The connection of the American people's table with the war against Iran and trade tariffs / Why is the US mid-term election a rare scene of foreign policy trial?

Contrary to the usual tradition in the political atmosphere of Washington, where foreign policy played a secondary role in the decision-making at the ballot box, the mid-term elections on November 12 (November 3) have become a rare arena for testing the diplomatic and military options of the White House; A situation similar to the crushing defeat of the Republicans in 2006 following the Iraq war crisis, this time with the direct connection of the costs of the war with Iran and the tariff wars to the price of gasoline.

According to Ambassador Arjan, in a strategic analysis written by Andrew Payne, director of Chatham House's Europe, Russia and America programs, the British think tank on international relations (Chathamhouse) wrote that foreign policy rarely determines the fate of elections in America and the traditional belief is that voters do not give information or importance to international relations and their decisions are formed based on the contents of their pockets and the price of basic items; But in this year's elections, the economy itself has become foreign policy.

According to this analyst, in American political history, there are two vital exceptions regarding citizens' indifference to foreign policy, both of which are fully applicable in today's political environment: firstly, that the government's foreign policy decisions directly affect people's livelihood and daily life, and secondly, that these options show the extent of the president's adequacy or inadequacy as the commander-in-chief.

Therefore, the upcoming mid-term elections can be a rare election event centered on foreign policy; A phenomenon that has not been seen since the resounding defeat of the Republicans in 2006 during the George Bush era due to the consequences of the Iraq war.

With people now reeling from yet another war in the Middle East and President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, history may be repeating itself.

Realizing this danger, Trump has sent conflicting signals about the effect of the election on the war against Iran and has been forced to agree on the import of Russian diesel in order to control fuel prices, but the more fundamental question is what path he will take after passing the obstacle of November 12 - as the last lever of electoral monitoring during his presidency.

War on ballot papers; Direct link between inflation and international policies

War is always the most obvious example where diplomatic and military decisions hit people's tables directly.

Although in the "Chicago Council on Global Affairs" survey, 37% of citizens considered inflation and the cost of living to be the first driver of their vote, and only 2% directly pointed to the Iran war—which may be due to the low number of direct casualties of American forces—but the statistical facts show that people consider high prices to be the White House's options.

According to the "Institute of Global Affairs" survey, 81% of Americans believe that the war with Iran has increased the cost of living, and in the Chicago Council survey, this number even reaches 86%.

In addition, 81% of the respondents called trade wars and tariffs as the reason for the loss of purchasing power, and the Quito Institute poll shows that 75% of people consider tariff policies effective in their mid-term voting.

These grievances are not limited to party polarization; Because the popularity of Trump's economic and regional policies is even lower than his general approval rating—which has remained at a historical figure of 37 percent—and shows that many of his traditional supporters are not with these decisions either.

The transformation of Trump's face; From the powerful leader to the reckless politician

The second exception occurs when gross international errors destroy the image of the incumbent president's leadership in public opinion; Just as the tragedy of leaving Afghanistan in 2021 dealt an irreparable blow to Joe Biden's position, and Trump introduced himself as a powerful and peaceful leader in the 2024 contest.

Today, this double credit has collapsed; Not only has Trump failed to solve past crises, but he has broken his fundamental promise to keep the country away from endless and costly wars.

In a joint poll conducted by CNN and SSRS Institute, the level of satisfaction with Trump's foreign policy management has dropped to 29%, and only one out of four Americans believe that he has a clear strategy towards Tehran.

Also, in the survey of the Yugao Institute, 56% of citizens found the word "reckless" to describe Trump quite appropriate, which increased by 5%, while the use of the title "authoritative leader" recorded a downward trend.

Panic in key states and the specter of decisions after November 12

Republicans had a low chance due to the historical tradition of mid-term elections, which is always a referendum against the ruling party, but the influence of foreign policy in gray states and millimetric contests can make their defeat certain.

This fear has caused some conservative candidates to distance themselves from the White House; Mike Rogers, a candidate for the Senate in Michigan, clearly stated that the war with Iran must be stopped as soon as possible so that families can have peace of mind, and Ashley Hinson in Iowa emphasized that citizens should not pay for the war with Iran behind the gas tank or at the foot of the grocery store.

Although Trump tried to control energy prices by buying diesel from Moscow, blackmailing Vladimir Putin highlighted another weakness, flaunting his inability to stop the war in Ukraine.

However, historical experience bears a disturbing warning; As in 2006, when George Bush not only did not correct his course after losing the election, but also ignited the Iraq war by sending more troops, Trump may follow the path of military escalation in the region after the end of the November 12 election and freeing himself from the shackles of the voters. This behavior will turn his "lame duck" presidency into an extremely chaotic period in the international system.