Possible Increase in Autumn Rainfall in Gilan; Agencies Should Be Ready
Astara – The Director-General of Meteorology in Gilan, referring to the intensity of the 'super El Niño' phenomenon, said autumn rainfall in the province is forecast to exceed normal levels, and agencies must be prepared for unusual conditions.
Astara- Director General of Meteorology of Gilan, referring to the severity of the "Super El Nino" phenomenon, said: Autumn rains in the province are expected to be beyond normal and the devices should be ready for unusual conditions.
According to Mehr reporter, Mohammad Dadares said at a meeting of the crisis management headquarters of Gilan province on Monday afternoon, which was held in the governorate of Astara with the presence of the governors of the western cities of Gilan and the general managers of some of the provincial administrations, pointing out that 90% of natural disasters, 70% of casualties and 75% of financial losses are caused by climatic and atmospheric phenomena, and stated that Iran is among the ten most dangerous countries in the world and Gilan is also among the five accident-prone provinces of the country.
global temperature increase; Crossing the border of 1.5 degrees
The Director General of Meteorology of Gilan stated that the World Meteorological Organization had accepted a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees from 2023, and added: This temperature increase was not only recorded in all months of 2023, but according to the official announcement, we will experience the highest global warming in 2027.
He emphasized: climate change is a global phenomenon that has the most negative effect in latitudes of 30 to 60 degrees; The range in which Iran and Europe are placed and this issue is a serious warning for us.
limited rainfall; Evidence of climate change in Gilan
Referring to examples of heavy rains in recent years, the judge said: 320 mm of rain in less than 24 hours in Astara, 84 mm of rain in 2.5 hours in Rasht, 117 mm of rain in 6 hours in Amlesh, 320 mm of rain in Rudsar shows that the pattern of rains has changed; Previously, 150 mm of rain occurred in three days, but now the same amount is recorded in less than six hours.
He also announced a 2.1-degree increase in Gilan's temperature compared to the long-term and a seven-year decrease in rainfall and drought.
The general director of Gilan Meteorology, pointing out that El Nino is a well-known phenomenon, said: What is happening this year is a severe El Nino or Super El Nino.
According to him, the temperature increase in the Pacific Ocean should be between 0.5 and 1 degrees for El Nino to form, but this year, this increase has been recorded by 1.8 to 2 degrees and according to the latest reports, up to 3 degrees.
He added: Climate cycles such as North Atlantic Ocean Oscillation (NAO), Polar Oscillation (AO) and Indian Ocean Dipole are also activated at the same time and increase the intensity of El Nino.
The experience of Gilan in El Niño years
Referring to the 30-year study of Rasht's rainfall, Judge said: the long-term average of Rasht's rainfall is 1,350 mm, but in 9 years the rainfall has exceeded normal and in four years of this period, this increase has coincided with El Nino. Rainfall between 1700 and 1900 mm.
He considered the years 1372, 1397 and 1398 as examples of very heavy rains at the same time as El Nino.
fall rain forecast; The possibility of an increase of 60 to 70 percent
The Director General of Meteorology of Gilan said about the long-term forecast: the probability of the announced scenarios is between 60 and 70 percent. The goal is not to cause concern; The goal is to prepare the devices.
In the end, he emphasized: Paying attention to warnings, holding continuous meetings and proactive action is the only way to reduce possible damages.
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