Fallout From Yemen War Hits Regional Security and Global Economy

The alarming escalation of Yemen-related conflicts has made Middle East developments even more complex than before. In particular, several attacks on the Saudi capital's airport, which have killed at least 14 people and injured hundreds, have widened the security and economic repercussions of these tensions beyond the Middle East.

In addition to making the complex issue of tension between Iran and America more difficult, these tensions have also affected the world's energy security even more than before.

The point that attracts more attention than the number of human casualties in this war is the significant change in the goals of the Houthis in Saudi Arabia. The Houthis have expanded the scope of their attacks from military targets and facilities to airport centers and oil and gas facilities. This change in tactics of the Houthis has become a strategic tool for them with the aim of influencing the geopolitical situation of the region.

The consequences of this strategy have already spread widely outside the region. After the attacks on the Saudi airports, oil prices increased in the world markets. After the Strait of Hormuz, now the Strait of Bab al-Mandab as two key waterways, both are under difficult and dangerous conditions. Global costs of energy and shipping are increasing at the same time, and in such a situation, the manufacturing and trade sectors will be the most vulnerable sectors.

Many countries have suspended or canceled flights to Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries, and a number of countries have issued travel warnings. These consequences mean that the cost of this war is not only borne by the parties to the war, but also forces the global economy and countless ordinary people to pay.

In addition, the expansion of the scope of the conflict in Yemen is designing a new security perspective for the region. The signing of the "Mecca Defense Agreement" between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan and the deployment of Pakistani military forces in Saudi Arabia have changed the security arrangement of the region. Even America has said that it is likely to join military operations against the Houthis. If extra-regional forces join the military operations against the Houthis, it can create a more dangerous and chaotic situation in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf region.

The continuous attacks of the Houthis on Saudi airports have several far-reaching consequences:

First: these attacks draw the attention and military resources of the United States. Washington must carefully consider whether to join this war or refrain from opening a new front.

Second: The attacks of the Houthis have provided Iran with another leverage and trump card that it can use at any time to have the upper hand in negotiations. The more America threatens military action, the more difficult it will be to get concessions from Iran on nuclear issues and sanctions.

Third: Some analysts believe that the airport attacks have caused casualties among American citizens, which could generate more political support within the United States for taking a tougher stance on Iran. On the other hand, in Iran, external pressures often become a tool to strengthen internal cohesion.

Despite all these difficult conditions and tensions, the hopeful thing is that diplomatic channels have not been closed yet. Seyyed Abbas Araghchi and Faisal bin Farhan, the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia, exchanged views on the recent escalation of regional conflicts and efforts to reduce tension in a telephone call on Sunday night. Saudi Arabia and Iran resumed diplomatic relations in 2023 with the mediation of China. Their ability to communicate directly about the Yemen issue shows that the channels of diplomacy and dialogue between the countries of the region can still be effective.

Objective experiences and facts have shown that military methods not only do not lead to real peace, but any military escalation will create more hatred, deeper divisions and a humanitarian disaster that will be much more difficult to compensate for.

About 12% of world trade moves through the Bab al-Mandab strait, which is a very significant figure. Any weakening of the security of this highway, any increase in the price of oil, the cancellation of flights and the resulting problems for the people, all point to a clear fact: no side can be spared from the consequences of this war. Only by moving the fire of war away from civilian installations will all sides have a better chance of returning to the negotiating table. This will not only help to establish a ceasefire in Yemen, but will also maintain the security of global energy routes and economic stability.