Why Does Rubio's Visit to Uzbekistan Matter?

Rubio's visit to Uzbekistan reflects Washington's efforts to consolidate its economic and geopolitical influence in Central Asia and to compete with China and Russia over the region's resources, technology, and trade routes.

According to Ambassador Arjan, Modern Diplomacy published a note and claimed: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Samarkand, Uzbekistan in "mid-October" to participate in the C5+1 meeting with the aim of strengthening the interaction of the United States with the Central Asian region. He will also chair a "historical" delegation of more than 100 American companies; A delegation whose purpose is to strengthen the American commercial presence in this important region.

The venue of this meeting is of particular importance; Because the Uzbek government is trying to expand its relations with the United States. One of the signs of increasing interactions between Washington and Tashkent is the invitation of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, to the President of Uzbekistan, Shaukat Mirziyoyev, and the President of Kazakhstan, Kasim Jumart Toqayev, to attend the G20 meeting in Miami in December.

On September 2, the Embassy of Uzbekistan in the United States held the Independence Day ceremony of the country at the famous "Willard Intercontinental" hotel in the center of Washington. In the speeches of this ceremony, it was suggested that Donald Trump visit Tashkent; The trip, if realized, will be the first visit of an American president to Central Asia.

In addition to Rubio's upcoming trip, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith recently chaired a congressional delegation to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. This trip was made after a meeting in the House of Representatives Committee on strategic partnerships to secure critical resources and supply chains.

Sapargli Shalgimbaev, the head of the "C5" think tank in Astana, Kazakhstan, told Modern Diplomacy about this: "For those who have emphasized the need to strengthen the economic relations between the United States and Central Asia for years, the fact that these issues are now being raised at such a level in the Congress is of particular importance."

Sergio Gore, the US President's special representative for South and Central Asia, recently met with Shaukat Mirzayev in Tashkent.

Diplomatic interactions between the two countries continue inside the United States as well. According to a message published in Telegram, Saida Mirziyeva, the head of the presidential office of Uzbekistan and the daughter of the president of this country, met with Donald Trump. However, neither government has released any further information about the meeting.

Uzbekistan is also expanding its diplomatic presence in the United States. In addition to its embassy in Washington and consulate in New York, the country officially opened a new consulate in Seattle in early September. This new diplomatic center has started working in a situation where economic and political relations between Tashkent and Washington are expanding.

Economic and trade relations between the United States and Uzbekistan are also developing. In June, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer visited Tashkent and signed a series of trade commitments to strengthen bilateral economic and investment ties.

Some new contracts have also attracted a lot of attention. In 2025, Tashkent announced plans to buy up to 22 Boeing 787 Dreamliners worth $8.5 billion to modernize its commercial aviation industry. These planes provide the possibility of establishing long-term direct flights between America and Uzbekistan and can help to increase tourism and economic communication.

Of course, investments are not made only by America in Uzbekistan. The Uzbek company "Afka" is building a manufacturing plant in Bowling Green, Kentucky. This will be the first factory of an Uzbek company in the United States, and in addition to creating more than 300 job opportunities, it is an example of increasing trade and investment relations between the two countries.

This project also challenges some common notions about US-Central Asian relations; Because it shows that investment in this regard is not made only by Washington towards the region.

However, it is still unclear to what extent the C5+1 meeting in Samarkand and the meeting of American companies with their regional counterparts will lead to new trade and investment agreements. It is easy to hold meetings and sign initial agreements, but negotiating actual contracts will usually be time-consuming and complicated.

Other areas of cooperation between the United States and Uzbekistan face more restrictions. Since 2012, the Mississippi National Guard has been working with the Uzbek military to increase the military capabilities of the Central Asian country. However, military cooperation with Central Asia has decreased due to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the war in Ukraine and Washington's military operations in other parts of the world.

The capacity of technological cooperation between the United States and Uzbekistan may also be affected by the presence of other competitors. Uzbekistan is one of the founding members of the "World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization" (WAICO); An alliance that China has created to strengthen cooperation among members in the field of artificial intelligence development.

The problem is that Washington has also created its own technological block called "Pax Silica" and does not want countries to be members of both frameworks at the same time. Kazakhstan is the only country that has so far become a member of both WAICO and Pax Silica, and Astana is currently under pressure from Washington to choose one of these two paths.

Although it is unlikely that Tashkent will pursue a similar strategy, the existence of a Chinese-led cooperation framework reduces the leverage of American pressure on Uzbekistan in terms of technological choices.

Two important signs of interaction between America and Uzbekistan; That is, Rubio's successful trip to Tashkent within the framework of the C5+1 meeting and Shaukat Mirzayev's successful attendance at the G20 meeting can create a positive foundation for Washington-Tashkent relations and even broader American relations with Central Asia next year.

However, this is a challenge in itself; Because the US government is facing many domestic and global issues at the same time. The US mid-term elections, the re-escalation of conflicts in Iran, the expansion of the Russia-Ukraine war, or the increase in the price of food and oil inside the US, may become the priority of Washington's foreign policy and limit its attention to Central Asia.

Ideally, after Rubio's visit, Washington should look for concrete projects that will keep the interactions between the two countries stable. Canceling the "Jackson-Vanik" amendment is one of the options; However, the probability of its realization seems very small.

Also, establishing direct flights between Tashkent and American cities, using the new fleet of Boeing planes, can help increase tourism. Finally, U.S.-Uzbekistan cooperation should go beyond just focusing on energy and vital mineral resources; Because other sectors of Uzbekistan's economy and industries also need development and investment.

Of course, relations between Washington and Tashkent are not formed in a geopolitical vacuum. Several actors are active in Central Asia. In addition to the great world powers, countries such as Turkey, India, Pakistan, South Korea and the Republic of Azerbaijan are also important partners of the region.

Relations between Baku and Tashkent have also been expanding in recent years, and the two countries are pursuing the goal of increasing the volume of trade and strengthening transit cooperation.

Arab countries were also important investors in Central Asia before the war between Iran and America/Israel. However, the future of their investment and business projects remains uncertain due to the heavy consequences of this conflict and the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

Even US foreign policy priorities may change under the influence of global crises and mid-term elections.

In other words, Washington needs continuous and dynamic interaction to strengthen its position in Central Asia; Because other actors, especially the powers that are geographically closer to the region, have an active presence.

The Uzbek government will undoubtedly welcome such a process. In the future, relations between Washington and Tashkent can expand, but these relations require diversification and continuous transformation.

The visit of the US Secretary of State and a "historic" business delegation to Uzbekistan and Central Asia is very important, but what happens after the end of these visits will be more important; Because the real consequences of these meetings will be revealed in the implementation phase.