Israel Enters Yemen War | Netanyahu's New Plan for Elections and Saudi Arabia | Three Options Before Netanyahu
Ahead of the October 27 election, Benjamin Netanyahu may prioritize a military strike on Houthi positions in Yemen as a way to strengthen his political standing and move closer to Saudi Arabia.
According to Ambassador Arjan Ben Kaspit, an Israeli reporter and analyst of Al-Monitor, writes in a report that despite the possibility of another attack on Iran, regional developments and Netanyahu's election calculations can set a new path for the Israeli government.
war; A tool to strengthen the electoral position
According to Kaspit, an Israeli security source believes that the escalation of military tensions could increase Netanyahu's chances of winning the elections. In such a situation, security issues once again become the focus of political competition and the Prime Minister of Israel gets the opportunity to highlight the alleged achievements of the war against Iran and Hezbollah.
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Even the possibility of postponing elections in the event of a war is not necessarily a concern for Netanyahu; Because the military conflict can affect the political atmosphere of Israel and divert the attention of public opinion from other internal issues.
A survey by the Israel Institute for National Security Studies in September also showed that 68 percent of Israelis expect the war with Iran to resume; On the contrary, only 14% have rejected such a possibility. These statistics show that security concerns continue to form an important part of Israel's public space.
Why has Yemen become the first choice?
While there were reports that the Pentagon was preparing for a possible resumption of large-scale operations against Iran, Donald Trump announced that Washington would not attack Iran before the US mid-term elections in November. He also described the negotiations with Tehran as constructive.
This position, along with the increase in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, may have changed Netanyahu's calculations. According to the Al-Monitor report, the recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including the attacks that killed Saudi citizens, have increased Riyadh's security concerns.
In such an atmosphere, Israel's attack on Yemen can be both a military response to the threat of the Houthis and provide an opportunity for Netanyahu to present himself as an effective actor in securing the region.
Trying to get closer to Mohammed bin Salman
One of Netanyahu's possible goals is to make Israel an important defense partner of Saudi Arabia and revive the process of normalizing relations between the two countries. An Israeli diplomatic source said Netanyahu hopes security cooperation against the Houthis can persuade Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to put normalization back on the agenda.
Israel has capabilities in the field of gathering information, carrying out precise attacks and intercepting ballistic missiles that can be useful for Saudi Arabia. In recent weeks, through Washington, Netanyahu has conveyed proposals for intelligence and military cooperation to Riyadh.
However, Saudi Arabia has shown no desire for Israel's open participation in military operations against the Houthis. Worrying about the reaction of public opinion, especially in a situation where no progress has been made on the Palestinian issue, is considered a serious obstacle to open cooperation between the two sides. According to Caspit, Riyadh is limiting Netanyahu's expectations, although there are reports of US-brokered intelligence assistance.
Iran is still at the center of Israel's concern
Besides the option of Yemen, the possibility of attacking Iran again is not ruled out. Israeli military officials have discussed this scenario with their American counterparts; However, such an operation could delay the Israeli elections and have significant political consequences.
The main concern of Tel Aviv is the reconstruction of Iran's missile and drone capabilities. According to the assessments quoted in the report, Tehran has resumed the production of ballistic missiles using stored parts and underground facilities, and part of the damage to the military infrastructure has been less than the initial estimates.
The report also claims that Iran has distributed its weapons production among multiple centers, including underground facilities; A change that could make it more difficult to target military infrastructure. Israel's intelligence assessment, according to this report, indicates that Iran's missile and drone capabilities are approaching their pre-war levels.
Netanyahu now faces three main paths: attacking the Houthis in Yemen, resuming the war with Iran, or maintaining military readiness until the election results are clear. Attacking Yemen may have lower political and military costs compared to a direct war with Iran and at the same time provide an opportunity to show power and gain Saudi cooperation.
However, Riyadh's opposition to Israel's open participation and concern over the reconstruction of Iran's military power complicates decision-making. In the end, Netanyahu's choice will depend not only on military considerations, but also on the link between political survival, fear of Iran and efforts to expand relations with Saudi Arabia.