Can war and sanctions lead to the development of a new social contract? / Crisis, the decline of political imagination and the possibility of a "restart" in Iranian society
Finally, in my opinion, we are facing a kind of duality and bipolarity in Iran. On the one hand, there are those who believe that we should reconcile with the world system and integrate into it; On the other hand, there are tendencies that emphasize the constant conflict with this system and want to continue this path until the end. The question is, do we have to choose between these two options? The truth is that I agree with some of the arguments of the proponents of reconciliation with the world system
Andisheh Group: Dr. Fatemeh Sadeghi wrote an article on the Mashak No website titled "The question of the possibility of a new beginning in today's world and Iran". According to his own writing, he has prepared the text of this article based on his speech at the "Reorganization of Society in Crisis" meeting of the Rahman Institute on October 15, 1405. By analyzing the concept of "crisis" in the context of the structural changes of the world system and Iran's special situation, the present text raises the fundamental question of whether there is a possibility of a "fresh start" for societies in the era of economic turmoil, the spread of widespread inequalities, the capture of information by social networks, and the increasing threats of artificial intelligence. Rejecting Iran's exceptionalism, the author analyzes the country's situation at the crossroads of major global crises; Where the governments are not only crisis controllers, but they themselves have become foci of instability, and contemporary man is trapped in the "iron cage of possibilities" and despair caused by the collapse of control. The focal axis of this discussion is based on the idea of "subordination of political imagination"; A critical situation in which the idea of catastrophe and the end of the world has become far easier than the idea of a more just order, and backward-looking political currents (such as monarchism or the populist right) have blocked the way to the future by being captive to illusory nostalgia. In the meantime, relying on the concept of "fertility" or natality in Hannah Arendt's political philosophy and the necessity of reviving utopian thinking, it is argued that getting out of the deadlock first requires overcoming the illusion of mere possession of power, while the necessary condition for getting out of the deadlock is to regain the human ability to imagine and create new collective relations. The author believes that despite all the heavy costs caused by war, embargo, poverty and structural wear and tear, there are living signs of a "social skinning" and the passing of external savior-oriented illusions can be seen in the context of Iranian society. This will to live, if it is linked with collective action and political translation, can provide a suitable platform for the formation of structural demands and the formulation of a new social contract from below. You will read this article below:
Can we speak of a new beginning in a crisis-stricken society? What potential is this beginning based on and what limitations and difficulties does it face? In the age of inequality, are social networks and artificial intelligence a new beginning? Is a new beginning possible in the context of the Middle East, which is facing all kinds of imperialist interventions? What is the role of political imagination in the new beginning?
At the beginning, I would like to remind you that my discussion is more of a question than an answer to the questions raised. Since I am not in Iran at the moment, I shared the part of this discussion that is related to the situation in Iran with some of my friends and took advantage of their consensus. I have to thank them; The views they raised were very enlightening for me. Of course, I am responsible for everything I say here.
Let me first talk a little about what exactly we mean when we talk about crisis. Crisis has a specific definition. One of its definitions can be found in the book State of Crisis by Sigmund Bauman. As you know, the word crisis is rooted in ancient Greek medical knowledge and refers to a situation in which the patient is on the verge of death; A critical and decisive situation in which, despite the severity of the danger, the work is not over yet and all efforts must be made to save the patient.
When we talk about crisis in social and political sciences, we are facing a similar situation: an emergency and fragile situation, which at the same time cannot be considered to mean that everything is lost or that any change is impossible. Therefore, although the situation is critical, all is not lost yet. This "still" is the key word of my argument.
I would like to remind you that here state has a double meaning: it refers to a situation and to the government and political order. In other words, we are in a situation where we are not only facing a critical situation, but we are also facing a crisis of the government itself.
According to the habit, we expect governments to reach out to the people in a crisis situation, but one of the characteristics of this situation is that the governments themselves are also exposed to crisis and cannot meet the expectations of them. Instead of being able to provide an appropriate response to the crisis, governments themselves have become a part of the crisis.
In my opinion, one of the characteristics of the world today is this situation: an emergency situation in which not only societies, but also governments and political systems are facing deep crises.
Iran: exception or part of the global crisis?
But what are these crises and what are their signs? In the following, I will talk about some of this crisis; Because we see their direct effects in Iranian society. Naturally, I cannot mention all the crises and I will only address some of them.
Before that, let me point out a methodological point that is important for my discussion: in many cases, Iran is considered an exceptional case, an out-of-the-rule case that must be analyzed in a special way. Part of this view is the result of the anti-system characteristic of the Islamic Republic and the political order of Iran after the revolution. Based on this, the prevailing opinion is that Iran has exceptional conditions due to its political isolation, isolation and a kind of exclusion from the world order process. Because Iran does not accept many rules of the world order, or is in conflict with them, its situation cannot be compared with the situation of other countries. As a result, what is true about Iran does not necessarily apply to other societies, and a completely different framework should be considered to analyze Iran.
In my opinion, this approach is deeply problematic. Because the anti-system of a state or society does not in any way mean that that state or society has fallen out of the world order and has become an exception outside of the rule. Therefore, it cannot be considered an exceptional case simply because Iran sometimes opposes or opposes the rules of the world order.
Iran is deeply affected by the world situation and in turn affects it. Of course, there is no doubt that Iranian society has its own characteristics and these characteristics should be considered in the analysis. But the peculiarities of Iranian society do not mean that we are facing a completely exceptional society that cannot be understood in connection with global developments.
Another point that we should pay attention to is that the world system itself has also faced a kind of crisis. This crisis is not only limited to the governments that we usually consider anti-system; Rather, the world system itself and its powerful governments are also involved in this situation.
For example, today the United States itself has become an anti-system state. We are no longer just talking about countries like North Korea, Iran or China - so-called rogue governments; Rather, we are facing a wider and faster process in which the rules of the international order are being increasingly ignored by the powers that have been the creators of the current international order. Ignoring the norms, rules and international laws and the resulting consequences are part of the conditions we are dealing with today.
From this point of view, the duality of system and anti-system is no longer sufficient to explain what is happening in the world. We cannot analyze the situation of countries and societies based only on this distinction.
In order to have a correct understanding of Iran's conditions, it is necessary to constantly go back and forth between international conditions and Iran's internal conditions; It means to consider both the domestic background of Iran and examine it in relation to global developments. For this reason, I will start with global crises when discussing crises.
Of course, I don't mean to examine all the world's crises in this opportunity or to claim that what is happening in Iran is a direct result of the world's crises. But part of Iran's developments, even if they are not directly caused by global crises, are deeply affected by them. I remind you that in order to avoid the length of the text, I have to mention these things very briefly.
inequality; A global crisis with intensified consequences in Iran
One of the most important crises that we are facing today in the global arena, and we are struggling with its consequences in some way in Iran, is the inequality crisis. Inequality has existed for a long time, but when we speak of it as a crisis, we mean that it has reached a threshold where it may essentially spiral out of control.
This situation can be seen in the frequent reports of international institutions. According to estimates, one percent of the world's population has more wealth than the other 99 percent; Ten percent of the population owns about three-quarters of the world's wealth, while the bottom fifty percent of the population's share of the world's wealth is only about two percent.
Of course, the crisis of inequality does not only have an economic form, that is, it is not only limited to inequality in wealth, but it is also social (the lack of balanced access of different social groups to resources and opportunities) and gender. The inequality crisis in Iran has also reached unprecedented dimensions, which is due to the implementation of incorrect economic and social policies. One of the most important inequalities today is the inequalities resulting from environmental crises, as a result of which different groups of the population are affected by the consequences of global warming, including floods and lack of water resources, among others. In the last few years, we have witnessed the formation of this crisis. Lack of water resources in Khuzestan and Zagros region and mismanagement of limited water resources in our country have been among the most important reasons for the formation of political unrest in recent years.
social networks; More connection, less authentic communication
One of the important phenomena in this situation is social networks; A phenomenon that has two different aspects at the same time. On the one hand, social networks can be the voice of the voiceless. You may have an account on X (Twitter) and through it, you can reflect your views and experiences when your voice does not go anywhere. This positive capacity of social networks still exists. But social networks also have negative consequences. A lot of false information and distorted information circulates in these networks, which lead to negative waves. The circulation of false information can even lead to the formation of social and political currents. For example, in Iran, in the past years, we have seen waves of hostility against Afghans that came from social networks, and these waves appear from time to time.
Social networks also play a role in the polarization of society. This phenomenon is the result of the formation of "echo chambers". It means that people are placed in an environment where they mainly hear their own voices and those who think like them, and opposing opinions are less heard. People in these bubbles constantly repeat each other's views.
For example, in X or Instagram, algorithms make the content displayed to the user more consistent with his previous beliefs and interests. As a result, the same beliefs are constantly repeated for people, and the opportunity to encounter different points of view decreases. This issue is one of the reasons for social polarization, because it makes a black and white duality take shape in a single issue and the possibility of consensus is reduced to a minimum.
Another consequence of social networks is that they may have made it easier for us to connect with each other, but they have not necessarily increased genuine communication and the possibility of real dialogue between us, and on the contrary, they have decreased it. Therefore, social networks may become a critical phenomenon in some situations. Today, we can talk about the crisis of social networks at the global level; A crisis where misinformation can create ripples that have serious social and political consequences.
Artificial intelligence and the threat of human perception and imagination
In this context, I think it is important to mention artificial intelligence. Of course, artificial intelligence has also had very positive uses. For example, in the field of medicine, the huge amount of information and the processing power of this technology are used to recognize diseases and help treat them. Therefore, as with social networks, the capabilities of artificial intelligence cannot be ignored or considered completely negative.
However, AI has also had troubling implications that will likely become clearer in the future. Just a few days ago, it was reported in the news that some people who work in artificial intelligence companies have expressed concern that this technology may gradually get out of control and even threaten human existence. Artificial intelligence can get out of control and achieve unimaginable capabilities by hacking information.
Regardless of this aspect, one of the most worrying issues is that artificiality is affecting our perception of ourselves and what it means to be human. The question is what effect does this technology have on our perceptive and imaginative ability as humans.
I am experiencing this issue with my students. From 2023 to today, in a gap of about three years, a large part of students are inclined to use artificial intelligence in writing student essays and theses. Even those who do not want to use it, may find themselves forced to use it due to the concern of not falling behind others.
Although the writing quality of theses and student essays may have improved, creativity, analytical ability, and depth of perception have decreased. The reason is that we are gradually entering a situation where artificial intelligence can replace a part of human cognitive and intellectual processes. Previously, when we wanted to write a scientific article, we had to read many books and articles and engage with the texts. Today, artificial intelligence can prepare research literature for students in a short period of time. This possibility, on the one hand, makes the work easier. But on the other hand, it may exempt them from deep engagement with the texts. As a result, there will be less opportunity to develop analytical skills, judicious use of texts and recognition of research gaps. In this sense, this technology may gradually take away a part of our ability to analyze.
What kind of situation we will face in the future, with the expansion of artificial intelligence, is one of the serious questions before us. But it seems that we are gradually approaching a situation in which the fate of mankind becomes more dependent on forces beyond human control and on robots; Something similar to what we used to see in science fiction movies.
One of the characteristics that can be mentioned for our age is that our facilities have clearly increased compared to the past; But this increase in possibilities does not necessarily mean an increase in our ability to change our situation. Although in some areas our possibilities - mainly technological - have increased, but our ability to change the situation has become more limited. We have far more technological capabilities than ever before, but we don't necessarily have more power to change our own situation.
Likewise, increased means have not necessarily led to increased happiness. Humans today are much more resourceful than they were a generation or two ago, but they are not necessarily happier. Therefore, wealth, comfort, facilities and happiness cannot be considered synonymous concepts; There may even be an inverse relationship between them.
In other words, our possibilities have increased, but as if the feeling of being trapped and powerless has also increased. It is as if we are trapped in the "iron cage of possibilities". This interpretation may seem contradictory at first glance, because we expect more facilities to mean more freedom and power; But in practice, such a relationship is not always established. Max Weber used the expression "iron cage of bureaucracy" and today we can speak of "iron cage of facilities".
A few years ago, Sigmund Bauman, whom I mentioned earlier, used an analogy that I think is very telling. He says, imagine a group of passengers boarding a plane. In the middle of the way, it is announced from the cockpit that this plane has no pilot, its destination is unknown and it is not clear how and where it is going to land.
Usually, when we get on the plane, we expect the pilot to explain the flight path, destination and landing time. But in this allegory, the passengers have unwittingly and unknowingly boarded a plane whose destination is unknown and no one is piloting it. With this allegory, Bauman intends to visualize for us the critical situation of today's modernity and the resulting insecurity. Our situation is just like the passengers of an airplane that is flying in the sky, but its destination is unknown and it is not clear where it is going to land or if it can land at all. This allegory expresses the limitation that we face to change the situation and it is an embodiment of the emergency and crisis situation that we are facing today.
Obviously, in this situation, we feel insecure, stressed and anxious at the same time. There's not much we can do when we're strapped to our seats on an airplane in the middle of the sky. Naturally, in such a situation, we struggle with feelings such as desperation, anger, powerlessness, despair and depression, which are much more intense in today's Iran.