American media: The economic blockade of Iran was not the work of 2 weeks; It may take years

The Trump administration has intensified the campaign of pressure and blockade by promising to deliver a quick blow to Iran's economy; But meeting Washington's deadlines has been more difficult than expected and Tehran has still maintained part of its oil exports.

Ambassador Arjan - Political Group: Washington has resorted to economic war to force Tehran to retreat; A campaign that according to analysts and former American officials, contrary to the initial promises of the Trump administration, may require months or even years to change Iran's behavior.

While Donald Trump's administration has turned to economic pressure instead of military force to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has promised that Iran's economy will suffer quickly. He announced last month that by the end of September, all Iranian airlines around the world will be grounded. He also claimed that Iran will not have oil for sale until the end of this week.

Iran's economy is under pressure, but the fulfillment of these promises and deadlines announced by the Trump administration has been more difficult than what Washington expected. America is facing a government in Tehran that is more motivated to withstand pressure than to retreat.

The US blockade of Iran's ports has reduced the country's oil exports to a minimum and has destroyed billions of dollars of Tehran's monthly income. However, Iran continues to sell the oil it exported during the June ceasefire period. In addition, according to the data of the global information company Kepler, Iran exports about 250,000 barrels of oil daily from the country through land routes.

Donald Trump has said that the campaign of economic pressure, which is now in its second month, is aimed at forcing Iran to return to the negotiating table after the US mid-term elections in November. However, the negotiations are still stalled and the Iranian authorities are not willing to back down from their demands.

At the same time, Tehran has intensified military attacks against the traffic of ships in the Strait of Hormuz and has targeted more than 9 vessels in just one week. These attacks have taken place after the expansion of American operations in the region; The operation that facilitated the passage of oil tankers, but could not move the global energy price.

Despite this, according to one of the senior officials of the US government, the Trump administration believes that the passage of time is in favor of Washington. This official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, refused to comment on Basant's promises and the details of the expected timing to inflict economic damage on Iran.

"We have really seen a change in the equation of time," he said. According to this official, in previous rounds of economic pressure, Iran could overcome the crisis by using its oil revenues, but the US blockade has limited this possibility of maneuver and increased the effectiveness of sanctions.

On September 8, the Trump administration announced a broad set of sanctions against Iran's aviation industry and threatened foreign companies providing services to Iranian airlines with secondary sanctions. Besnet told CNBC at the same time: "Until September 23, all Iranian airlines around the world will be shut down." He added that the Trump administration has "identified the facilitators of these activities around the world."

"We know who they are, they know who they are, and we're going to put an end to this," he said.

But in October, international flights to and from Iran continue; including flights to China, Iraq and Turkey.

Flight monitoring companies have reported that in the days after the announcement of US sanctions, the number of international flights entering and leaving Iran has decreased by about 50%. However, recent data from Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran shows that flights from Pakistan's Islamabad, Istanbul, Moscow and Shanghai are still being made to this airport.

Before announcing this campaign, American officials met with representatives of dozens of countries to gain their support. Officials of the Ministry of Treasury also traveled to the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and Oman to discuss the upcoming measures in the field of aviation and banking.

According to the official of the US government, during the consultation with its allies, Washington has also responded to the concerns about the time required for the campaign of economic pressure to be effective. This official said he told the American allies: "Look, we want to see this issue resolved as soon as possible." The sooner they can cut off all these vital arteries so that Iran knows it has nowhere else to go, the sooner we will reach that solution."

However, analysts and former officials say sanctions campaigns like the Trump administration's "economic exclusion" against Iran may take months to years to force the other side to change its behavior.

Matthew Levitt, a former US Treasury official and senior research fellow at the Washington Institute, said: "These economic campaigns are only as effective as you are willing to maintain and implement them; And this requires a long-term commitment."

When announcing the "Economic Exclusion" operation, Besnet demanded the closure of all branches of Melli Bank of Iran; A state-owned bank that, according to Washington, is involved in financial activities related to Iran. He said: "Any entity that launders money on behalf of Iran will be removed from the US dollar system. "Time is running out."

Last month, the US Treasury Department sanctioned the manager of the National Bank branch in the UAE. A few days later, the United Arab Emirates banned all branches of this bank in its territory from conducting incoming and outgoing transactions related to Iran.

The U.S. Treasury Department warned on Monday that foreign financial institutions may now be subject to secondary sanctions without prior notice, in a sign of possible escalation of measures against financial institutions.

Other targeted banks include a branch of an Egyptian bank in the UAE and VTB Bank, Russia's second largest financial institution.

Kari Steinbower, a former U.S. Treasury official who advises companies on sanctions compliance at Stepto Law Firm in Washington, said interest in sanctions compliance has increased "all over the world."

He said: "Part of this comes down to the messages that are being sent from the White House; That the pressure on Iran is increasing and will continue to increase. "I don't see this government backing down or losing interest."

America resumed the blockade of Iran in July (July 24), after the collapse of the temporary agreement to end the war. Since then, the operation has reduced Iran's oil exports to record lows and cut billions of dollars in vital government revenue.

However, Iran continues to sell the oil it previously exported. According to estimates compiled by oil analysts, Iran rapidly removed more than 60 million barrels of oil from its ports between mid-June (June) and mid-July (July), i.e. during the period of the interim peace agreement, and then continued to gradually sell part of these reserves.

It is not yet clear how much unsold oil remains. However, some oil analysts estimated last month that Iran has about 30 million barrels of oil remaining and the country sells about 500,000 barrels of it per day. Ambassador Arjan also reported on Thursday that about 20 million barrels of Iranian oil are still in vessels outside the blockade.

The economic pressure imposed after an all-out military campaign has left Iran in deeper isolation than it has experienced in decades.

Richard Nephew, the former US negotiator in the Iran case in the Joe Biden administration, said that numerous rounds of conflict with Israel and the US had previously limited Iran's communications with the outside world.

He said: "One of the reasons why Iran can act more aggressively in this field is that it no longer has such connections as in the past. "These connections were worn out before."

Nefiu added that the institutions that have been targeted so far with the aim of isolating Tehran have "real importance"; But in response to the question whether these actions are considered the final blow to Iran's economy, he said: "Probably not."