Attack on Iran Before Elections / Netanyahu's New Plan Leaked

Reports point to a possible shift in Netanyahu's military priority from Iran to Yemen, a scenario that could be tied to his effort to strengthen his electoral position. However, bin Salman's opposition to an overt military coalition with Israel presents a serious obstacle to this plan.

The Al-Monitor analytical base wrote in an exclusive report to Qalam Bin Kespit, a senior analyst of security and political issues, that knowledgeable security sources do not deny the occurrence of a new military confrontation with Iran or Yemeni forces before the Knesset elections on November 5. According to these sources, such a movement can significantly increase the chance of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, to win the election campaign and continue to survive in power.

However, a security source has emphasized that the field data of the last two days shows that Netanyahu is now more inclined to carry out air operations in Yemen instead of attacking Iran, which was the main focus of military think tanks until recently.

A prominent political source in Tel Aviv told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity: "Although the position of Netanyahu's camp has strengthened somewhat in the polls, he is still afraid of the risk of defeat and leaving power; Therefore, postponing the elections in the wake of a new military flare-up against Iran, the Yemenis, or any other side, does not worry him and may even encourage him."

The official added that even if the military tension does not lead to the cancellation or delay of the elections, the re-emergence of security priorities will help Netanyahu to remind the public of the days of war against Iran and Hezbollah and take advantage of this playing card.

The September survey by the "Institute for National Security Studies of Israel" (INSS) showed that 68% of Israelis consider the reoccurrence of war with Iran as inevitable, and only 14% rejected the possibility of a return of conflicts.

The confusion of Washington's messages and the satisfaction of Ben Salman

Time is running out fast before Tel Aviv's election deadline, and a final decision must be made soon. Israel's TV channel 12 reported on October 17 (October 8) that the Pentagon ordered the US Central Command (CENTCOM) to finalize its preparations for a possible escalation of the war against Iran. But just a few hours later, US President Donald Trump announced in a message on the "Truth Social" social network that Washington will not attack Iran until the mid-term elections on November 12 and claimed that the negotiations with Tehran are in a fruitful process.

The simultaneity of Trump's message with the intensification of missile and drone attacks by the Yemeni Ansarullah forces deep into Saudi Arabia strengthened Netanyahu's motivation to focus on the Yemeni front. In the recent series of attacks, several Saudi citizens were killed, and Yemeni missiles hit the Riyadh International Airport and flight facilities, causing the cancellation of flights and loss of life.

An Israeli diplomatic source stated: "The Prime Minister believes that if Israel can effectively become the defense and military backbone of Saudi Arabia against the threats of Ansarullah, this approach will melt the ice in relations with Mohammed bin Salman and bring the compromise and normalization of relations back to the negotiation table."

Riyadh's rejection of a joint alliance with Tel Aviv

Despite the hopes of the political establishment in Tel Aviv, the reaction of the Saudis has been quite cautious. Haaretz newspaper reported in a report that Riyadh has rejected Tel Aviv's repeated requests to join the joint military campaign against Yemen.

This opposition occurred in a situation where the Israeli army had flaunted its intelligence and ballistic missile interception capabilities, but the Saudi rulers are worried that any public association with Israel will fuel a wave of anger and disgust among Saudi public opinion; Hence, intelligence assistance is pursued only with the cautious mediation of Washington. A senior Israeli diplomat confirmed the deadlock and said: "The Saudis practically poured cold water on Netanyahu's enthusiasm; Despite the sensitivity of the southern front, they do not have much desire to make this connection public."

Tel Aviv's security concerns about Iran's missile power

In the regional dimension, the case of Tehran's capabilities remains the main concern of Israeli intelligence agencies. General Eyal Zamir, the Chief of the General Staff of the Israeli Army, had previously warned in intensive consultations with his American counterparts in the Pentagon that a renewed attack on Iran could delay the holding of elections. On the other hand, the reports provided by the Wall Street Journal and Ambassador Arjan indicate that Iran has resumed the production of its ballistic missiles and drones in underground workshops and hangars and has completely restored its production lines. A Tel Aviv security source emphasized that Iran's missile and aviation stockpile levels are now very close to pre-war levels, and the Israeli military has been forced to remain on full alert to fend off the dangers of regaining this capability, although direct confrontation has been postponed until after the elections.