David Marcus: In Middle America, four issues will decide the Senate, and none of them are affordable.

Ground reports show that fraud in Minnesota, growth in Ohio and culture in Texas are driving the 2026 midterm races more than affordability.

Voters are talking about important issues with the midterms on the horizon

The Faulkner Focus hosts a panel of Republican, Democratic and independent voters to discuss the major issues shaping the midterm elections, including the economy, inflation and conflict in the Middle East.

For nearly a year now, the chatterbox hypothesis has been that the 2026 midterm elections will be decided on the issue of affordability, but on the ground, in the middle states that determine control of the Senate, it's local issues that dominate, not the nebulous and overarching issue of prices.

Part of the problem with the nationalization of the affordability issue is that it originated in New York City with the current socialist mayor Zahran Mamdani's campaign. But Gotham is a unique case that is always very expensive. The last time Manhattan was affordable was when the Dutch bought it from the Indians.

In the middle of the country, including Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota and Texas, all of which this column visited last month, the economy is a big issue, as polls show, but it's not the existential crisis we talked about for voters in 2022 or 2024.

David Marcus: In Springfield, Ohio, only Trump can fix the Maga Chamber of Commerce rift.

Reggie was referring to Ohio's decision to temporarily suspend the gas tax, which resulted in prices below $4 in the Buckeye State.

David Marcus: In Dayton, Ohio, both parties face bitter political disappointment

In fact, in no state visited by this column did the cost of living appear to be a major factor for voters. So what is it? Let's take it state by state.

The cleanest and clearest way to know what makes each voting community tick is that in Minnesota, almost everyone I talked to brought up fraud without condoning it.

David Marcus: Peggy Flanagan's DEI record and fraud scandal put Minnesota Senate race in the spotlight

Over the past year, the scope and scale of fraud in Minnesota's Somali community has come to light, and it's something that Democratic Lt. Gov. and Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan can't escape, and her GOP challenger, Michelle Tafoya, rightly milks like a top Minnesota state heifer.

When it comes to the economy, Americans are not afraid, but they do have questions and doubts.

It's a race that almost no one expected to be competitive just a few months ago, but that's because the pundits were reading the national mood, not the Minnesota mood that's only found on Earth, and it's so angry.

Dayton, Ohio is full of absolutely lovely people, many of whom I spoke to, and I wish I could say kinder things about it, but the town is absolutely dead. Stunningly beautiful buildings are abandoned, like stark reminders of better days.

What Daytonites, as well as Ohioans in general, want and need is growth. It's not that they can't make a living, it's that their polls aren't thriving, they're not growing, and they want to know if a great country can be great again.

The blue wave looks real until you look a little closer

In a race between Republican incumbent Sen. John Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown, the winner will be whoever can convince Ohio voters that they have a plan to bring back cities like Dayton.

Compared to Dayton, Ohio, Grand Rapids, Michigan looks like Oz. As my Uber driver told me while driving, "Everyone I drop off at the airport is raving about the city. So are you." And here we are.

Like Detroit, which this column recently visited, Grand Rapids is a bustling city, with wealthy manufacturers roaming the streets discussing deals and going to lunch. You also see children downtown that scream not only wealth, but authenticity.

Liz Peek: Two Troubled Senate Races Could Ruin Democrats' Blue Wave Fantasy

In the Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abd al-Said, the key issue is who can sustain the growth Michigan has experienced and who gets the credit: Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or President Donald Trump.

Texas is another state where the most important issue is not economic, but in this case, cultural. Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has been universally heralded as the worst candidate for 2026, and yet not only is he a successful attorney general, he's undeniably Texan for all his great faults.

In James Talarico, Hayek is a once-vegetarian, Unitarian-style Christian Democrat who has admitted that his biggest concern in life is making sure trans kids have access to controversial surgical procedures. Now that Tallerico is back from his two-week flu, the cultural questions will be hot and heavy, and he doesn't have good answers for them.

Everyone is watching Texas and Michigan. As a pollster, I know where the real story is

When it comes to the economy, Americans are not afraid, but they do have questions and doubts. Greg walked in while I was talking to Reggie in Springfield. He sells stand-alone lawn mowers to golf courses and commercial parks.

Finally, Reggie, who is building again, asked a little nervously, "How good are self-driving forklifts?"

Greg confirmed that the forklifts are getting pretty good, but he added something interesting. "A landscaping company doesn't make money off the lawnmower guy," he said, adding, "They make money off the mowing and edging guy. Now it's two people and you can do an extra job every day."

I'm not sure if Reggie was completely convinced or relieved. I'm not sure if I had it or not, but it's a level of economic anxiety that exists in middle America, not a fear of whether to put food on the table.

These four key Senate races will be won by the candidates who best understand the local issues in their states, not the ones who are surprised on national television by disturbing issues, and right now, in all four, it's the Republicans who have the upper hand on those issues.

David Marcus is a columnist based in West Virginia and the author of "Charade: The Covid Lies That Tore a Nation apart."

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