Saudi Arabia Caught in a Ruinous Trap; Middle East on the Verge of a Power Shift

From Kroek's perspective, Europe's economic woes also play a role in shaping this political climate. He points to Germany's economic situation, the electoral defeats of the ruling party, and the continuation of programs to strengthen the country's military.

According to Ambassador Arjan, you are reading Alistair Crook's account of the Arab to Saudi crisis, America's withdrawal and the future of the regional order in the Middle East.

Part 1: Europe on the path of escalating tensions with Russia

Alistair Crook, a former British diplomat, begins this conversation by discussing the political climate in Europe and increasing warnings about the possibility of war with Russia. From his point of view, what is going on in Europe is beyond Russophobia; European governments are creating an atmosphere that prepares society for the possibility of a military confrontation.

Crook points to the statements of the British, French and German authorities and says that in the UK there have even been recommendations about storing water and food for crisis situations. Some authorities and experts also warn in the media about the possibility of war and ask people to prepare themselves for its consequences.

However, he believes that European public opinion has not yet fully come to terms with this war atmosphere; However, media and political pressure to raise concerns about the war has increased.

Attacks on Russia and the risk of miscalculation

Kroc further points to Donald Trump's decision to sign a new set of sanctions against Russia and impose sanctions on a major Russian bank. According to him, at the same time, large-scale attacks were also carried out against Moscow, most of which, according to his account, were neutralized by Russian air defense.

According to Crook, the timing of these attacks was particularly important; Because they happened on the last day of the Russian Duma elections. He considers this action as an attempt to disrupt the election process; An attempt that, according to him, did not come to fruition.

At the same time, attacks on Russian refineries have also continued. Crook says that even Washington has warned about the consequences of these attacks, as damage to Russia's refining capacity amid a global diesel shortage could exacerbate the fuel crisis.

Why is Europe moving towards war?

Crook questions why, despite the economic and military risks, the pressure to escalate the conflict continues.

Part of Europe's political calculus, he believes, is based on the assumption that Vladimir Putin can be pressured enough to finally react against a NATO member. In such a situation, the possibility of activating the NATO collective defense mechanism is raised.

He reminds that Article 5 of the NATO treaty does not necessarily mean the automatic entry of all members into war, and each country decides on its actions according to the mechanisms of the treaty.

From Crook's point of view, the economic problems of Europe also play a role in the formation of this political environment. He mentions the economic situation of Germany, the electoral defeats of the ruling party and the continuation of the plans to strengthen the country's army.

According to him, Europe is not sufficiently prepared for the possible consequences of the energy crisis, including diesel and gasoline shortages and even fuel rationing.

Kroc believes that preventing the gradual adjustment of prices can cause shortages to suddenly become a severe crisis instead of gradually appearing. He points to the long queues of trucks to get fuel in some regions of France and warns of the worsening of this situation.

fear A tool for preparing public opinion

To explain the role of fear in managing public opinion, Kroc points to the era of the Covid pandemic. In his opinion, just as in that period some images and narratives helped to intensify public concern, now the fear of war can become a tool to prepare the society.

He warns that continued attacks on Russian refineries and widespread drone strikes, especially at politically sensitive times, may prompt Moscow to react. In such a situation, a miscalculation can lead to the spread of conflict.

The second part: Saudi Arabia, the Houthis and the withdrawal of the United States

In the continuation of the conversation with Richard Napolitano, the host of the program, the focus is shifted from Europe to the Middle East and the situation of Saudi Arabia against the Yemeni Houthis.

Napolitano points to reports that Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military to prepare to attack Houthi bases, but that decision was later reversed.

Crook believes that in order to understand this change of position, one should examine the US military's assessment of the situation in the field. According to him, the US military has come to the conclusion that Saudi Arabia's effort to deal with the Houthis has faced a heavy failure.

According to Crook's narrative, Saudi Arabia had organized a series of tribal forces and armed groups to confront the Houthis; But these forces did not have a unified command, operational coordination and sufficient logistical support.

He says that the forces affiliated to Saudi Arabia are retreating and at the same time, changes are being observed in the position of the Yemeni tribes.

According to Crook, the Houthis have been negotiating with different tribes for a long time, and even some tribes that were on the front against them have now come close to this group.

He considers one of the reasons for this change to be the reduction in Saudi Arabia's financial ability to pay for the forces and groups that were formed to fight the Houthis.

Geography of Yemen; An obstacle to US military operations

Crook believes that the geographical structure of Yemen, especially its mountainous and inaccessible areas, makes military operations against the Houthis difficult.

According to him, the Houthis have settled in areas that make it possible to threaten the Bab al-Mandab Strait. They do not necessarily need expensive ballistic missiles to pose such a threat and can use simpler equipment such as artillery.

He also emphasizes the high mobility of Houthi forces. These forces move quickly and, unlike conventional armies, do not necessarily have large, fixed targets that can be easily targeted.

In Crook's view, the experience of previous US attacks, including attacks on civilian infrastructure, shows that air power alone cannot necessarily stop the Houthis.

He concludes that the direct entry of the United States into the war may have the opposite effect, and if the conflict escalates, the Saudi energy infrastructure will be exposed to attacks more than before.

To explain this danger, Crook points to the Houthis' ability to use missiles, cruise missiles and drones, and claims that their previous attacks on energy facilities and infrastructure in Saudi Arabia have shown that the country is vulnerable to such threats.

America's withdrawal; A blow to Mohammad bin Salman

According to Crook, Trump's decision to refrain from directly entering the war in favor of Saudi Arabia is not only a military decision; Rather, it has an important political consequence for Mohammad bin Salman.

He believes that the Saudi Crown Prince has relied on the support of America for a long time and considered this support as one of the main foundations of his security and political power. Now, according to Crook, it is clear that Washington is not necessarily willing to enter into a costly war to save Saudi Arabia.

To explain the sensitivity of this situation, Kroc points to the arrest of a number of Saudi princes, businessmen and influential people at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in 2017. This action, which was carried out in the framework of the announced fight against corruption, was accompanied by the receipt of huge sums of money from some detainees.

He believes that this event displeased parts of the royal family and power networks in Saudi Arabia, and now, in the context of reduced financial resources, Mohammed bin Salman's position may become more fragile.

Crook further argues that Saudi Arabia's problem is not only military; Moreover, the financial power of this country is also important for maintaining the network of allies and affiliated forces.