Will Silver Hit $50 Again? Bloomberg Intelligence Warns of Years Below $84
لینک منبع: نقره دوباره ۵۰ دلاری می‌شود؟ هشدار بلومبرگ اینتلیجنس از سال‌ها نوسان زیر ۸۴ دلار در یک نگاه مایک مک‌گلون، ارشد استراتژیست کالا در بلومبرگ اینتلیجنس، پیش‌بینی می‌کند نقره ممکن است تا سال‌ها بین ۵۰ تا ۸۴ دلار در هر اونس محدود بماند. نقره در زمان انتشار ۵۹٫۱۱ دلار در هر اونس معامله می‌شد و در همان روز نزدیک ۲ درصد افت داشت. قیمت نقره ابتدای سال ۲۰۲۶ به رکورد […] سایت منبع: سفیر ارجان
Mike McGlone, Chief Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicts that silver may remain limited between $50 and $84 an ounce for years.
Silver was trading at $59.11 an ounce at the time of publication, down nearly 2% on the day.
The price of silver at the beginning of 2026 had reached a historical record above 120 dollars per ounce.
McGlone believes that the condition for improving the market's view of silver is to return and stabilize the price above $84 per ounce.
Mike McGlone, chief commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence (Bloomberg's research arm), said in a note that silver prices may retreat to $50 an ounce in the short term and then reach meaningful support. According to his estimate, silver may remain stuck between 50 and 84 dollars per ounce for several years. The significance of this warning is that silver is still struggling to recover from its historic rally and the selling pressure may continue for years.
The spot price of silver at the time of publication of this analysis was $59.11 per ounce and was down nearly 2% on the same day. McGlone has been cautious about silver since it hit a record high above $120 in early 2026. He had previously warned that this unprecedented rally may be a lasting ceiling for several years. According to him, the price may need to stabilize at lower levels to stabilize demand again.
McGlone's answer to the question of silver returning to $50 is positive, but in terms of probability, not certainty. He points to the history of the market for this view: "The last time the price and volatility of silver reached the level of 2026 was the jump of 1979 to 1980, which reached a ceiling of nearly 50 dollars per ounce; A level that was not crossed until last year." "Our assumption is that the silver hangover may last as long as past extremes, and around $50 is a good initial support," he continued.
McGlone sees the recent fluctuations as a sign of the extremes of the silver market. According to his research, silver's 260-day volatility (a measure of price volatility) is now 5.1 times that of the S&P 500. This is the highest relative level since 1980; The year when silver experienced a historic fall. "What ties 2026 to previous sustained highs is silver spending around 2.7 times its 10-year average at the end of 2025," he says. The highest amount since 1979."
McGlone does not rule out the risk of falling beyond $50. According to him, the price of reversion to the 10-year average of silver (the level to which the price tends to return in the long term) is about $31 per ounce. He points to the rallies of 1980 and 2011, after which the bottom was formed in 1993 at $3.60 and in 2020 at $11.60, respectively.
According to McGlone, silver faces a serious hurdle before market sentiment improves. The price needs to go back above $84 and stay at that level to regain its lost appeal. His bearish view is not limited to silver and he expects gold to eventually reach the support of $4,000 per ounce. He said about gold: "Gold is facing headwinds until the end of the year, which comes from the highest yield of 5-year US Treasury bonds in the last 2 decades; "Partly due to the oil boom in 2026."
In Bloomberg Intelligence's scenario, two price levels determine silver's path: $50 as the first support and $84 as a condition for optimism to return. As long as the price stays between these two levels, in McGlone's view, the period after the $120 record may be longer than the market expects.
Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence has suggested that silver will return to around $50 per ounce and says that the metal may fluctuate between $50 and $84 for years. He also predicts a drop below 4000 dollars for gold.
This analysis is taken from the report of the Kitco News website and the team of Sefir Arjan has rewritten it in Farsi language.