“Energy Ceasefire”: What Lies Behind Trump’s Love-Hate Relationship with Russian Oil?

Trump’s energy ceasefire has drawn criticism for helping fund Russia’s war budget amid diesel shortages and rising consumer costs.

US President Donald Trump announced an immediate "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, days after easing sanctions on Russian fuel to counter rising domestic and global fuel prices.

The energy truce announced on Sunday marks another shift in Washington's approach to Russian energy, as the U.S.-Iran war and recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities have disrupted global oil supplies and driven up fuel prices. Trump has even asked Ukraine not to attack Russian oil facilities, as Moscow remains a major exporter of diesel.

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The end of the list of diesel price hikes in recent weeks has especially put pressure on the Republican Party of Trump ahead of the November midterm elections. Polls show that Americans hold the Trump administration responsible for fuel price hikes in the midst of America's unpopular war against Iran.

Susanna Streeter, senior investment strategist at the Wealth Club, told Al Jazeera, referring to the counter-attacks of Ukraine and Russia on energy sites, "The attack on refineries and energy facilities has taken capacity out of the global fuel market and increased the costs of transportation, agriculture and business, and the pain is ultimately passed on to consumers."

"A true ceasefire could help protect stocks and alleviate some of that pressure, especially as winter approaches.

However, he warned that it was too soon to call it a "diplomatic breakthrough", citing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's comments that he had come as a surprise to the energy ceasefire.

Trump's decisions have drawn criticism from US politicians and European allies, who warn that allowing Russian fuel into global markets could generate new revenue for Moscow to finance its war in Ukraine. In March, the Trump administration issued sanctions relief for Russian offshore oil.

So, why has Trump repeatedly changed his position on Russian energy, and what is behind his recent decisions?

What is the energy ceasefire that Trump announced?

Trump said on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to immediately stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure.

"Both sides have agreed. Don't break!" He wrote on Truth Social without providing further details.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was unaware of the energy truce and said the deal was "news" to him, but welcomed the announcement nonetheless.

However, he said Russian drones continued to target Ukrainian energy facilities, including a power plant in Kharkiv, after Trump's statement.

"We're waiting for the details of the situation between the Americans and the Russians, and we're waiting to see if the Americans are ready to take a specific step," Zelensky said Monday during a video conference at a security conference in Warsaw.

This energy truce could work, and if the Americans actually stepped in and made sure the Russians respected it, it could be a big step toward ending the war.

Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Russian oil refineries, arguing that energy revenues help finance Moscow's war effort. Meanwhile, Russia has attacked Ukraine's electricity and heating infrastructure during the four-year conflict.

Academic Aleksey Muryaev has called for caution on Trump's announcement, questioning whether a deal has actually been reached, and if so, what it entails.

"Is it about suspending attacks on oil refineries? And if so, then it would be a bad situation, because Ukrainian oil refineries have already been taken out by Russian attacks," Muraviev, a senior fellow in defense and strategic studies at Edith Cowan University, told Al Jazeera.

So, in that sense, it effectively means suspending Ukraine's unilateral actions against Russian oil refinery facilities.

Muriayev also linked the announcement to Trump's deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying it could be a signal to Zelensky.

Referring to the agreement on the export of diesel fuel until April 2027, he said: "The attack on the ability of the Russian oil refinery will probably be interpreted by Washington as an attack on the economic interests of the United States."

The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continue to keep global oil markets under pressure

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell to around $103.04 a barrel on Monday following Trump's ceasefire announcement and the Russian diesel deal, while US West Texas Intermediate crude traded around $90.96.

However, prices remain high because of the US-Israel war against Iran, which began on February 28, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which a fifth of the world's oil flows.

The recent attacks by the Yemeni Houthis on Saudi oil facilities and airports and the conflicts around the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab strait have put more pressure on oil prices.

Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have exacerbated diesel shortages, affecting essential fuel for agricultural and transportation industries.

The crisis last week prompted the Group of Seven to agree to release 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves. The decision of the Group of 7 was made after pressure from Trump.

How has the Trump administration zigzagged between punishing and accepting Russian energy?

Since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Washington's approach to Russian energy has changed many times.

Under Joe Biden, the United States banned Russian oil and energy imports in March 2022, seeking to cut off revenues used to finance Moscow's war.

But Washington simultaneously supported a G7 price ceiling on Russian oil, designed to limit Moscow's revenues without removing too much supply from the world market.

In addition, the Biden administration also accepted India's continued purchase of Russian oil to prevent rising global prices.

Trump initially stepped up pressure on Moscow after returning to power last year. In August 2025, his government imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods due to New Delhi's purchase of Russian oil.

Two months later, Washington sanctioned Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, accusing Moscow of not seriously pursuing peace talks to end the war in Ukraine.

However, Washington's approach changed dramatically this year. On March 5, Washington issued a 30-day waiver allowing India to buy Russian oil stranded at sea, as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz threatened global supplies amid US strikes on Iran.

A week later, the Trump administration extended the waiver, allowing countries around the world to buy embargoed Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded on tankers, which runs through April 11.

In September, Trump called on Ukraine to stop attacks on Russian refineries, blaming the attacks on global diesel shortages.