.10; But for the end of the year, he is less pessimistic, expecting lower US yields. France's budget worries have also kept pressure on the euro.

US stocks; Caution before inflation

Before Wall Street opened, S&P 500 futures were up about 0.2 percent, but Nasdaq 100 futures were almost flat. Reuters reports on the relative calm of artificial intelligence stocks after recent sales; However, the increase in oil prices and the expectation of inflation have kept investors cautious.

Long-term bond yields fell

The two-year yield reached 4.78%, the ten-year yield reached 5.20%, and the thirty-year yield reached 5.55%; All three are about one to two basis points lower than yesterday. On the other hand, the yield of one- to six-month bonds increased. The drop in long maturities is the continuation of their retreat compared to the previous week.

The Wall Street Journal considers Brent's fall and AI stocks' pullback on Tuesday as supporting factors for bonds; Williams' words also moderated concerns about a rate hike next year. Today's inflation makes the future path of bond yields more clear, but in long-term maturities, the reduction of expectations from the continuation of interest rate increases has been able to slow down the growth of yields of these bonds to some extent.

interest rate outlook; Discussion on the continuation of the path

Fedwatch today shows the possibility of rate stabilization at the October 28 meeting at 78.4% and an increase at 21.6%; Half a percentage point increase in the probability of stabilization compared to yesterday.

The Wall Street Journal has reported an 88% chance of an increase by December.

In an October 13 interview with Bloomberg, John Williams still sees another increase this year as appropriate, but does not see a need for an increase in 2027 for now. He considers the pressure of energy and technology investment to be inflationary in the short term, and he expects inflation to approach the target next year as the effect of tariffs and energy fades.

Speaking to Reuters, PIMCO's chief investment officer sees rate stabilization in October as likely, but leaves open the possibility of one or two more hikes before the end of the cycle.

After today's inflation, The Beige Book provides a fresh picture of pricing and demand. Thursday, October 15, producer inflation, retail sales and unemployment insurance claims are ahead.

Varash's conversation with the head of the International Monetary Fund on Friday morning, Iran time, is important for clarifying the position of the head of the Federal Reserve, and investors are looking for clues from his words.