Trump's Diesel Deal Opens New Rift With Europe Over Ukraine

Trump Calls for Zelensky to Be Replaced as Europe Earmarks Summit for Ukraine Financing

Russia has claimed that it can supply the world market with even more diesel than the amount agreed with US President Donald Trump.

"By the end of the year, we can reach 3.5 million tons per month of supply to world markets, just like before the crisis," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told the Vesti news program on Monday.

List of 4 Items List 1 of 4 Ukraine Warns Trump-Putin Diesel Deal Funding Russia's War

List 2 of 4 "Energy Ceasefire": What's Behind Trump's Love-Hate Relationship With Russian Oil?

List 3 of 4 From a "dangerous competitor" to an unknown: who can replace Zelensky?

List 4 of 4 Trump calls for energy ceasefire as Ukraine reports new Russian attacks

End of list President Vladimir Putin and Trump on Friday discussed a deal that is expected to bring 300,000 tons of diesel to global markets in October, half a million tons in November and one million tons in December.

The price of diesel for Americans and indeed the world will drop with record numbers and fast! Trump posted.

But experts are skeptical, and the move has created a rift between the United States and Europe over the Ukraine war.

Kostis Stamboulis, executive director of the Energy Institute for Southeast Europe (IENE), described the US move as "purely political" and aimed at impeaching Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

He said that Trump wants to show that America, unlike Europe, "has no problem with Russia."

"Russia produces 5.8 million tons of diesel per month. He added: "Probably two million are available for export."

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Sunday that Europe has responded to the diesel deal by supporting Ukraine, whose war budget will be "front and center" at this week's European Council meeting.

Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Waltonen called on Europeans on Monday to ban all tourist visas for Russians.

Stamboulis believes that Trump is using the weakness of Europe to change his position towards Ukraine.

Referring to the European Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Plan, he said: In the last 15 years, about 30 European refineries have been closed for environmental reasons, because they have to pay for the emission of greenhouse gases, so now Europe is not self-sufficient in terms of production.

Trump is showing the Europeans that he "doesn't want to make a deal with Europe and go to hell with them ... it will further open the gap between the United States and the European Union," Stamboulis said.

Ukraine says it has destroyed nearly half of Russia's refining capacity, forcing Moscow to freeze exports of lucrative oil products that help finance the country's war.

It has also bombed Russian tankers carrying crude oil to the world markets.

Zelensky said the strategy had worked and was undermined by Trump's deal to suspend sanctions on Russian oil products until April 2027.

Zelensky said on Saturday: "Gifts to Putin will not lead to peace." Any weakening of sanctions against Russia without a clear and lasting de-escalation agreement with Russia is a clear sign of weakness.

Although Trump announced an energy cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday that ended Ukraine's attacks on refineries, Russian strikes knocked out Kiev's energy grid and killed 12 people in Dnipropetrovsk.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said of Zelensky: "I don't think he's earned a reprieve."

Europe is backing Ukraine's economic strategy against Russia's war machine, but Trump has blamed it for raising gas prices at the pump for Americans as he heads into midterm congressional elections in early November.

"[Zelensky] wants to make it difficult for our farmers, our ranchers with diesel fuel, because Russia supplies so much of the diesel fuel around the world," Trump told reporters at the White House after Zelensky's reaction.

"I think it's time for Ukraine to elect a new president," he said.

Trump has pursued a seemingly contradictory policy toward Russia.

When he took office in January 2025, he cut off US military aid to Ukraine, but agreed to sell weapons to Europe to help Ukraine.

He had a public spat with Zelensky in the Oval Office in February 2025, saying "you don't have a card", but at this year's NATO summit he said Zelensky had "done an amazing job" and been "very effective".

Last month, Trump signed the Lindsey Graham Act, which allows him to punish countries that buy Russian oil. Eleven days later, he changed his policy.

"Trump is trying to balance it with a completely different and opposite tool," said Avon Victoria Vedovichenko, a European security expert at the University of Cambridge's Center for Geopolitics.

"That way he sees how he controls the narrative, as well as any kind of negotiation," he told Al Jazeera. Therefore, this pendulum will continue."

According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), average U.S. gasoline and diesel prices rose briefly but ultimately did not change much because of the war in Ukraine, but prices increased significantly because of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

US diesel was $4.10 per gallon on February 24, 2022, the day Russia invaded Ukraine. On the eve of Trump's war in the Persian Gulf, February 28, 2026, it fell to $3.81.

Since then, it has risen 78% and reached $6.19 in early October.

It's a similar story for U.S. regular unleaded gasoline, which was $3.48 a gallon before the Russian attack. It was $2.79 a gallon before Trump's Gulf War, but has since halved to $4.15 a gallon.

The US government has little room to cut taxes, which are only 11 or 12 percent of the retail price, so it can only manipulate prices through supply.

"If the market knows there will be a lot more diesel in the coming weeks, it will factor that into today's prices and discount it now," Stamboulis told Al Jazeera.

But in lowering the price of oil, more important than the agreement between Trump and Putin will be the announcement by the G7 on October 2nd to release it. He said: 100 million barrels of oil are strategic reserves.

The remaining 80 million barrels of the previous supply of 400 million tons will also be released in March.