Warm El Niño Looms Over Fars Autumn: Risk of Torrential and Irregular Rainfall

Shiraz – Director-General of Meteorology in Fars warned of above-normal and irregular rainfall this autumn, saying: The coincidence of a warm El Niño with other climate indicators could pave the way for showers and flash floods.

Shiraz - The Director General of Fars Meteorology announced the possibility of more than normal and irregular rains in the fall and said: the combination of warm El Nino with other climatic indicators can cause torrential rains and floods.

Seyyed Qassem Hosseini, in a conversation with Mehr reporter, explained the upcoming climate conditions and said: El Nino is an ocean phenomenon that is formed by the increase in the temperature of the waters of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean compared to the long-term average, and due to the vastness of this ocean, it can affect the weather patterns of different regions of the world, including Iran.

He added: When the increase in water temperature exceeds about 2 degrees, the term warm El Nino or Super El Nino is used; A phenomenon that we are facing this year as well.

The effect of El Nino on the autumn rainfall in Fars

The Director General of Fars Meteorology stated that El Nino alone does not determine the amount of rainfall, and said: the effect of this phenomenon on the province's rainfall depends on the state of other climatic indicators, including the Indian Ocean's bipolarity, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the quasi-biennial oscillation.

Hosseini continued: If these indicators are in a suitable phase, especially in Fars province, the possibility of more than normal rainfall in the fall season will increase.

Referring to the experience of the past years, he said: the analysis of statistical periods shows that in the years of warm El Nino, in addition to the possibility of rainfall exceeding the long-term average, the distribution of rainfall may also deviate from the usual pattern; In such a way that significant rainfall occurs in a short period of time and after that, a period without rainfall continues.

Warning about muddy floods and torrential rains in Fars

The Director General of Fars Meteorology emphasized the need to pay attention to the dangers of rains at the beginning of the autumn season and stated: During this period, especially in October when the soil is in dry conditions, torrential rains can wash away the soil and move pebbles and debris along with the runoff.

Hosseini added: In such a situation, instead of clear runoff, muddy and debris floods may form, which are more dangerous for people and areas along the water flow path due to the presence of sediments and pebbles.

Referring to the possible accompaniment of torrential rains with thunderstorms, he emphasized the necessity of taking meteorological warnings seriously and following safety recommendations during the occurrence of rains.

15 mm rainfall was recorded in Salamatabad, Firozabad

The Director General of Fars Meteorology also said about the recent rains in the province: Rain has been reported in some areas, including Firouzabad, parts of West Sepidan, Izadkhasat and Abadeh.

Hosseini added: According to the recorded reports, the highest amount of rainfall was reported in Salamatabad area of Firozabad with 15 mm of rain.

He also clarified about the possibility of damage or accident caused by the recent rains: the announcement of the exact statistics of possible accidents and damages should be followed up by the crisis management of the province.