What actors target Syrian gas transmission lines?

Sabotage against Syrian gas lines, Damascus's attempt to become the region's energy corridor has faced security threats and investors' doubts. Post What actor is targeting the Syrian gas transmission lines? It first appeared in Safir Arjan.

According to Ambassador Arjan, Dekradel website published a note and claimed: In recent weeks, gas transmission lines in eastern Syria and areas close to Damascus have been targeted by explosions. Attacks that have disrupted the process of gas transmission to power plants and cut off electricity in wide areas. Two attacks on parts of the "Jabse" gas transmission line were officially declared as acts of sabotage.

Another explosion in "Tashreen" power plant is still under investigation. The time of these attacks has attracted attention; Because Syria is negotiating to play a role in the routes that will transport Iraqi oil and regional gas to the Mediterranean Sea and beyond.

Even a limited attack on a pipeline could delay the repair process, reduce electricity production and cause uncertainty for investors considering multibillion-dollar projects.

The main question is who benefits from the vulnerability of the Syrian energy network and to what extent the available evidence can provide information about the perpetrators of these attacks.

Jabse gas line and explosion of Teshreen power plant

The first confirmed incident occurred on August 18; when an explosion stopped pumping in the gas export line from the Jabsa gas facility in the suburbs of Hasakah, in northeastern Syria. The Syrian Oil Company announced that the initial investigations of the company show that this incident was a deliberate and sabotage act.

This transmission line is located in an area that houses a significant part of Syria's oil and gas infrastructure, and its shutdown disrupted the transmission of gas to power generation turbines. The technical forces isolated the wells, closed the safety valves and started the repair operation. There were no casualties in this incident.

The first attack showed how damaging a valve or a small section of a transmission line can have consequences beyond the scene; In such a way that electricity consumers in other areas also pay for it.

On September 28, the Jabsa gas line was attacked again near Al-Shula area in the suburbs of Deir Ezzor. The explosion in a shut-off valve caused a fire and once again the flow of gas from Jabsa to the power plants was stopped.

The Syrian Minister of Energy, Mohammad al-Bashir, later announced that explosives were used in the attack. This time, repair teams will have to replace an 18-meter section of a 16-inch pipe. The Syrian Oil Company announced that after the end of the repair operation, the gas transfer was resumed on October 2.

According to the manager of the company's onshore gas department, this line used to transport about 950,000 cubic meters of gas daily. Therefore, its repeated targeting has affected an important part of the gas supply network on which Syria's electricity production depends.

The Jabsah line is fed through the central gas network, including the Farqals area in the east of Homs. This issue becomes more important in a situation where Damascus is trying to rebuild the existing infrastructure and create new cross-border energy routes.

The proposed project to transfer Iraqi oil to the port of Banias on the Syrian coast is a separate project, and there is no evidence that the attacks against the Jabsa line targeted that line. However, the damage to active energy facilities is a clear warning to governments and companies that plan to build a larger energy transmission network on Syrian soil.

In order to invest in such projects, these players need to ensure that the long pipeline routes, pumping equipment and the staff responsible for their maintenance will have sufficient security.

On September 30, two more violent incidents took place. In Masyaf Bridge, west of Homs, unknown gunmen opened fire on a bus carrying civilian workers, killing seven and wounding four. Initial reports from Syrian Ambassador Arjan (SANA) identified the men as civilian workers, while some regional reports identified them as engineers and employees of a private electricity company. This attack occurred two days after vandalism in al-Shula area, but so far no official investigation has established a connection between the two incidents.

That same night, an explosion occurred in the gas transmission line feeding the Tashrin thermal power plant in the suburbs of Damascus. This incident caused Tashrin, Deir Ali and Al-Nasiriyah power plants to go out of service and cause a wider power outage. Firefighters managed to contain the fire and Syrian authorities began the process of restoring the gas flow.

Unlike the two incidents related to the Jabseh line, when the Minister of Energy, Mohammad Al-Bashir, visited the site of the explosion, the cause of the accident was still unknown. After the area cools down, investigators will determine whether the explosion was caused by a technical malfunction, an attack or sabotage, he said.

Which actor benefits from the weakening of Syria?

So far, the Syrian government has not identified any party as the cause of sabotaging the gas transmission lines. However, Bassel Al-Mohammed, journalist and political writer, in an interview with Cradle website, believes that continuous attacks against important gas facilities cannot be considered as a series of isolated incidents.

According to him, the consequences of these attacks go beyond physical damage to a valve or part of the pipeline. Any stoppage in the activity of the energy network reinforces the perception that Syria is an unsafe environment for investing in energy infrastructure; It is in the situation that Damascus is trying to find partners to rebuild this sector and connect it to neighboring countries.

Al-Mohammed believes that Israel is one of the most important parties that may benefit from Syria's economic and security weakness. He claims that a government that faces difficulties in rebuilding its infrastructure will be less able to resist pressure in any political or security agreement.

He also mentions the possible role of Syria in the Arab gas pipeline; The route that connects the border of Jordan to the border of Turkey through Syrian territory and has become important in the situation that the countries of the region are looking for routes that are less vulnerable to possible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

From Al-Mohammad's point of view, the geographical dispersion of the attacks, including the damage to the Tashrin facilities, raises the question of whether a group with detailed knowledge of vital facilities is active in several different areas.

On September 29, that is, between the two incidents of al-Shula and Tishreen, the Syrian Oil Company opened another part of the Arab gas pipeline project in Farqals region. The Syrian authorities announced that the newly completed section has added 186 km to the existing 380 km line and has increased the length of the connected network to about 566 km; A capacity that, according to the official announcement, can transfer up to 11 million cubic meters of gas per day.

The two-way design of this line allows Damascus to have a prominent bargaining role in the future negotiations about the flow of gas transmission. However, in the current situation, the route of gas transmission to Europe remains a perspective; Because the necessary agreements about energy supply and transmission have not been finalized yet.

If these routes move more gas northward in the future, they may compete with some plans to expand Israeli gas exports from eastern Mediterranean fields, including the Leviathan and Tamar fields. The extent of this competition will depend on supply contracts, prices and actual capacity operated, and the mere existence of a pipeline alone cannot guarantee such competition.

However, Al-Mohammed believes Israel has a strategic interest in limiting Syria's ability to become a reliable energy conduit; Especially when Damascus is still under Israeli military pressure in the south of the country.

Israel's Energy and Computing Paths

The competition over the future of Syria is part of a wider competition over the routes that carry the oil and gas of Iraq and the Persian Gulf countries. Turkey's plans to export energy through the port of Ceyhan and Syria's efforts to reopen export routes to the Mediterranean Sea could provide producers with alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz.

However, many of these routes are still under proposal or infrastructural reconstruction plans and cannot be considered viable alternatives to established export terminals in the Persian Gulf. The realization of these projects depends on financing, security, technical studies and agreement between the governments involved.

Treating all of these routes as existing schemes would both exaggerate the extent of Syria's current influence and overstate the immediate threat of these highways to competing energy transfer centers.

In February, "Cradle" magazine, referring to the possible role of Israel and the gas transferred to Syria through Jordan, stated that the transparency of the contracts is limited and it will be difficult to determine the exact source of each gas shipment. After that, the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies published materials about the indirect transfer of Israeli gas to Syria through regional arrangements.

A more diverse energy supply network can reduce Syria's dependence on these routes; But the claim that the creation of new transmission lines will make Damascus and Amman completely cut off Israeli gas goes beyond the information that the existing contracts confirm.

In July, Syria and Iraq signed memorandums of understanding to restore the old and inactive Kirkuk-Banias oil line. Youssef Qalavi, the head of the Syrian Oil Company, announced that it is possible to start the implementation of this project in the first quarter of 2027.

This route can provide an outlet for Iraqi crude oil to the Mediterranean Sea; However, it still faces serious engineering, financial and security hurdles. The signed agreements only reflect the political commitment of both sides to explore this corridor, not to complete a new pipeline.

Syria's port facilities on the Mediterranean coast will also need more capacity building and security protection for the sustainable transfer of oil exports, if the project progresses.

Aziz Musa, a researcher of security issues, evaluates the recent vandalism as a possible message in the region. In an interview with "Cradle", he places Israel among the possible suspects; Because according to him, Tel Aviv has continued to pressure Damascus and has also started operations in Quneitra.

In his view, repeated strikes on energy facilities could increase the fragility of Syria's security, reduce confidence in the reconstruction process, and complicate plans to create an energy corridor. He also believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have political reasons for increasing pressure on Syria.

However, Musa emphasizes that none of these considerations prove that Israeli planes or drones were responsible for these attacks; The Syrian authorities have not yet provided any evidence about the Israeli air attack on the Jabsa line.

Musa points out a fundamental problem with this hypothesis: Israel has usually carried out overt or attributable airstrikes against Syrian military targets. A covert attack on civilian gas infrastructure while security arrangements are under review is a different model.