Iran and the deterrence equation; From threatening enemy vessels to strengthening internal security
The main message of the recent positions of the commanders of the Iranian armed forces is to emphasize the readiness to defend the country and confront any aggression.
Ambassador of Arjan - Politics Group - Hadi Rezaei: Donald Trump's repeated threats against Iran, along with the statements of the commanders of the Islamic Republic of Iran's armed forces about the country's defense readiness, have once again brought the issue of deterrence and US military calculations in the region into focus. In a situation where the American president is talking about the imminent end of the war and the weakening of Iran's military power, the country's military authorities emphasize on the continuation of defense capacities, readiness to face any aggression and maintaining internal security; Positions that show that Tehran still relies on the combination of military preparedness, relying on local power and internal cohesion as the main components of the country's defense.
Washington's rhetoric and the reality of military calculations
Donald Trump claimed for the umpteenth time in his statements that the war with Iran will end soon and in any possible way. He also claimed that America has prevented Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and that the country's military power, including its navy, air force and defense systems, has been destroyed.
These claims are made while it is not possible to evaluate the consequences of any military confrontation by simply relying on the political statements or media narrative of one side. The real strength of the armed forces, the level of operational readiness, the capacity to rebuild equipment, the capabilities of missiles and drones, and the economic and security costs of war, all play a role in the formation of the calculations of the parties involved.
From this point of view, Trump's words should be examined in the context of the US government's efforts to manage the political and economic consequences of confrontation with Iran. Continuity of threats does not mean achieving military goals by itself; Just like the claim of damage to Iran's defense capability, without providing independent and evaluable evidence, it cannot be the basis of a definitive conclusion.
On the other hand, the recent positions of the commanders of the Iranian armed forces are based on the message that any military action against the country will be met with a response and Tehran does not intend to abandon its defense capabilities against foreign threats.
The army's clear warning: in case of aggression, we will respond
Admiral Habibullah Siyari, Chief of Staff and Deputy Coordinator of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, in a statement referring to the attacks on the enemy vessels, emphasized that the armed forces will respond again if hostile actions against Iran are repeated.
Emphasizing that the country has defense capabilities and capabilities, he stated that the armed forces are not immune to threats and will take action to confront the enemy whenever necessary.
Sayari also pointed to the pressures and hostile actions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and emphasized the nation's stand in defense of independence, territorial integrity, revolution and security of the country.
The importance of this position should be sought in the framework of the logic of deterrence. Deterrence becomes meaningful when the other party considers the costs of military action in their calculations. Declaring readiness to respond to an attack, if accompanied by operational capability and real readiness, can affect the military calculations of the other party and limit the range of options available to him.
In this context, warning about enemy vessels is not just a verbal stance; Rather, it expresses the army's emphasis on the readiness to defend the country's interests and security in the maritime environment. Of course, evaluating the effectiveness of this deterrence depends on field evidence, operational capabilities, and how the other parties react.
internal security; Border defense support
Along with the military components, internal security also has a decisive position in the country's defense capability. Major General Ali Abdallahi, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces and Commander of the Central Headquarters of Khatam Al-Anbiya (PBUH), on the sidelines of the meeting with Sardar Ahmadreza Radan, the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Republic of Iran, pointed out the attacks against parts of Faraja and the martyrdom of a number of the forces of this complex, and emphasized the persistence and continuation of the police activity.
Sardar Abdullahi also announced that security indicators have improved compared to the past; According to him, this shows the performance of the police forces in carrying out the assigned missions.
These statements are important in two ways. First, it is necessary to continue the activity of law enforcement agencies and maintain public order in the conditions of external threats, to prevent disruptions in people's daily lives and the continuity of public services. Second, internal stability can strengthen the country's capacity to manage crisis and focus on border defense.
The experience of regional confrontations shows that national security is not only limited to weapons. The efficiency of the responsible institutions, the protection of critical infrastructures, maintaining public peace and people's trust in crisis management mechanisms also play a role in the country's resilience.
From this point of view, the emphasis of the military authorities on the performance of Faraja and the state of internal security is part of a wider picture of the country's readiness to face threats; An image in which military defense and maintaining public order are two related components.
Major General Vahidi: No extra-regional power has the right to intervene in the Strait of Hormuz
Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, published this image on his user account on one of the social networks and wrote: "No extra-regional power has the right to threaten, dominate or intervene in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf."
Major General Safavi: Managing the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic task of the Iranian Armed Forces
Major General Seyed Yahya Safavi, Assistant and Senior Advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of the Supreme Forces, explained the approach of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the scientific-specialist meeting "Effective Geographical Requirements in the Defense Strategy of the Strait of Hormuz" and stated: The Strait of Hormoz is an inseparable part of our territorial waters; Our sovereignty and management over this region is not a political claim, but an indisputable legal and geographical right.
Major General Safavi added: Iran does not seek to create tension; But he is also powerful in exercising his right to sovereignty. When this waterway becomes a platform for the passage of military equipment that directly targets Iran's national security, managing and limiting traffic is not only the right, but also the strategic duty of our armed forces.
Strait of Hormuz; The universal artery that has no alternative
He rejected the hypothesis of the decline of the importance of the Strait of Hormuz due to the construction of pipelines or alternative routes and stated: The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic bottleneck in the global energy network and despite all efforts to create parallel routes, the world's dependence on this passage is a structural dependence.
The Supreme Advisor to the Commander in Chief continued: The importance of this strait in today's volatile world market is even more than in the past. Because more than 20% of the world's oil and energy flow still revolves around this bottleneck.
Distinguishing between "closing the strait" and "strait management", Major General Safavi noted: Our main strategy is the intelligent management of the Strait of Hormuz in the face of the American naval blockade against our beloved country and people.
The head of Martyr Hajj Qassem Soleimani Research Institute of Sacred Defense Sciences and Education pointed out: The management of this strait is the transformation of this bottleneck to remove maritime sanctions and a path to achieve sustainable peace and security in the region with the participation of the countries of the region.
Emphasizing that the Strait of Hormuz is an integral part of Iran's territorial waters, he said: "Our main strategy is the intelligent management of the Strait of Hormuz in the face of the American naval blockade against our country and our beloved people."
The scientific-specialist meeting "Effective geographical requirements in the defense strategy of the Strait of Hormuz" was held by the strategic geography research group of the Holy Defense Research Institute of the Research Institute and was attended by a group of defense, legal and geopolitical elites.
Shikarchi: We will not allow the regional order of the enemy to be renewed in West Asia
General Abulfazl Shekarchi, the chief spokesman of the armed forces, emphasized in a message: We will not allow the regional order of the enemy to be renewed in West Asia. The countries of the region must get out from under the powerless security umbrella of the United States.
He emphasized: America has resorted to fuel smuggling in order to get rid of the self-made swamp in West Asia, which it is falling into more and more every day, but the basic question is: can sea piracy, theft and fuel smuggling prevent the definitive defeat of America? Never!
Sardar Shekarchi pointed out: The propaganda war and successive lies of the American authorities about the control of the Strait of Hormuz will not change the realities on the ground. Neither psychological operations nor media claims will be able to save Washington from the consequences of its failed strategies.
He continued: Defeat cannot be hidden with propaganda and psychological warfare, and the realities of the field cannot be changed with noise. The recent insults of the delusional and foolish American officials regarding Iran's civilization, history and nation are not only a reflection of their desperation, but also only add to the determination of the heroic people of Iran.
The chief spokesman of the armed forces said: We have repeatedly shown our strength and will to the American and Zionist enemies and their allies. The armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, today, with preparations and abilities beyond the past, will resolutely defend the national interests, the security of the country and the whole of Islamic Iran and will impose defeat on the enemies with a powerful attack. The countries of the region must get out from under the powerless security umbrella of the United States. Washington is unable to even ensure its own security in the region, let alone ensure the security of others. Continuing to rely on America's alleged security umbrella will be nothing but accepting the heavy costs of a wrong calculation and decision.
He added: The countries of the region have experienced the ineffectiveness of the alleged American security umbrella in the field of action. Now is the time for them to learn from this experience and not throw themselves into the well of death with the rotten rope of Trump and Netanyahu. We will not allow the renewal of the regional order desired by America and the Zionist regime in West Asia.
missile and drone power; The main components of deterrence
Ismail Kothari, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Islamic Council, has also emphasized the necessity of maintaining readiness against possible threats in a conversation, referring to the role of Iran's missile and drone capabilities in defense equations.
He stated that the experience of various operations has demonstrated the country's missile capabilities, and stated that observing these capabilities in the field can affect the calculations of the other party. Kothari has also emphasized the necessity of avoiding reckless trust in the other party and maintaining preparation for different situations.