How Trump's Russia Deal Will Affect the United States and Ukraine

Trump's deal with Russia has alarmed Ukraine and its allies. What does he hope to gain at home, and what does the deal mean for Kyiv and Moscow?

10/14/2026 October 14, 2026 US President Trump's diesel deal with Russia has worried Ukraine and its allies. What does he hope to achieve at home and what does this deal mean for Kyiv and Moscow?

Many Ukrainians and Europeans saw the news from Washington last weekend as a stab in the back by a US ally. First, US President Donald Trump announced a deal to buy Russian diesel, which includes a temporary easing of US sanctions against Moscow.

And later Trump announced an "energy truce" between Ukraine and Russia. Kiev said the idea had not been discussed with Ukraine, but he was ready to stop attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure if Moscow did the same.

Trump is not interested in supporting Ukraine

Carlo Massala, a security expert from the Bundeswehr University of Munich, said: "The developments show that Trump is not at all interested in supporting Ukraine, but American domestic policy and relations with Russia are much more important to him than supporting Ukraine."

He added: The president intends to influence the outcome of the American mid-term elections on November 3 through an agreement with Russia.

All regularly scheduled seats in the House of Representatives and a portion of the Senate will be contested in midterm elections. Polls indicate that Trump's Republican Party will lose its majority in the House. Losing the Republican majority in the Senate is also possible. Polls show that American voters are unhappy with high fuel prices, and the US president apparently hopes to influence prices through diesel shipments from Russia.

Can Trump's agreement with diesel reduce the price of American fuel?

To view this video, please enable JavaScript and upgrade to a web browser that supports HTML5 video.

Observers, however, view Trump's hopes that Russian diesel shipments could affect prices in the United States as illusory.

"The volume is so low that it will have absolutely no effect on prices," Thomas Jager of the University of Cologne told German public broadcaster ARD.

This expert on political issues added: The shipments planned before the mid-term elections cannot cover the demand for American diesel even for one day.

He said: "The same applies to any shipment that may arrive later, if it materializes, it will not affect the prices either."

Trump's goal, Jagger said, is simply "the story" — to show voters that he's trying to solve a problem they care about.

There is no clear military advantage for Russia

The main criticism of Kiev and EU countries is that Russia will use the revenue from the sale of diesel to finance its war against Ukraine.

Carlo Massala, however, does not foresee the agreement with the United States having "any concrete positive military effects" for Russia.

He notes that Washington had already suspended sanctions on Russian oil exports in March of this year, shortly after the US and Israel attacked Iran.

This expert said: Despite the money it has and has received, Russia has no military strategy to advance further in Donbass. The issue is more related to the political influence and symbolism of the Americans, who are doing business with the Russians at the expense of Ukraine.

Another cause for concern in Kyiv could be US threats to suspend information sharing with Ukraine and block the PURL (Priority of Ukrainian Requirements List) program unless Ukraine stops its attacks on Russian oil refineries. Under the PURL program, European countries supply US weapons to Ukraine.

Trump, Russia and Ukraine: Has America changed sides again?

Masala said a possible US decision to stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine on attacks on Russian soil would have "dramatic" consequences for Kyiv, but European intelligence, particularly from France, could help mitigate the effects.

While French intelligence is "not as comprehensive as American intelligence," the Ukrainian military is currently using it to launch attacks in Russia with French weapons systems.

Regarding the weapons that European countries are supplying to Ukraine under the PURL program from the United States, Masala noted that the most important component of the program - interceptor missiles for air defense - has been difficult to get to Ukraine since the start of the war with Iran.

Support for Ukraine on both American sides

Before the US mid-term elections, experts note that Ukraine enjoys wide support not only among Democrats, but also among Republicans. One example is this summer's bipartisan passage of tougher US sanctions against Russia, known as the Lindsey Graham Act, after its Republican congressional sponsor, who has since died.

The law, signed by Trump in September, gives the president a wide range of tools. He could impose sanctions on Russian officials, oligarchs, financial institutions and the Russian shadow fleet used to circumvent oil export restrictions. He can also impose punitive tariffs on buyers of Russian energy products.

"Trump may resist, but political forces, especially after the US midterm elections, may push the administration to seek to end the war using the means at hand," Daniel Fried, a former US diplomat, told Deutsche Welle.

He added that the "Lindsey Graham Act" and the 2022 Act banning Russian oil imports from the United States "are not absolutes, but strong barriers to stupid ideas like a unilateral diesel deal with Russia without recourse."

Several Democratic and Republican senators cited the law in a joint statement, calling the gas deal with Russia illegal and calling on the US administration to "immediately" reverse its decision.