Where Will Win and Lose in US Midterm Elections

A closer look at the polls, races and key issues ahead of the election that will define the last two years of Trump's presidency.

Americans will go to the polls on November 3 to decide what the rest of Donald Trump's presidency will look like.

Thousands of contests are taking place across the United States, at various levels of government. But the main event for voters is the election of members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two houses that make up Congress.

Both are currently controlled by the Republicans, the party of the president. The success or failure of the last two years of Trump's presidency could depend on its outcome.

Here's our visual guide to where the battle for power is being won and lost — from approval ratings, to key races and issues and how much money is being spent.

One reason the opposition Democrats have a chance to take back Congress is the president's low approval rating, which bodes well for his party's performance.

He began his second term with an approval rating of just over 50 percent, but quickly fell into the 40s, according to the Silver Bulletin polling source website.

It was around 42 percent when Trump decided to launch airstrikes with Israel against Iran at the end of February this year, but fell below 40 percent shortly afterward. It is currently sitting at around 37%.

Eight years ago, Trump's first-term approval rating was significantly higher at 43 percent. At the same point in his presidency, Joe Biden was at 40 percent. In both cases, the sitting president lost control of the House midterm but retained the Senate.

But Trump's weak approval ratings help explain why Democrats are hoping to win both houses of Congress and why they're eyeing states that Republicans have won in recent years.

The current Republican majority in the House of Representatives, the lower house, is just as thin — they have 218 representatives, the exact number needed for control, plus an independent who votes with them.

Members of the House serve two-year terms, so all 435 seats are up for election in November.

But most districts are not considered competitive because the party holding them has such strong support that there is only one possible winner.

The Cook Political Report, which analyzes election campaigns and elections, finds that there are only 21 "throwback" districts that can be won by either party.

Of those 21 toss-ups, 15 are currently held by Republicans and six are held by Democrats. If Democrats win five of the 28 likely or Democratic-leaning districts, they will win the House.

Historically, midterm elections see a large number of seats in the House of Representatives flip, usually in opposition to the White House. According to foreign data going back to 1934, the average number of defeats for a president's party is 27. Out of these 23 elections, the president's party has won only three elections.

Republicans have a slightly stronger hold on the Senate. They hold 53 of the 100 seats, while the Democrats hold 45 seats and two independents vote with them.

Senate members serve 6-year terms, so roughly a third are up for election every two years.

Thirty-five seats are up for grabs in November, but Cook Political Report analysis shows only seven of those are tossups that could go either way.

Of these launches, six are currently in the hands of the Republicans and one in the hands of the Democrats. Democrats need to win four of those seats, plus four seats classified as likely or leaning Democratic, to reach 51 and take control of the Senate.

But it is not easy for the Democrats to win the majority.

They should hold on to their seat in Michigan, where polls show the race between Abd al-Said, a left-leaning political outsider, and his Republican challenger, Mike Rogers, a Trump ally and former FBI agent, is tighter than Democrats would like.

They also need to pick up seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.

But polls show they have a chance, even in Texas, where former teacher James Talarico could become the first Democrat to win the state's Senate since 1988 if he defeats Ken Paxton, the state's current attorney general and a close Trump ally.

What will the Democratic control of Congress mean for Trump?

Anthony Zurcher: Republican Candidates Walking Trump's Tightrope

During his 2024 campaign, Trump pledged to end inflation and make America affordable again. But the cost-of-living crisis has proven to be a key issue for voters.

The president proudly announced that gas "is now below $2.30 (£1.74) a gallon in most states" in his February 24 State of the Union address. But war with Iran broke out four days later, disrupting energy supplies in the Middle East and sending gas to $4 (£3.03) in the US.

The war became increasingly unpopular as its consequences reverberated around the world, ultimately hitting the pocketbooks of American consumers. A poll conducted in August found that 63 percent of respondents disapprove of Trump's handling of the situation.

Other issues voters say are important to them include health care and immigration.

Trump has recently touted his immigration policies as a huge success, pointing to much lower numbers of border crossings than in recent years.

Many Democratic candidates have focused on the high costs of US health insurance and the impact of Trump's rules on access to the health care system.

Trump wants to cut fuel costs as midterm talks approach - will it work?

Most signs point to midterm success for Democrats, but this isn't the first time Trump and his party have outperformed the polls if they won more seats than expected.

One of the few things going in their favor is their huge financial advantage.

At the end of August, the Republican National Committee and its allied groups had more than $600 million (£455 million) in cash, while the Democrats had just under $400 million (£303 million).

In addition, Republicans also had more than $400 million in Trump-owned MAGA Inc., the main fundraising and spending arm of the Make America Great Again political movement.

Republicans use this financial advantage to buy ads.

According to foreign research firm AdImpact, more than $1 billion in political ads were broadcast to American voters in September. Republicans outspent Democrats by $200 million and outspent nearly every Senate race classified as a spending spree.

Trump hopes the late-night messaging can help convince Republicans to get out and vote in November, boost turnout and limit damage to him and his party.