Behind the scenes of the postponement of the Palestinian elections

Nearly two decades have passed since the last elections of the Palestinian Legislative Assembly; A decisive event in 2006, in which Hamas won a stunning victory and won the majority of votes, overtaking the Fatah movement - which had cast a shadow on the Palestinian political sphere for years. Since then, the process of democratic elections in the Palestinian territories has been deadlocked, and five years have passed since the cancellation of the elections that were supposed to be held in 2021.

Ambassador Arjan-International Group: In a completely surprising move that none of the Palestinian currents expected, Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree on July 9, 2026 (18 July 1405), announcing the date of legislative elections on November 28 (Azer 7) of this year. This decision raised a wave of surprise and question in the Palestinian society; Especially for the people of Gaza, who are involved in vital crises and providing basic needs such as food and shelter, the election process seemed like a luxury in these conditions. On the other hand, the Palestinian groups also considered the current platform unfavorable, despite the complaint of not having a role in choosing the schedule. According to them, due to the continuation of killing and destruction in Gaza, the expansion of settlements and attacks in the West Bank, and the Judaization of Jerusalem and the attack on holy places, the priority is to immediately stop the aggression, realize national reconciliation, and confront the occupation in an integrated manner. However, most of these currents directly or conditionally announced their readiness to participate in the elections.

There is no doubt that the legislative assembly elections are more than a simple electoral competition to determine 132 parliamentary seats; This event is an integral part of a wider movement about the future of the Palestinian political system. This campaign puts the fate of the liberation organization, the future of the self-governing organizations, how to restore the lost legitimacy of the Palestinian national institutions and the Palestinians' agency in determining their own destiny. Despite the vital importance of this campaign for the future of Palestine, the issuance of the decree to hold elections was not the result of a national dialogue or a broad consensus among political currents.

For this reason, most Palestinians, relying on past experiences, guessed from the beginning that the elections would either be canceled or postponed this time. It was quite obvious to the public opinion that the current situation in the Palestinian territories is not conducive to holding a national election. Hence, Abbas seemed to have issued this decree mainly in response to international pressure to implement the promised reforms and restore the legitimacy of the self-governing organization, rather than as a response to domestic demands and demands.

This was not the first time that the self-governing organization changed the rules of the game unilaterally. Abbas had previously amended the election law without reaching a national dialogue and relying solely on his presidential decrees; An approach that provoked widespread protests from different factions at the same time. However, this time things seemed to be more serious; The Central Election Commission had officially started the implementation process; The process of introducing the candidates has been started and the advertising campaigns were supposed to start soon. But in the midst of these movements, suddenly on October 10 (18 Mehr) the news of postponement was issued. Mahmoud Abbas's decision to cancel the November 28 election and postpone it to September 11, 2027, did not surprise the Palestinian community; Because in the political atmosphere of Palestine, neither the news of this sudden cancellation was unexpected, nor the excuses and reasons that were raised to justify this withdrawal.

Based on the decrees issued and the official correspondence of the self-governing organization - in particular, the letter of Hossein al-Sheikh, the deputy head of the organization, to the French government - the official reasons for postponing the elections were summarized in four axes:

* Logistical obstacles in Gaza: the continuation of the occupation, the non-withdrawal of Israeli forces, preventing the entry of election items and severe restrictions on the entry of international observers.

* Security and governance challenges in Jerusalem and the West Bank: severe movement restrictions, the development of settlements and the insistence on the necessity of the participation of East Jerusalem residents despite Israel's objections.

* The financial crisis of the self-governing organizations: the severe economic crisis caused by the seizure of tax revenues by Israel, which made it impossible to provide a heavy budget for holding elections.

* Necessity of coordination and national dialogue: claiming the need for more opportunity to reach a comprehensive agreement between Palestinian groups to hold simultaneous parliamentary and presidential elections.

However, the obvious fact was that none of the aforementioned factors were new crises that occurred between the issuance of the decree and the announcement of its postponement. The situation in Jerusalem has been like this for years, and five years ago (in 2021) it was precisely used as an excuse to postpone the elections. Gaza has been the target of genocide, ethnic cleansing and systematic destruction for three consecutive years, and the West Bank has long been fragmented between a network of military checkpoints and Zionist settlements. So what was the real reason for the postponement? What new variable occurred in this short interval that did not exist when the original decree was issued?

In the most optimistic scenario, under heavy international pressure - especially from the European Union and the United States - to implement structural reforms, the self-governing administration wanted to send a positive signal to the international community by setting the election date and show itself committed to the principles of democracy. With this diplomatic maneuver, Abbas hoped to persuade the West to apply pressure on Tel Aviv to obtain the permission to hold elections in East Jerusalem. But when it was officially determined that Israel would not make any concessions in the case of East Jerusalem and financial and logistical crises persisted, the self-governing administration used these chronic obstacles as a legal excuse to postpone the elections.

But if we look at the situation realistically, the main factor should be sought in the transformation of Ramallah's field calculations and the fear of failure at the ballot boxes; Fundamental changes in the political composition of the Palestinian forces that occurred after the initial decree was issued, and which the self-governing organization never imagined. The establishment's deep concern did not arise only from the power of traditional rivals; Rather, the main nightmare originated from within the Fatah movement itself. The formation of critical streams, parallel lists and opposing voices from influential figures and historical leaders of Fatah sounded the alarm. This unprecedented disintegration in the party body already meant the defeat of Fatah's official list against united rivals.

In addition, the specter of the 2006 elections and the decisive victory of Hamas continued to weigh on Abbas. At first, the self-governing organization believed that Hamas was weakened due to the war and assassinations of Israel, and that the space was ready to restore the power of Fatah. It was even thought that Hamas and resistance groups would boycott the elections. But Hamas quickly welcomed the elections and announced its readiness to enter the widest possible coalition. With the serious entry of groups into the field and the beginning of the formation of new convergences, the concern of failure increased.

In the meantime, speculations indicated that if the efforts are successful, an all-encompassing coalition will be formed that includes Hamas, Mohammad Dahlan (former official and critic of Fatah) and Marwan Barghouthi; It brings together the well-known and popular figure who is called "Nelson Mandela of Palestine". Presenting a joint electoral list by this powerful triangle would create a formidable challenge for Mahmoud Abbas and the self-governing organization. These tactical and unexpected alliances completely changed the balance of power to Abbas's disadvantage; A coalition that intended to gather strong and independent figures under a single umbrella.

At the same time, internal polls showed that support for Fatah and Abbas has reached its lowest level due to internal differences, corruption, economic crisis and growing public anger, and holding elections practically means handing over the Shura Council to the rivals. According to the Palestinian elite, the ruling power will not go to the polls until it is sure of its definitive victory. Of course, the factor of Israel should not be underestimated; Because Tel Aviv definitely does not allow holding elections that endanger its interests.

Finally, the leak of news about the possibility of an alliance between Hamas and Dahlan last month caused a heavy shock to the power structure in Ramallah and sparked several meetings in Cairo between Fatah, Hamas, Dahlan's faction and other groups; The negotiations that revolved around the need to reach a national agreement before the ballot boxes practically paved the necessary political platform for the postponement. In this way, the leadership of the self-governing organization, which had issued the election order with full knowledge of the conditions in Gaza and the West Bank, when receiving ballot boxes instead of consolidating power leads to its transfer, citing the same obstacles as before and this time relying on understandings with Palestinian groups, postponed the elections. Following these developments, Cairo has become the platform for a new round of dialogue between key Palestinian factions since Wednesday, October 14/22. These preparatory meetings, which were opened with the presence of representatives of Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the People's Front for the Liberation of Palestine, are trying to provide the necessary platform for an inclusive national discourse and the achievement of lasting reconciliation. The main agenda of these new negotiations is to rebuild the political structure, examine the options for restoring national unity and define a common approach to face the current challenges; An effort whose ultimate goal is to create the necessary political and security conditions for the simultaneous holding of elections for the head of the organization and the legislative assembly on a new date (September 2027).

Thus, although the postponement of the elections was caused by the fear of the transfer of power, it has now turned the Palestinian political scene into a diplomatic marathon in Cairo; A marathon that will show if the postponement of the elections will lead to a national reconciliation or if this postponement was just buying time to maintain the status quo?