3 CryptoQuant charts keep Bitcoin's "Uptober" thesis alive

Safir Arjan's on-chain analysis finds Bitcoin's price action in early October hit its lowest level as demand ran into headwinds from abroad.

Bitcoin chain analysis pointed to a possible low for Bitcoin price action in early October as demand faced external headwinds.

Bitcoin (BTC) could still maintain its traditional strong performance in October, as data on the chain points to a lower formation in the local BTC price.

A new analysis published on crypto analysis platform CryptoQuant on Monday shows the condition of the chain in a mode of "cautious optimism".

Bitcoin continues to face macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds that include the highest level of US bond yields in 24 years, rising oil prices and reduced capital flows to exchange-traded products. These conditions have dampened optimism for Bitcoin, offering a strong performance in October.

“Now, signs of potential downside are emerging,” wrote XWIN Research Japan, a CryptoQuant contributor.

Since the beginning of October, conditions have changed in a way that increasingly favors crypto-assets and risk. XWIN points to a reduction in expectations for a Fed rate hike in 2027, which increases the likelihood of improved inflows. At the same time, markets expect more clarity on the domestic political situation in the United States as the midterm elections approach.

"Less political uncertainty after the vote could help investors evaluate reallocations," XWIN continued.

Bitcoin exchange reserves, apparent demand and whale holding give XWIN reasons to believe that the October local low may have already occurred.

Bitcoin supply on exchanges fell from 2.726 million on Sept. 20 to 2.68. million dollars as of Tuesday, a 1.7 percent drop despite a slight increase last week.

Bitcoin Exchange BTC Reserves. Source: CryptoQuant

At the same time, the total assets owned by large investors, or whales, remain above 3 million bitcoins. The group's push to reduce exposure survived BTC/USD's decline from $87,000 on Oct. 2 to near $80,000 on Oct. 8.

Bitcoin whale stocks (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Apparent demand, a measure that compares newly mined Bitcoin to passive supply changes, shows that overall demand remains supportive.

The metric has been negative throughout 2026, with a brief period of 30-day positive readings in the second half of August. Since then, demand has been negative, but has recovered to near-neutral levels as of this week.

XWIN said: "These developments suggest that conditions are improving for prices to move lower. Confirmation is needed for sustained ETF inflows, stronger US cash purchases and continued improvement in demand."

Bitcoin Apparent Demand Growth Source: CryptoQuant

This week, crypto-asset manager Bitwise said Q3 blockchain data points to a “cryptocurrency spring” after historically impressive performance. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju announced what he saw as the start of a new crypto bull market in late August, calling the bear market "over."