Safir Arjan poll: Cost-of-living concerns weigh on GOP ahead of midterms

Safir Arjan poll shows Trump's approval on inflation at its lowest level, at 22%, as 6 in 10 voters say the cost of living is their top economic concern.

Trump asks reporters about the Russia-Ukraine war, midterm elections and live broadcasts

US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters at the White House about the war between Russia and Ukraine. Trump criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, saying he could have resolved the war many times.

The economic outlook is unclear. Six in 10 voters say the cost of living is their top economic concern, overshadowed by government spending (15 percent), jobs and income inequality (7 percent each), tariffs (6 percent) and taxes (5 percent).

A majority say the economy is negative (74%) and expect it to get worse next year (53%), while two-thirds are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in the country (66%). A few, 18 percent, say their family is better off than two years ago. Independents say they are worse off (52%) and think the economy will get worse (70%).

A majority of voters, 55 percent, say inflation is "not at all" under control. This is compared to 45% earlier this year and 30% of Republicans.

President Donald Trump's lowest job approval rating is adjusted for inflation: 22 percent approve, a new low. Last summer, 36 percent approved. Four years ago, before the 2022 midterm elections, 29 percent approved of former US President Joe Biden's performance on inflation.

Disapproval of what Trump is doing is at 77% on inflation, 70% on the economy, 69% on tariffs and 64% on foreign policy. A smaller share, but still a majority, disapprove of his handling of immigration (56% disapprove), while border security is the only issue that comes close to positive (50% approve, 50% disapprove).

The approval rating among Republicans is the lowest at 76 percent. This figure has decreased by 3 points compared to last month, by 12 points since September 2025, and by 16 points since the beginning of the second term of his presidency (March 2025).

As with most midterms, voters tend to punish the party in power: 7 in 10 say they would vote to send Trump a message, with nearly twice as many disapproving (47%) as supporting (25%).

If the election were held today, 54 percent of voters say they would support the Democratic candidate in their House district, and 45 percent would support the Republican. That's outside the margin of error and a bigger margin than last month, when Democrats led 51 percent to 44 percent. The race narrows among those who say they will definitely vote, with a 52 percent to 46 percent lead over the Democratic nominee.

The poll shows similar numbers identify with Democrats (43 percent) and Republicans (41 percent), and both parties are confident about voting (62 percent and 64 percent, respectively), while more Democrats (61 percent) than Republicans (52 percent) say they are strongly interested in the election.

Party loyalty is consistent: 98 percent of Democrats support their party's nominee, and 94 percent of Republicans support theirs. The independents are in favor of the Democrats with 26 points.

The Democratic nominee is leading among whites with a degree, people under 45, women, union families and Hispanics. The Republican leads among whites without a college degree (especially white men without a degree), those 65 and older, voters who participate, attend regular religious services, military veterans and white evangelical Christians.

While 43 percent of Hispanic voters supported Trump in the 2024 election, only 31 percent preferred the Republican candidate this year.

Meanwhile, Democrats are leading on 10 of 13 concerns.

Voters' top five concerns are government corruption (60 percent very concerned), inflation (58 percent), gasoline prices (50 percent), government leadership (49 percent), and health care (48 percent). And Democrats are trusted by double digits over Republicans to manage either.

Republicans lead on crime (by 10 points) and border security (R+8), while views are split on immigration (R+3). Democrats are seen better on health care (D+22), inflation (D+16), gas prices (D+12), voting rights (D+12), election integrity (D+12), government leadership (D+11), what is taught in public schools (D+11), artificial intelligence (D+10), government corruption (D+10), and government corruption (D+10).

Republicans have lost ground on key issues compared to four years ago, when more voters trusted them by 21 points on border security, 13 points on inflation and 9 points on foreign policy.

Other issues voters are most concerned about are the Iran war (42%), immigration (35%), crime (34%), voter suppression (32%), artificial intelligence technology (32%), what is taught in public schools (29%), voter fraud (28%) and border security (25%).

While government corruption and inflation are top concerns for both parties, far more Democrats (72 percent and 70 percent) than Republicans (47 percent and 49 percent) are extremely concerned.

The issue that helps explain the Democratic advantage is not an issue at all. By a 14-point margin, more voters think Democrats will do a better job of "fighting for people like you." Majorities of white college-educated voters (53%), men (52%), women (60%) and non-white voters (77%) think Democrats will fight for them. Whites without a college degree split 49-49 percent.

Despite the issue advantage, only 35 percent say Democrats have a clear plan to deal with the country's problems, and 33 percent say the same about Republicans. That reverses the Republican advantage from July 2025, when 43 percent said Republicans have a clear plan, compared with 33 percent for Democrats.

There is deep dissatisfaction with lawmakers: 15% approve of Congress, while 84% disapprove. Notably, this is higher than the minimum 9% approval in October 2013.

Both sides are viewed negatively. The Democratic Party is down 16 points (42% favorable, 58% unfavorable), while the Republican rating is down 23 points (38% favorable, 61% unfavorable).

However, favorable ratings do not translate directly into vote choices. A third of those who support the Democratic candidate (31%) dislike the party, while 23% of Republican supporters hate the Republican Party. Among the 26 percent who hate both parties (double hate), Democrats lead 62 percent to 36 percent.

How polarized the parties are: Only 16 percent of Republicans say Democrats love America and want the best for the United States, and even fewer Democrats, 6 percent, think Republicans do.

Compared to four years ago, the number of voters who say Democrats want the best for the country is up four points, while fewer say Republicans like the country now, 6 percentage points.

51% of voters have a favorable view of capitalism compared to 32% for socialism. Compared to a year ago, positive ratings for capitalism have dropped by 2 points, while for socialism it has increased by 5 points. Eight in 10 of those who view socialism favorably support the Democratic candidate, while 6 in 10 of those who view capitalism favorably support the Republican candidate.

Voters who plan to vote early (with 19 points) favor the Democratic candidate (with 19 points) as do voters by mail (D+33), while the candidate choice is split between those who vote in person (early or on Election Day).

6 out of 10 people are against US military action against Iran and 56 points support the Democrats.

A new high of 46 percent thinks the U.S. supports Israel too much, with voters favoring the Democratic nominee by 42 points, compared to 4 in 10 who think U.S. support for Israel is about right, favoring the Republican by 27 points.

6 out of 10 people have a negative view of artificial intelligence technology and 27 points support the Democratic candidate.

An expert called California the "Wild West" for surrogacy after a couple was accused of abusing surrogates.

Hochul dodges when pressed on illegal immigrant crime victims: "Are you apologizing?"

The Democrats' electoral crusade against Trump hit a criminally embarrassing blunder at home.