As Climate Change Intensifies, the Planet's Condition Is "Grave and Worsening"

Seven of 16 planetary vital signs are at their most extreme levels on record, and El Niño is here to make things worse.

"If Earth were a patient coming in for an annual physical, I would say it's in dire straits and getting worse," said Bill Ripple, a researcher at Oregon State University.

Ripple is the lead author of a new paper describing the state of climate, published Wednesday in BioScience. The findings show that seven of the 16 planetary vital signs tracked by the researchers have never been more intense.

This includes the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which is 50% higher than pre-industrial levels due to the burning of fossil fuels, as well as signs of burning all that oil, coal and gas. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have shrunk to record lows, while ocean temperatures have reached record highs.

According to the analysis, climate change has already increased the rate of warming from about 0.05°C per decade from 1880 to 1970 to 0.36°C per decade as of 2010. While global average temperatures, including land, are not at their peak, they may change by the end of the year as El Niño strengthens. The natural climate pattern is characterized by a warmer-than-normal Pacific Ocean, but it also increases global warming by dumping more energy into the atmosphere. This year's El Nino is shaping up to be one of record.

"A strong El Niño could temporarily push global temperatures even higher, while bringing additional heat and drought to vulnerable regions," Ripple said. He adds that "El Nino is a natural occurrence, but now it's happening on top of a much warmer planet. "These effects make it potentially more dangerous."

Of particular concern are ecosystems such as coral reefs and tropical forests. The release of heat from the oceans is likely to lead to mass die-offs of corals, known as coral bleaching. With each successive wave of bleaching, the rocks become less flexible. Corals are among the ecosystems most threatened by climate change. If the planet warms more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, it is unlikely that most of the world's corals will survive.

Tropical forests are also facing pressure from El Niño. This is especially true for the Amazon, which tends to see dry weather during this weather pattern. The timing couldn't be worse: The region, dubbed the "lungs of the world," is already under intense pressure from logging and mining interests and the possible return of a right-wing government in Brazil that prioritizes mining and land clearing over conservation.

The new report also warns that the Amazon is one of the ecosystems in danger of crossing a tipping point – that is, reaching the threshold where it will transform from a tropical rainforest to something like a savannah. It is highly unlikely that a break through this tipping point is imminent, let alone happening this year. But this year's El Niño-driven weather explosion will bring it closer.

"Warming, drought and deforestation could push the Amazon toward massive deforestation," Ripple says. My concern is that these changes could interact, making it increasingly difficult to stop them."

The report is a flurry of bad news for the climate, although it does note that carbon-free forms of energy are playing a bigger role in the power grid. The report calls it a sign that we are in the "Age of Electricity." Despite that, the annual emission of greenhouse gases is at its highest level. In other words, the world is still smoking a pack of cigarettes a day, even at the risk of losing a lung.

"There are some encouraging signs, particularly the growth of renewables, but not yet enough to reverse the overall deterioration," Ripple said. He said: "The climate emergency is not something that awaits us in the future." "We're living through it right now."