an analysis; What is the most likely alternative to Iran war?

The American analyst said: the return of oil exports to the levels close to the pre-war, does not mean the end of the disturbances.

Ambassador Arjan - Political Group: An American foreign policy researcher said that the war between America and Israel against Iran has strengthened Tehran's pressure on regional security, has put pressure on the resources and military power of the United States and the country's relations with its allies, and has imposed heavy costs on the common people of Iran. without leading to a change of government or diplomatic progress.

Susan Maloney, a researcher at the Brookings Institute, considered the attack on Riyadh a sign of the war's failure to overthrow the Iranian government and said that this conflict may have revived the network of Tehran's proxy forces in the region. He warned that even a limited group like the Houthis can disrupt the Persian Gulf countries' efforts to attract tourists and invest in financial and technological fields.

Maloney added that the return of oil exports to near pre-war levels does not mean the end of disruptions. According to him, the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has not been restored to the same extent, and the transfer of oil cargoes still requires expensive ship-to-ship operations and the extensive deployment of the US Navy.

He questioned the sustainability of this situation and pointed to the war's broader costs to America's military preparedness and global prestige.

This researcher also said that the 2015 nuclear agreement did not cover Iran's missile program and proxy forces, but it limited Iran's nuclear program for a while. According to him, America's withdrawal from this agreement allowed Iran to expand its enrichment capacity and develop its nuclear infrastructure.

In response to a question about the reason for the stalled negotiations, Maloney said in a podcast of the American media group Arcmedia that the demands of the two sides are not compatible with each other. According to him, Iran is looking for a meaningful and sustainable lifting of sanctions and achieving economic opportunities; On the other hand, Washington wants Tehran to give up having a domestic nuclear industry; A request that Iran has been rejecting for decades.

In Maloney's view, the war has failed to score the points Washington is seeking. Instead, Iran has managed to keep the US engaged, impose economic costs on it, and complicate Washington's strategic priorities in other regions, including Ukraine and China.

This US foreign policy analyst warned about the possibility of renewed conflicts and said that the public statements of US President Donald Trump about delaying the war until after the mid-term congressional elections do not necessarily mean that the escalation of tensions is ruled out.

Referring to the deployment of American troops to the region, Maloney predicted that conflicts could flare up again due to the lack of decisive progress on the path of diplomacy.

He also expressed doubts about the US government having the technical expertise and strategy necessary to negotiate a meaningful agreement. In his view, the most likely alternative is the continuation of a prolonged state of "neither war, nor peace" that keeps oil markets and the global economy in limbo.

In response to a question about the status of Iran's nuclear program, this researcher refused to use the expression "one step to the finish line", but said that this program had reached a very worrying stage. He also said that the previous US operation stopped Iran's enrichment for the first time in the last two decades; However, the war did not lead to the collapse of the Iranian government, and the US government did not have a clear plan to end the conflict.

What can be considered a victory?

In response to a question about the scenario where the Iranian government remains in power, but its military power is weakened and its nuclear program is damaged, the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, part of the sanctions are lifted, and Iran accepts restrictions on its nuclear program, Maloney said that such a situation is better than the current situation, but it cannot be considered a victory for America.

He expressed doubts about whether the war's military gains were worth the costs and warned that lifting sanctions might help the Iranian government consolidate its power and present the war's outcome to the public as a victory.

Asked whether Trump had resisted pressure to make concessions ahead of the midterm elections, Maloney said Iran had underestimated the US military's ability to keep shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, he emphasized that maintaining this situation has a high cost and that Tehran is seeking a permanent change in the regional power balance; A change that includes Iran's influence on the Strait of Hormuz and the acquisition of economic benefits.

Summing up his view of the prospect of war, Maloney said: "We have arrived at a situation where there is neither war nor peace; There is neither clarity nor certainty."