Will the Iran War Benefit Solar and Wind Energy?

Disruption of oil and gas transport through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed governments around the world to rethink their energy policies. Growing concerns over the security of fossil fuel supplies have increased attention to solar energy, wind energy, and battery storage.

According to Ambassador Arjan, geopolitical crises in the Middle East have shown once again that countries' strong dependence on oil and gas can make energy security and the global economy vulnerable to sudden disruptions. Following the conflicts related to Iran and the restriction of fuel transfer through the Strait of Hormuz, various governments are looking for ways to reduce their dependence on fossil fuel imports and diversify their energy sources.

In such a situation, solar and wind energy, electric vehicles and battery storage systems have received more attention than before. These technologies can reduce dependence on oil and gas transportation routes and allow countries to supply more of their energy needs domestically.

However, the increased focus on clean energy does not mean the end of the world's dependence on fossil fuels. Some countries still rely on oil and gas and have even increased coal consumption in response to the energy crisis. Therefore, the long-term impact of war on the energy transition will depend on political decisions, investment and the pace of clean infrastructure development.

How does the Strait of Hormuz change the energy equations of the world?

Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important strategic energy crossings in the world. According to common estimates, under normal conditions, about one-fifth of the world's oil trade and a significant part of the liquid natural gas trade pass through this waterway. For this reason, any disruption in the transfer of energy from this route can affect global markets.

Restrictions on the passage of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz make countries that depend on the import of these resources face the challenge of providing fuel and increasing costs. Governments in such situations may look for alternative suppliers, strengthen their energy reserves, or turn to other technologies to reduce fossil fuel consumption.

Among them, renewable energies have an important advantage: the production of solar and wind power does not depend on the continuous transfer of oil and gas from sea routes. Of course, the development of these resources also requires equipment, raw materials, power grid and storage systems, but increasing the domestic production capacity of clean energy can reduce part of the countries' vulnerability to international crises.

Can Iran's war reduce the world's carbon emissions?

According to an analysis by the research organization Carbon Brief, which is mentioned in the text, the consequences of the Iran war may reduce the emissions caused by fossil fuels in 2026 by about 0.5%.

This estimate shows that disruption in the supply of fossil fuels can reduce their consumption in some sectors and increase the use of alternative sources. However, possible reductions in emissions do not necessarily mean sustainable progress in tackling climate change; Because part of this reduction may be due to supply restrictions, economic activity decline, or energy consumption reduction.

In contrast, if countries turn to the sustainable development of solar, wind, battery storage and energy efficiency to deal with the crisis, the effects of this change could be more lasting in the long term.

In this context, the International Energy Agency had previously predicted that global oil demand would peak in 2029. The mentioned report suggests the possibility of this milestone moving forward to 2026; However, this issue should be considered a scenario dependent on market developments, not a definite and confirmed result.

Why have solar and wind energy become more important?

One of the most important consequences of the energy crisis is the increasing attention of governments to sources that enable domestic production and reduce dependence on fuel imports. Solar and wind energy are important in the sense that after installing the equipment, they don't need continuous purchase of oil and gas to generate electricity.

According to the data presented in the report, global investment in renewable energy has grown significantly over the past decade and has reached about twice the investment in fossil fuels. Also, most of the new electricity production capacity in the world is provided by low carbon sources.

Significant changes are also seen in the transportation sector. According to the statistics quoted in the report, about a quarter of the cars sold in the world during 2025 will be electric. The expansion of electric vehicles can reduce transportation dependence on gasoline and diesel; However, its effect on greenhouse gas emissions depends on the source of electricity production and the entire life cycle of the vehicle.

Despite these advances, clean energy development alone is not enough to ensure energy security. Power grids must be strengthened, storage capacity must be increased, and the necessary infrastructure must be provided for a sustainable supply of energy when the sun is low or the wind is blowing.

Governments' reaction; More than 30 countries seek to reduce dependence on fossil fuels

According to information from a policy tracker affiliated with the International Energy Agency cited in the report, more than 30 governments have adopted policies to reduce dependence on fossil fuels or improve energy efficiency in response to developments in the Middle East.

These actions show that energy security and climate policy are more closely linked than before. In addition to trying to secure fuel supply, governments are looking for solutions that are less vulnerable to geopolitical crises.

However, countries' policies are not the same. Some governments are accelerating the development of renewable energy, while others are turning to fossil fuels, including coal, to offset supply shortages or contain costs.

This dichotomy shows that the energy crisis does not automatically lead to a green transition. The direction of countries' movement depends on factors such as the cost of technologies, access to resources, existing infrastructure and support policies.

Contradiction of Trump's policies; Pressure on clean energy in the US, more incentive in the world

US President Donald Trump has been a supporter of fossil fuel development, and some of his administration's policies have been aimed at reducing support for renewable energy and adjusting environmental regulations. Critics believe that this approach can lead to an increase in domestic emissions of greenhouse gases.

However, the energy trade disruption crisis may have a different outcome outside the US. Seeing the vulnerability caused by the dependence on oil and gas imports, some governments have found more incentive to invest in clean energy.

Speaking during Climate Week in New York, California Gov. Gavin Newsom described Trump as a "gift" to the environmental movement in terms of the unintended consequences of his policies. His argument was that the energy crisis has revealed countries' dependence on fossil fuel suppliers and their vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions.

Of course, this statement does not mean that the US government's policies have directly reduced global emissions. To assess the real effect of war and energy policies, the trend of fuel consumption, investment in clean resources and changes in greenhouse gas emissions in different countries should be examined separately.

The energy crisis is not limited to oil and electricity

The world's dependence on fossil fuels goes beyond electricity generation and fueling cars. Oil and gas play a role in the production of chemical fertilizers, plastics, industrial raw materials and a wide range of everyday products. As a result, disruption in the supply of these resources can affect supply chains in different sectors of the economy.

For example, the production of many nitrogen fertilizers depends on natural gas. An increase in the price or a shortage of gas can increase the cost of fertilizer production and ultimately affect the cost of agriculture and food prices.

Delfin Levy Alvarez, Director of the Global Petrochemical Campaign at the Center for International Environmental Law, emphasized in the statements quoted in the report that the dependence on fossil fuels is not limited to the energy sector and many materials used in daily life are also dependent on these resources.

This issue shows that the energy transition is not limited to the installation of solar panels and wind turbines. Developing alternative materials, increasing recycling, improving productivity, and reducing industries' dependence on fossil raw materials are also important for creating a low-carbon economy.

Is Iran's crisis enough to achieve climate goals?

Despite the increasing attention to clean energy, experts believe that the current measures are not enough to achieve the world's climate goals. The United Nations has previously warned that countries are not on track to fully achieve the goals of the Paris climate agreement in 2015.

Pauline Heinrich, war studies lecturer at King's College London, told Ambassador Arjan that governments are still vacillating between accepting the importance of clean energy and supporting the expansion of fossil fuels.

On the other hand, Rob Jackson, a climatologist at Stanford University, has emphasized the need for long-term climate action. That is, even if the current crisis increases investment in clean energy, solving the problem of climate change will require continuous policies over the coming years and decades.

Climate TRACE database experts also emphasize the importance of government policies and incentives. Developing electric vehicle infrastructure, increasing energy efficiency, supporting clean electricity production, and creating appropriate economic mechanisms can help make changes last.

The Iran war could change the world's energy trajectory, but not alone

The developments related to the Iran war and the restrictions on the transfer of energy through the Strait of Hormuz have revealed the vulnerability of dependence on oil and gas once again. These developments may reduce emissions from fossil fuels by about 0.5 percent in 2026, according to Carbon Brief's analysis. Also, according to the information presented in the report, more than 30 governments have adopted policies to reduce dependence on fossil fuels or improve energy efficiency.

However, the potential reduction in emissions in one year alone is not indicative of the long-term success of climate policies. If countries turn to coal and other carbon-intensive sources to compensate for energy shortages, some of the potential benefits will be lost. In contrast, continued investment in solar and wind power, battery storage, power grids, and energy efficiency can reduce dependence on imported fuels.