Ukraine and Europe have no choice but to cooperate with Trump

Despite rising tensions over Russia, Kiev and European leaders remain dependent on US support.

"It hurts when President [Donald] Trump chooses a side, not our side," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday. The US president's controversial diesel deal with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, has become another source of tension between Washington and Ukraine and its European backers.

The reported disruption of Starlink/StarShield services on October 13-14, which misled the Ukrainian military, added to these tensions. The service was later restored, and reports that the restrictions were ordered by the White House to pressure Kiev remain unconfirmed.

Nevertheless, these two episodes have reinforced the perception of a widening gap between Ukraine and the United States. On Friday, Zelensky accused Washington of continuing to take down Starlink and promised the Russians new concessions.

Obviously, you have to wait for the dust to settle. Trump has already leaned toward Moscow, most notably at an August 2025 summit with Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, only to return to conditional support for Ukraine amid Russian intransigence and diplomatic efforts by Kiev and European leaders. Arrangements under which Europe pays Ukraine for US weapons are working, and the US continues to exchange information with Kiev despite reports that some critical information is withheld.

The White House has also backed away from proposals to recognize Crimea as legitimate Russia, as part of its April 2025 peace framework, or to require Kiev to withdraw from its entire Donbass region. In turn, Ukraine and Europe have continued to accompany Trump's diplomatic efforts in Moscow, led by his emissaries Steve Wittkoff and Jared Kushner.

Given bipartisan opposition in Congress, including Republican senators, the diesel deal itself may still fall through. Thus, Washington's recent shift toward Moscow may be less important than it currently appears.

The above is not a reason for the satisfaction of Ukraine and its main supporters in Europe. They have plenty of reason to worry beyond Trump's unpredictability.

The most important of them is Putin's determination to escalate the war. While Ukraine's air defenses are struggling, Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure are under daily attack by ballistic missiles and advanced jet-powered drones. The country is preparing for another harsh winter. A parallel publicity war has been going on, fueled by the diesel deal.

Unlike Ukraine, Russia never accepted Trump's offer of a partial ceasefire in attacks on energy facilities. However, Moscow is now portraying Kiev as a spoiler after renewed attacks in Ukraine, including an attack on a refinery in the city of Ryazan on Thursday, which Trump called a "disgrace".

Clashes with ships carrying Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea in Romanian waters have spilled over into NATO's eastern flank. Russia is expanding its hybrid attacks in Europe to disrupt arms and ammunition supplies to Ukraine and to influence public opinion in key countries such as Germany by instilling fear. In some corners of the EU, there is pressure to re-engage with Moscow. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico confirmed that the Slovak-Russian Intergovernmental Economic Commission will resume its work. His Bulgarian counterpart, Roman Radev, praised Trump's diesel diplomacy, even as Russian drones carried out strikes near Bulgaria's Black Sea coast.

Paying for Ukraine is another problem for Europeans. The 90 billion euro ($101 billion) loan approved by the European Union in April could run out before the end of 2027. Some estimates suggest that Kyiv will need an additional 70 billion euros ($79 billion) for defense and civilian purposes by 2027.

It's a threat that will open a can of worms for EU member states negotiating the EU's 2034-2028 budget.

With some calling for deep spending cuts, the controversial question of whether aid to Ukraine should come through Russian financial assets frozen in Europe is back with a vengeance. At the same time, Trump wants to release part of this money.

The dispute comes ahead of several key elections, notably France's presidential election in April and May, as well as polls in Spain, Italy and Poland.

Given the fragility in Europe, it is notable that diplomatic and financial support for Ukraine has remained relatively constant. Now is not the time to withdraw support for Ukraine, now is not the time to appease Russia, European Council President Antonio Costa said on Friday as he joined Zelenskiy and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels: "If we fall, 20 million Ukrainians will come to Europe." "Stay strong, defend our country," Zelensky reminded everyone.

On the eve of this summit, the European Union opened two clusters in the accession negotiations with Ukraine and imposed a new round of sanctions against Russia. Zelensky arrived in Brussels on Wednesday after talks with British Prime Minister Andy Burnham and King Charles III in London.

But there is a limit to how much more the EU and UK can do than what they already offer. They have already replaced the United States as the main international champion of Ukraine and the real guarantor of its survival as a country. EU membership – or at least a fully integrated partner like Norway – is the best long-term scenario for Kyiv.

At the same time, Europe lacks the political weight and military capability to replace America in the short term. This is very clear on the battlefield. Although European intelligence agencies could probably provide some data to the Ukrainians, there is no EU alternative to Starlink. Europe cannot deliver enough air defense systems and interceptors to repel Russian attacks without US support. Faced with US unreliability, Europe is investing in these capabilities to achieve strategic autonomy, but even in the best-case scenario, these efforts will take a decade to bear fruit.

Above all, the Europeans have little leverage they can use to bring Putin to the negotiating table. Sure, there may be positive incentives in the form of lifting sanctions and reviving the flow of oil and gas. But any Russian response is likely to require some form of pressure. The US has so far been unable to twist Putin's arm - and under Trump it has turned from stick to carrot, making all sorts of "deals" that mix diplomacy and trade. Part of this failure is due to the fear of escalating tensions with another nuclear power. Part of that is the opportunism of the current US administration. But the bottom line is that there is little reason to expect Europe to do better.

Given all this, both Zelensky and the Europeans are likely to return to a familiar approach: trying to keep Trump and smoothing over their differences as much as possible. They are probably hoping and praying that the current White House overtures to Russia will go away after the midterm elections. They will also tell Trump that the best way to preserve his legacy is to stand firm against Moscow, a position that enjoys support among his fellow Republicans. The strategy is to wait: first the winter, then the Trump presidency.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.