Dollar Price Forecast for Tuesday, 21 Mehr 1405 / Dollar's Next Move Hinges on Support at 261,000 Tomans

Dollar prices in Monday's trading, continuing to retreat from higher levels, returned to the 261,000-toman channel and fell 2,000 tomans compared with Sunday. Declining demand, market-maker intervention, and easing temporary political concerns were the main factors behind this trend.

The price of the dollar in Monday's trading continued to retreat from higher levels and returned to the channel of 261 thousand tomans and decreased by two thousand tomans compared to Sunday. The drop in demand, the intervention of the market maker and the reduction of temporary political concerns were among the factors influencing this trend.

According to Ambassador Arjan, the price of the dollar in trading on Monday, October 20, 1405 decreased by one thousand tomans compared to Sunday, and reached the figure of 262 thousand tomans. At the end of the day, this banknote was traded about two thousand tomans lower than the closing price on Sunday.

The decrease in demand in the market was one of the main factors of the price drop. As some of the temporary concerns subsided and traders' motivation to buy currency decreased, the demand pressure decreased. Besides that, supply and market management by the central bank also helped to control fluctuations.

On the other hand, diplomatic developments can still affect traders' expectations. Esmail Beqaei, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, announced on Monday that the exchange of messages between Iran and the United States continues through mediators, and Tehran will convey its response after examining the American response regarding the proposal related to the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iranian officials on Sunday considered Washington's response insufficient; Therefore, continuing the exchange of messages cannot be considered as a definitive agreement.

Now the range of 261 thousand tomans is important from a behavioral point of view; Because the price of the dollar has reached this level after several stages of retreat. Maintaining this range can help form a short-term bottom and provide the basis for demand to return. If the dollar encounters new buyers at this level, the move towards the range of 263-265 thousand Tomans can be investigated. In this scenario, stabilization above 265 thousand Tomans can strengthen the possibility of returning to the range of 267 thousand Tomans.

Economic experts believe that if the drop in demand and the market maker's supply effect continue in Tuesday's trading, the price of the dollar is expected to fluctuate in the range of 260 to 263 thousand tomans and its tendency to stabilize or decrease more.

They say that if the support of 261 thousand tomans is maintained and the demand increases at this level, there is a possibility of the price returning to the range of 263 to 265 thousand tomans. Passing and stabilizing above 265 thousand tomans can also open the way to move towards 267 thousand tomans.

On the other hand, the failure of the support of 261 thousand tomans along with the continuation of currency supply and the decrease in demand can bring the price of the dollar to the range of 258 to 260 thousand tomans. In this scenario, the behavior of buyers in the lower range will be very important; Because strengthening demand can prevent further decline.

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