IEA Warns Diesel Shortage Crisis Could Persist

The International Energy Agency warned that the diesel shortage crisis may continue until 2027 and drive up costs.

The International Energy Agency warned that the diesel shortage crisis may continue until 2027 and increase costs.

According to the report of Ambassador Arjan, today (Wednesday), in a report quoted by the International Energy Agency, he warned that diesel supply restrictions may continue until most of 2027.

The sharp decrease in reserves in recent months, the decline in refinery production and the approaching peak of winter demand have put pressure on the fuel market.

The profit margin of diesel refining, i.e. the difference between the price of this fuel and the crude oil used to produce it, reached a record close to $95 per barrel in September.

According to this report, the American-Israeli war against Iran and the reduction of refining capacity have limited diesel production and aggravated the supply shortage.

The International Energy Agency announced that the long-term disruption in supply has put pressure on the diesel market, and before the autumn repairs of the refineries and the increase in winter demand, the stocks of this fuel have decreased, contrary to the usual seasonal pattern.

The agency predicted that global refinery activity will pick up later this year, helping to build up inventories again, but this will not be enough to offset the deficit accumulated over the year.

The member countries of this agency are coordinating to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from strategic reserves to curb prices.

This action is carried out in a situation where the increase in the cost of this fuel has intensified political and economic pressures; Meanwhile, diesel plays an essential role in industry, agriculture and transportation.

According to the agency report, diesel exports from the Middle East and Russia decreased by a total of 1.3 million barrels per day in September. It is also predicted that global oil demand will decrease by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, and 25% of this decrease will be related to diesel.

The agency warned that unprecedented diesel prices are already having far-reaching consequences for the economy and will affect real household incomes, economic activity and inflation by increasing the cost of goods.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency predicted that the global oil supply will decrease by 5.8 million barrels per day in 2026 and will face an increase of 7.7 million barrels per day in 2027; A change that could face the global oil market with oversupply again.