AMB GORDON SONDLAND: Needling Ukraine, Russia and China

Trump's Ukraine strategy aims to reshape the global chessboard against China, but Volodymyr Zelensky must adapt his approach to survive.

Ukraine says Russia continues to attack energy facilities after Trump announces energy truce.

Let's get the basics out of the way. Ukraine has its own problems of corruption and political inefficiency. But, in this war, Ukraine is undoubtedly the good guy. The Russian invasion was unprovoked, unjustified and indefensible. Vladimir Putin is an aggressor. Volodymyr Zelensky defends his country. period

Now let's talk about the geopolitical reality. Donald Trump is trying to do something far more ambitious than ending the war in Ukraine. He is trying to arrange the strategic chessboard for the next few decades. Understanding this goal is essential to understanding his seemingly contradictory decisions.

The United States has one real long-term strategic rival: China. Russia is dangerous, has nuclear weapons and can destroy its neighbors. But Russia is also a declining power, with an economy dependent on natural resources, a deteriorating population, and ambitions that, while implausible, are largely regional. China is something else. Beijing seeks to challenge America's economic, technological and military leadership globally. This country has the industrial capacity, financial resources and strategic patience to pursue this ambition for generations. China's challenge is in a different category altogether.

With a massive naval maintenance bill due in 2031, China's long-term finances are wet

Here's Trump's problem: Europe is not yet strong enough to contain Russia without significant American support. Despite years of promise, many NATO allies remain dependent on American military capabilities, intelligence, logistics, and leadership. Until Europe can largely manage Russia on its own, the United States must continue to devote enormous resources to European security. Any additional weapons systems, dollars, and hours of strategic attention by Moscow are a resource unavailable to deter Beijing or counter other threats around the world.

Trump is trying to change this equation. His ostensible goal is to create the conditions under which Russia can eventually become a more normal, economically engaged country, rather than a permanent enemy that demands America's undivided attention. Think of it as strategic triage. In the long run, we want a fully engaged Russia that has something meaningful to lose, but still needs a good nudge from time to time to remind Putin and his successors to stay out of Europe. This result is far better than an isolated and permanently militarized Russia, which is pushed more and more into China's arms.

As Trump's push exposes Western Europe's defense rift, NATO's eastern flank races to rearm.

This does not mean trusting Putin. It means understanding his motives. Putin wants two things: money and real estate. He wants the economic benefits of international interaction and the territorial advantages of empire. Trump is uniquely positioned to provide the former while making the latter very expensive. This is the needle that Trump is trying to thread.

But, he is proposing it at the same time as balancing competing global markets: keeping energy prices under control, maintaining pressure on Iran, deterring China, supporting Israel, reassuring allies and protecting the American economy. Europe's continued military dependence makes all calculations more difficult. And until Europe can truly assume primary responsibility for its own defense, America cannot simply disengage from Russia, no matter how much we want to focus our resources elsewhere.

Which brings us to Zelensky. I have great respect for his courage and determination. And when Ukraine attacks Russian oil refineries, the military logic is obvious. Oil revenues fund Putin's war machine. When conducted within the framework of the laws of war, disrupting them is a legitimate strategic objective. Zelensky is right to hit Russia where it hurts. But it is not always enough to be right. An attack that would make perfect sense to Ukraine's military planners could complicate Trump's larger negotiations, disrupt energy markets and create political problems at home.

Zelensky's first responsibility is the survival of Ukraine. Trump's first responsibility is America's interests. These interests are highly overlapping, but not identical. Here's what Zelensky needs to know: Trump isn't just Ukraine's main supplier of weapons, intelligence and money. He is a strategic partner managing a much larger set of global engagements. Zelensky should stop approaching Washington with a shopping list and start asking a different question: Mr. President, what can Ukraine do to help you achieve your broader goals while protecting our sovereignty?

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This is not capitulation. This is a complicated diplomacy. This means coordinating major military and economic initiatives before they are caught off guard. This means understanding America's energy concerns and domestic political pressures. That means giving Trump practical ways to show progress, not just asking for more help. And that means that Trump's ability to retain American support depends in part on convincing Americans that his policies are working.

There's another fact that diplomats often prefer not to discuss: Donald Trump drives foreign policy to an extraordinary degree through personal relationships. I worked for him. i know The conventional diplomatic playbook emphasizes prepared meetings, formal communication, and bureaucratic coordination. Trump cares a lot about personal access and whether someone knows what they're trying to achieve. The late diplomat George Ball captured an enduring truth: "There is nothing like proximity." In plain English, proximity is important.

Trump negotiators Vitkov, Kushner meet Putin in Moscow as US seeks end to Russia-Ukraine war

Zelensky should talk to Trump constantly. Not once a month. Not only when it needs another weapon pack. almost every day Sometimes to discuss the battlefield. Sometimes to share intelligence. Sometimes to float an idea, sometimes just to tell a joke or share gossip. When thousands of people die in Ukraine, it may seem insignificant, but it is not. Personal familiarity builds trust. Trust creates access. Access creates penetration.

Even Steve Wittkoff and Jared Kushner, with their near-hourly access to Trump, can sometimes be surprised by a decision. This is the nature of his personal and unusually fluid decision-making process. Imagine the disadvantage of a foreign leader who relies exclusively on traditional diplomatic channels. Zelensky cannot bear this loss.

There is also the unpleasant matter of American politics. Trump needs Republicans to retain control of the Senate in November. Zelensky needs Ukraine to survive next winter. To a neutral observer, these goals are hardly equivalent. However, for any leader, they are critical. Should Zelensky interfere in the American elections? Absolutely not. Should he understand Trump's political pressures and help create conditions under which continued US support for defense becomes easier? absolutely

There is a big difference between helping a political party and helping the president of the United States show his foreign policy is producing results. Zelensky should be looking for opportunities to do the latter every day. Understanding Trump's political limitations is not the same as surrendering Ukraine's interests. This country knows that the most effective way to secure American support is to make Ukraine's success part of Trump's success.

But this deal should be done both ways. Zelensky cannot be expected to curb attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure while Putin continues to attack Ukraine's power plants, cities, and civilian infrastructure. Ukraine has already indicated its willingness to consider mutual restraint. This desire must be met by Russian action, not simply another American plea for Ukraine's patience. If Trump wants Zelensky to align with his broader strategy, Trump must use America's enormous economic leverage to compel Putin to do so.

That means no unilateral rewards for aggression, no permanent lifting of sanctions in exchange for temporary gestures, and no deal that leaves Ukraine defenseless while Russia rearms. Temporary diesel arrangements or suspension of sanctions are not normalization. It is a tactic. True normalization requires verifiable Russian behavior and meaningful consequences for re-aggression. Putin wants economic engagement. Trump controls much of what makes this interaction possible. This leverage should be used to secure lasting benefits, not traded for another ephemeral promise.

Meanwhile, Europe must step up. US military transformation cannot remain Europe's primary insurance policy indefinitely while simultaneously preparing for the much larger strategic challenge posed by China. The ultimate prize is not a handshake with Putin or another announcement from the White House. This is a Europe capable of defending itself, a Russia with powerful incentives to stay within its borders, and an America free to focus its strategic weight where the greatest long-term danger lies.

Until Europe reaches that point, Trump must balance competing military, economic and political demands that Zelensky cannot ignore. And Trump must recognize that Ukraine's survival is essential to validating his larger strategy. Zelensky needs Trump's leverage, weapons and economic power. Trump needs Zelensky's cooperation to create a lasting settlement rather than a show-stopping solution. Putin must understand that he cannot play them against each other indefinitely.

The message to Zelensky is simple: Help Trump succeed in his larger geopolitical mission, and insist that Ukraine's survival be part of that success. The message to Trump is equally simple: give Zelensky a reason to trust that helping you won't cost his country. Neither of these two people need to give up their interests. Both need to understand the other.

This is how it works when transactional diplomacy works well. And this is how you thread the needle.

Gordon Sundland served as the 20th US Ambassador to the European Union. He is the founder of Provenance, a national hospitality business, and the author of Sent: Mastering the Art of Diplomacy with Trump and the World.

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