America and the High Cost of War with Iran
Warnings from Western analysts about the consequences of escalating tensions with Iran amount, more than a military recommendation, to an admission of the failure of 'maximum pressure.'
According to Ambassador Arjan's report, Aghah newspaper wrote: Western analysts' warning about the consequences of the escalation of tension with Iran is more of a military recommendation, and an admission of the failure of "maximum pressure". Washington now faces a paradox. On the one hand, it has a desire to change regional equations, and on the other hand, it is facing irreparable risks. The threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz and the jump in energy prices will turn the war from a military operation into an economic self-harm for the United States, because global inflation caused by any disruption in oil supply can severely destabilize the internal stability of the United States and its allies.
Robert Pipe, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago and an experienced strategist of military strategies, warned: Donald Trump, the president of the United States, may be approaching a critical point in which he must decide on a significant escalation of the war with Iran; A decision which, according to him, if taken, could trigger an economic and military crisis just a few weeks before the US mid-term elections. Pip claimed in the "Breaking Points" program on YouTube: The recent military formation of the United States shows that preparations are underway to enter a new and dangerous phase of the conflict. Referring to this issue, he warns: We (America) are in the most dangerous "trap" stage of tension escalation.
Pip, who has researched and studied air power, economic sanctions, and pressure and intimidation through military means for decades, says: As the election approaches, political pressure on Trump is increasing. According to him, it is possible that Trump will order new attacks right before the mid-term elections or during the counting of votes; According to this prominent analyst, the order will probably be adopted "with his (Trump's) hope to change the perception that the war has damaged his presidency."
Citing Washington's recent deployment of military equipment and troops to the region, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier, Pip claimed that the Pentagon was preparing for more military operations. However, he emphasized: these developments do not necessarily mean that Trump has made a final decision. Referring to the huge "Baqiq" oil processing complex in Saudi Arabia with a capacity that he says is about seven million barrels per day, Pip called it one of his serious concerns and stated: A (possible) American attack on Iran's refineries may result in a retaliatory reaction against Saudi energy infrastructure; Attacks that could disrupt the global supply of oil (more than ever) and lead to an even sharper jump in the price of gasoline and the cost of borrowing by the US government. When a well-known analyst like him recommends that the military presence in the region be "reversed", he is actually pointing to three possible crises that are seriously scaring the White House.
1- Fear of energy shock: America knows that Iran, unlike many countries in the region, has a strategic lever called the Strait of Hormuz. Any military conflict, even if it is short, increases the possibility of blockage or instability in this strait. Since a large part of the world's oil passes through this route, any disruption leads to a jump in oil prices. Another point is related to the increase in energy prices. This will lead to severe inflation in advanced economies, including the United States, and could cause internal protests in the United States. In fact, the analyst warned, America may sacrifice its own economy and its allies to defeat Iran. A defeat that Trump can only dream of for himself.
2- Changing Iran's defense paradigm: Washington learned in the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan that dense and advanced armies are not necessarily victorious in the field. In recent years, Iran has moved its defense doctrine towards "asymmetrical wars". This means that Iran is able to transfer the cost of war outside its borders. The recommendation to "reverse the military presence" is an admission that the strategy of maximum military pressure is no longer effective and does not work in Iran.
3- Political impasse and fear of a new quagmire: No American president wants to be recorded in history as the person who brought America into a new "quagmire" in the Middle East. A war with a country as vast and complex as Iran does not guarantee the victory of the other party. This analysis is accepted by some Western think tanks and even Americans, but the mad man of the White House only threatens and taunts because he knows very well that their strategies towards Iran have reached a dead end and not only does he not bring it on himself, but does the opposite. He wants to save himself from the swamp of the region and Iran by threats and rudeness! Now, both he and his foreign minister make claims from time to time; The claims that have been met with a decisive response from political parties and currents in our country. Fundamentalists, reformists and moderates have all come under one umbrella to defend national sovereignty, and a beautiful rainbow of unity and cohesion has formed in the sphere of Iranian politics.
America and Israel have nothing in their pockets
In this regard, Hojjat-ul-Islam Rasool Mutjabnia, one of the reformist figures and Secretary General of the Islamic Republic of Iran Party, said in an interview with "Agah" newspaper: "America has done everything it can so far; Sanctions are not new, we have been under the most severe sanctions for decades, even if they want to expand them, they still cannot stop Iran. Of course, America has bothered people all these years by imposing various sanctions, including drug and food embargoes. This anti-human act and its escalation contradicts the claim of democracy and human rights, but it still claims that it wants to develop sanctions, while with these actions they cannot even bring down the people, let alone the government.
He added: From the military point of view, as mentioned earlier, America and Israel used everything they could and they have nothing left. If they want to start a third world war, the total damage they will see will be more than ours, so they express new threats to the psychological atmosphere. Referring to the nearness of mid-term elections in the United States, this political activist said: Trump's hands should be full for the upcoming elections, but considering that he feels inadequate and defeated in the war he has waged with Iran, he wants to excite his supporters and raise their spirits through Iran's economic threat. Nevertheless, Trump has lied so much and made baseless claims that his words are no longer believable even for his staunch supporters.
Reacting to the Trump administration's claims about the Strait of Hormuz, while this strait is a part of Iran's strategic geography, Motjabnia said: There is no doubt that this waterway is a part of our country, and among the two coastal countries of Iran and Oman, Iran has the most right to use this waterway. Since the victory of the Islamic Revolution, the regime of the Islamic Republic and the people of Iran have allowed other countries to use this strait and pass goods, but during the recent wars, they saw that this waterway has turned into a route for the transfer of weapons of war and all kinds of weapons of mass destruction.
He stated: In addition, America, Israel and their allies used the Strait of Hormuz to attack Iran; Like someone who comes to our house and wants to use the facilities in the house against us and hit us; It is natural that no one can bear it. Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran and no country can take it from Iran or have sovereignty there. Of course, because a part of the strait is in the territory of Oman, an agreement has been written between Iran and Oman and they are also cooperating with Iran.
The Secretary General of the Republican Party said: Taking into account the geopolitical position of Iran, the unity and cohesion of its people and officials, Trump's fumbling in every field is like a drowning man who clings to every thorn and thorn to save himself. Trump, who has now become history in Russia, every move he makes will be more scandalous, and the American people will also feel ashamed and humiliated that such a person has taken over the government there. However, we are currently facing a chess game in which the calculations of the White House are at odds with the realities on the ground. The Western analyst's warning is actually an acknowledgment of the fact that the tools of military and economic pressure are no longer efficient, but due to global economic risks - such as the energy crisis - and Iran's deterrence, they are becoming Washington's own weaknesses.
From another point of view, these pressures have left a reverse effect on Iran's internal layers; In such a way that national security has become a red line that no party or faction is willing to cross, despite all the political differences. This national cohesion against external threats, along with warnings within the US, has created a "double barrier" against military scenarios. In fact, when the American and Western analysts warn of the economic consequences of the war and at the same time inside Iran, the factions unite to maintain the national survival, the "collapse of the system from within" scenario practically came to a dead end. Therefore, Washington's failure in this case is the result of a combination of fear of global costs and a mistake in estimating the level of national unity of Iranians, because any military conflict in the region means severe shocks in the energy market, possible blockage of vital oil arteries in the Strait of Hormuz, and an unprecedented jump in prices that can lead to inflation in global economies.