Iran and the predictable end of Germany

Both must answer a common question: how to preserve what has worked, without remaining dependent on a world that no longer exists?

Ambassador Arjan; Professor Stefan Piaski (sociologist and specialist in political science) and Zohra Shirazi (senior expert in German studies) - the model that was the engine of Germany's economic power for decades, today faces challenges that have questioned its future.

For many years, in the eyes of many Iranians, Germany was not just a European country, but a clear image of a concept: factories with precise and engineered work, companies that lasted for decades, and an economy that maintained its stability even in global crises. For many, the name of Germany was tied to one word: predictability. A country whose industrial quality, technology, economic order and its role in global markets were considered reliable. But today, Germany itself is facing an important question: Is the model that made this country one of the most successful industrial countries in the world still sufficient for the future? This debate is not limited to Berlin. For a country like Iran, which considered Germany one of the most important industrial and technological partners of Europe for decades, Germany's economic changes have a meaning beyond the country's internal issues. It's not just that German companies are facing new challenges; The problem is that one of the most important patterns of industrial development in the world is redefining itself.

Germany's economic power was based on several main pillars: export-oriented industries, advanced engineering, strong medium-sized and family-owned companies, a skilled workforce, and extensive connections with global markets. This model was successful for decades. German machines, cars and industrial products of this country had customers all over the world. Germany did not only export goods; It also presented an image of quality, trust and economic stability to the world. But the conditions in which this model was formed have changed. Energy is no longer cheap and easily available as in the past. China, which was once one of the biggest markets for German products, has become a serious competitor in many areas. The automobile industry is facing the biggest transformation in its history since its formation and new technologies have changed the rules of competition. In such a situation, Germany's main challenge is not just slowing down economic growth. Companies are concerned about the high costs of energy and labor, bureaucracy, investment conditions, and the country's international competitiveness. Workers are experiencing the same changes from another angle: the concern of losing industrial jobs with decent income, reducing purchasing power, and gradually weakening social security. Especially in the automotive, chemical and supply chain industries, this development is accompanied by a fundamental question: Will industrial value creation be permanently transferred abroad? Politically, a debate has also arisen: is Germany just going through a period of economic weakness or is its former economic model itself under pressure? The new geopolitics no longer works automatically. So the main concern is no longer just when Germany will return to its past growth path; Rather, it is on what economic basis will the country's welfare, employment and welfare state be provided in the future. In the past sixty years, West Germany played a mediating and balancing role between Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union on one side and the West on the other, and presented an image of predictability. In the Middle East and the Persian Gulf region, this country was known as a reliable partner despite all the crises. Experience has shown that mutual recognition and learning can be achieved only through crises and respectful dialogues even in times of disagreement. Germany's role as an independent mediator is seen less today than in the past decades. And in a way, it means the loss of a part of this country's ability to influence and shape changes. Economic, structural and diplomatic factors are now facing new challenges. In German politics and diplomacy, the more balanced approach of the past towards Russia, Iran or China has changed its place. Germany considers itself a part of the Western world and is waiting for an agreement on common positions with its allies more than in the past. Agreements that are not always formed quickly. As a result, the opportunity to react in time and play a more active role in international developments is lost.

Why are these developments important for Iran?

For years, the relations between Iran and Germany were based on a certain idea: Germany was known as one of the most important sources of technology and technical know-how in Europe. Various sectors of Iran's economy, from industries and machine building to technical education and economic cooperation, have been linked with the name of Germany for years. But if Germany changes its economic priorities, Iran must adjust its view of this economic partner with the new realities. And the question that can be asked is: What kind of partner will Germany be in the future? A country that is faced with multipolar competition, technological changes and demographic changes without sufficient preparation; Because the important reforms that were necessary have not been completed due to years of political stagnation. The economy of a country and its international position are closely related to each other. Industrial power, political and economic role also shape the country's prestige in Europe. A country that must spend a large part of its resources on rebuilding its competitiveness, investing in new technologies and adapting to global changes may have different priorities in the future and show less readiness to play an active role in foreign policy. For Iran, this issue is important; Because the relations between Iran and Europe are not only limited to the economy. Europe has always been an important political partner for Iran. Therefore, knowing the changes in Germany does not only mean knowing an economy; Rather, it means understanding the evolution that can affect Germany's political relations with Europe and the world. Germany sees itself as a country that is widely intertwined within the framework of the European Union. This country considers itself surrounded by friends and allies. But in terms of economic policy, France and increasingly Poland are acting more independently and pursuing their own interests. Hungary also has its own path. When Germany announced in terms of defense policy that it intends to increase its military power, former rivals and even enemies in the war, such as Poland and France, showed critical reactions. Friendship within the European Union has always depended to a certain extent on how much Germany was willing to pay the costs and show political restraint. This matter is of great importance in a situation where the world is clearly moving towards multi-polarization, the war in Ukraine continues and the US wants more dominance in the international arena. Because such conditions do not necessarily increase the EU's ability to act effectively at the global level.

Germany's future role in economic relations with Iran

The current political situation in 2026 is influenced by the international crises of the past years. Relations between Iran and Germany are under severe pressure, sanctions have limited the space for economic cooperation, and trade between the two countries has significantly decreased in 2025: German exports to Iran have reached 962 million euros. Despite the political pressures, it is important to look at the common interests that still exist between the two countries. Germany and Iran do not necessarily agree on all political issues in order to cooperate in areas where specific issues require specific solutions. These areas include science and technical education, medicine and health services, water technology and the environment, and as far as international sanctions allow, industrial modernization and the transfer of civilian technologies. Also, the security of trade routes in the Persian Gulf, despite all the political differences, can still be in line with the interests of both economies. Germany still has technical knowledge and industrial experience. Iran also has a large domestic market, a young and educated population, and a vast need for economic modernization. Therefore, it is not possible to simply conclude the future from the past relationship. But perhaps precisely cooperation on limited and practical issues can re-create something that is missing in Iran-Germany relations: predictability. For both countries, this issue can also have a bigger lesson. Germany must adapt its economic model to a multipolar world. Iran should also find ways to reduce its economic isolation and use more of its industrial capacity. Both countries are in completely different political and economic conditions. But both have to answer a common question: how to preserve what has worked, without remaining dependent on a world that no longer exists?