Autumn in Iran under the shadow of El Nino

The strengthening of El Nino in 2026 will once again focus on Iran's rainfall situation, which can increase the risk of heavy rains and floods as well as the pressure on water resources by changing the pattern of temperature and precipitation.

According to ambassador Arjan; The strengthening of the El Nino climate phenomenon in 2026 has once again drawn attention to its possible consequences for Iran.

This phenomenon is formed by an abnormal increase in water surface temperature in parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean and can change the atmospheric circulation, the path of precipitation systems and the distribution of temperature and precipitation in different parts of the world.

October forecasts indicate the possibility of strong to very strong El Niño continuing in the coming months, although the final intensity and time of subsidence of this phenomenon is still uncertain.

For Iran, the main issue is not simply increasing or decreasing rainfall; Rather, the timing and distribution of rainfall is more important. If a large volume of precipitation occurs in a basin in a few hours or days, the runoff will increase and the risk of river flooding, flooding, soil erosion, and landslides will increase.

On the other hand, the reduction of effective precipitation or the prolongation of dry periods can increase the pressure on surface and underground water resources.

Temperature changes can also affect agriculture and energy sectors. Extreme heat during the sensitive stages of crop growth or heavy rainfall during harvesting increases the possibility of yield reduction, and the continuation of heat waves can also increase electricity consumption and pressure on the energy network.

The occurrence of floods in Tehran should not be directly attributed to El Nino. Ahad Tazifi, the head of the National Center for Climate and Drought Crisis Management, emphasized that the flooding of Tehran's rivers does not mean a definite flood and that topography, the condition of rivers and human interventions play a role in the amount of damage. Examples such as the floods of Imamzadeh Dawood and Firuzkoh in the summer of 1401 also occurred in La Nina conditions.

It should be noted that La Niña is associated with the unusual cooling of the surface waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean and can change the patterns of precipitation, temperature and the path of atmospheric systems in the world.

Therefore, El Nino cannot be equated to "rainy autumn" or "flood in Iran" alone; What is important is the continuous monitoring of weather patterns and the preparation of infrastructure for different rainfall and drought scenarios.