Bitcoin may look to retrace 20-month trend line before new records: CryptoQuant

The Bitcoin Market Cycle Signals tool shows a history of Bitcoin price copying, possibly preparing to retrace a key moving average before testing new highs.

Bitcoin is trying to cross an "inflection point" that has historically given rise to new macro rates.

BTC/USD has started a new battle with its 20-month simple moving average (SMA), data from crypto-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant shows.

The 20-month SMA, at $87,165 from October 16, is the trendline around which the popular Bollinger Bands metric is built. This, in turn, is the basis of the CryptoQuant market cycle signal tool, which seeks to determine the position of Bitcoin in its market cycle.

Bollinger Bands use standard deviation to add an upper and lower band around the 20-month SMA. Currently, these prices are $121,640 and $52,694, respectively. The CryptoQuant Index describes the area between the lower band and the SMA as the "base of accumulation", while the SMA itself is called the "tipping point", a previous point of investor surrender due to the price breaking below it from the top, last in December 2025.

BTC/USD 1 month chart with Bollinger Bands. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

With Bitcoin now preparing to challenge the capitulation zone from below, history shows that successful breakouts have led to new cycle highs.

"Just over a year after the all-time high (ATH) of $124,709 on October 6, 2025, the market has completed its 'reset,'" GugaOnChain summarized in a blog post, contributing to CryptoQuant.

While Bollinger Bands are not intended to provide buy and sell signals, market cycle signals are the "smart money" to take advantage of when Bitcoin/USD hits its upper band. While this figure is currently just below Bitcoin's recent record high of $126,200 from October 2025, CryptoQuant sees the next rally continuing beyond this level.

Referring to BTC's current price support zone, GugaOnChain added: "While retail fears the current $82,442, thinking it's 'high', the BTC Chain Index: Market Cycle signals that we're just getting warmed up."

Bitcoin Market Cycle Signal Chart Source: CryptoQuant

The 20-month SMA intersects with Bitcoin's 2026 opening level at $87,490, increasing its strength as resistance. As Cointelegraph reported, large walls of on-demand liquidity remain adjacent to exchange order books.

CryptoQuant takes a bullish stance on the emerging Bitcoin bull market, despite the existence of risky and risky assets that are in the path of macroeconomic headwinds.

This week, Japan's XWIN Research Institute flagged data from three blockchain benchmarks that it said gave reason for "cautious optimism" for a return to bullish momentum by the end of October.

In late August, the company's CEO, Ki Young Ju, officially announced that the bear market is over based on bull bear market cycle indicator readings. It uses a combination of data from several chain profitability metrics and shows upward momentum with a reading of 0.186 on its scale versus 0.042 in August.