Trump Aides Admit Congress Is a Lost Cause

With only weeks until the midterm elections, the White House knows it must contest the Senate races, even as it effectively loses the House of Representatives.

That has been the point for Republican caucus officials, who have discussed the state of play with White House aides in recent weeks, according to three people familiar with the matter.

All of this comes as the White House goes into damage control mode after first speculating earlier this month that Republicans were likely to lose both chambers of Congress, as Inner Loop previously reported.

The general expectation is that parliament has become a lost cause. Races that the Republican leadership of Congress once thought could be flipped to undo Democratic gains are no longer within reach.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Speaker Mike Johnson, has now bought ads in Democratic districts in Michigan and Ohio that they hoped to flip, as well as in the Republican seat being vacated in Nebraska by retired Don Bacon. The fund also began canceling remaining ad reservations in two House races where Republicans are seeking re-election in New Jersey and Iowa.

White House aides have shifted their focus to an all-out defense of the Senate majority, which also appears problematic but to a lesser degree than the House, the sources said. (Survey models and prediction markets agree.)

Senate aides see the Senate still in play, sources said, because early returns for mail-in voting have been relatively strong and comparable to 2024 presidential election levels in key Senate states.

Trump officials at MAGA have also argued privately that if Republicans can pick up a combination of Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, it would create a firewall that would complicate the Democrats' path to wrest control of the Senate.

Still, Trump officials seem to accept that they are unlikely to win North Carolina. The Senate Republicans' campaign arm has halted campaign spending in North Carolina since early October, mirroring the pullback of other outside groups.

White House spokeswoman Liz Houston said in a statement: "President Trump is committed to maintaining the Republican majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate."

The state of play — pulling back from a state like North Carolina, where former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley is on the ballot — would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.

But it speaks volumes for the dire political climate Republicans are entering into the final stretch of the midterm cycle, which looks set to worsen by the week as high gas prices and lives from the Iran war remain on voters' minds.

With 20 days until the election, sources say, Trump officials are looking to maximize turnout from the MAGA base in November, rather than trying to win over swing voters that polls show won't win for Republicans.

"Republicans remain focused on winning, protecting and expanding President Trump's majority," Republican National Committee spokeswoman Natalie Baldassare said in a statement. "We're thinking outside the box to fight the typical midterm record."

This effort has been demonstrated in a direct voter game, with the president making nationwide appearances to connect directly with his supporters, and showing up at rallies in what should have been reliably Republican states.

Trump started the week with a bang in Ohio, where Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown is consistently polling ahead of Republican John Husted, who has been overcome by negative publicity calling him the "face of data centers."

On Tuesday, the president traveled to Wasilla, Alaska — once the home of former Gov. and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin — to help Senate President Dan Sullivan, a Republican, who is trailing Democrat Mary Peltola.

And after swinging through Arizona and Kentucky later this week, Trump is set to host a $1 million fundraising dinner for MAGA at his Mar-a-Lago club, replenishing a rapidly depleting war chest.

A person familiar with his thinking told Inner Loop that Trump remains steadfast in his belief that, if successful, he can get his supporters to the polls in November, as he did in the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections.

But Trump, whose polling remains one of the worst of any president in history, isn't always wanted at rallies. To date, the president has not run in Iowa with Republican candidate Ashley Hinson, who has recently begun opposing the president and calling for actions that could help end the Iran war altogether.