Want to know how to win in October? Milwaukee Brewing Company 2026 presents the plan

The Milwaukee Brewers are outscoring the Dodgers 3-0 in the NLCS despite more hits, proving that Major League Baseball's playoffs have no secret formula.

'They counted us out' - Robert Gasser on Brewers 3-0 lead over Dodgers, recent dominance and more

John Smoltz spoke with Robert Gasser of the Milwaukee Brewers about the Milwaukee Brewers' 3-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS.

This is arguably the most important question for organizations and fans throughout Major League Baseball. How do you win the playoffs?

There's a theoretical formula to getting to October, drafting and developing well, building a full roster that has depth at key positions, using analytics to piece together the best skill sets and signing targeted free agents to fill in the missing pieces. The more money you have, the easier it is to sign those free agents, of course, but as the Yankees, Mets, Giants and Angels will tell you, playing in a big market and acquiring expensive talent doesn't always guarantee results.

But when you're in the postseason, how can you make sure your team gets a spot in the World Series? The ultimate goal, the only outcome that matters and the only determining factor in "the best team in baseball?"

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Milwaukee Brewers 2026 shows the rest of the sport exactly how it's done.

For the record, the Brewers enter Thursday afternoon as the favorites to advance to the World Series thanks to their 3-0 Series lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have the most expensive roster in the sport, although they are followed by the New York Mets with active player payroll in 2026, depending on which source you use. Milwaukee? They were just the 19th of the season.

They traded their top pitcher, Freddy Peralta, in 2025, a year after they traded star closer Devin Williams to the Yankees and Corbin Burns to the Baltimore Orioles. Their big offseason acquisitions were backup catcher Gary Sanchez, Angel Zerpa, Jake Woodford, and a trade to acquire David Hamilton, Shane Drohan and Kyle Harrison from the Boston Red Sox for Caleb Durbin and several other players.

During the offseason, their big moves were watching Tariq Escobal go to the Dodgers, getting Dustin May and JoJo Romero, and adding reliever Antonio Senzatela. If it sounds that way, that's because it is.

However, in game one of the NLCS, the Brewers defeated Escobal 2-1. In game two, they bounced back and defeated World Series champion Yoshinobu Yamamoto en route to an easy 7-4 victory. In game three, they fell behind late, scoring just five straight runs to pull off another 6-2 win. So how do they do it?

Most seasoned baseball analysts have told us that Milwaukee wins because they don't. Their approach is contact-based. Put the ball in play, the thinking goes, don't just try and hit home. These analysts have decades of experience at the highest level of baseball. Obviously, they have tremendous insight and accurate statistical breakdown to back up their opinions.

Well, in game one of the NLCS, the Dodgers had eight hits, meaning they put the ball in 23 of their 31 at bats. Milwaukee had 13 hits and put the ball in play in just 13 of its 26 at-bats. So the Dodgers' home run approach resulted in...fewer hits and more balls in play. Another 10 balls have been put in play, actually, a lot in just one game. But the Brewers won anyway, 2-1. interesting

In game two of the NLCS, the Dodgers had nine hits, while Milwaukee had 10. Funnily enough, the only home run for the Brewers was hit by William Contreras. They won 7-4.

In Game 3, Milwaukee struck out 12 times in 35 at-bats against Blake Snell and the Dodgers' bullpen. Los Angeles? Their hitters had just 8 hits in 32 at bats. The Dodgers put the ball in play 24 times and Milwaukee 23 times. However, the Brewers still won 6-2. how Because they went home three times, while Los Angeles again laid a goose egg.

So in three games, the Brewers have struck out 35 times, an average of nearly 12 per game. The Dodgers have scored 25 times, or just over 8 times per game. It's very strange because every baseball analyst has said that Milwaukee's superior approach, just putting the ball in play, getting the bat on the ball, is why they won. However, they make far less contact than the Dodgers, a terrible, new, analytics-driven, home-only school. And Milwaukee has a 5-0 home game advantage in a series they are winning three games to none. Wonder what it means.

We'll get back to that, but what about the call itself? Maybe the Brewers have instructed their hitters to purposefully hit the ball badly, while the Dodgers' hitting staff keeps telling Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani to hit the ball directly to Milwaukee's defensive players. Obviously, poor contact is preferable to hard hitting the ball, because it's old school baseball or something.

Here's what one user, "Dubs Only Sports" found in a post on X. Titled "There is no luck in baseball," which is obviously true because every outcome is the result of purposeful decision making while randomness is just a bogus conspiracy theory, they found that, shockingly, there was little difference in contact quality between the two teams. But there is a huge difference in the results.

The Dodgers have 29 hard-hit balls in the streak, defined as hitting 95 mph or faster. Those 29 at-bats have resulted in 12 hits and no home runs.

Milwaukee has just 21 at-bats in the series, resulting in 11 hits and five home runs.

Sure, you might say, but who cares about hard hit balls when you can hit the ball badly and drive it right? Turns out, the Dodgers do it too!

Los Angeles has 40 balls in this series that were "soft contact," or less than 95 mph. In those 40 balls put in play, they've only managed a hit, good for a .075 batting average. Milwaukee has put 42 balls in play with soft contact, resulting in 16 hits and a .381 batting average.

Wow! So the Dodgers hit the ball harder than Milwaukee and throw almost as many weak balls into play, a difference of less than one per game. They are hitting a lot less than the Brewers. However, their results have been much worse. It really makes you think, doesn't it? Of course, in fact, it will not make anyone think because of the inevitable conclusion: nothing really matters.

All sarcasm aside, here's the real answer to the "secret formula" for winning in October: there is no secret formula. Just be a very good team and I hope you take advantage of the timing with your offensive staff and playmaking.

When it comes to postseason baseball, the gap between teams is so small that the odds of each team winning are only slightly different from a flip of a coin. According to FanGraphs baseball analyst Don Szymborski, creator of the ZiPS projection system, the Dodgers had a 58 percent chance of winning before the series began. That's what a $250 million salary gap buys, a 58 percent chance instead of a 50 percent chance. Obviously, the result in this year's NLCS is 42 percent.

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Because the margins are so small, unlike sports with poor competitive balance like the NFL, the results depend much more on luck and chance. Random luck that very smart fans or analysts will never admit to. Because humans must have an explanation for everything, every outcome is attributed to some kind of intention, process, or approach, unlike baseball's inherent diversity.

Milwaukee's bullpen has allowed two runs in about 32 innings in the postseason. Filled with layoffs from other teams and cheap in-house options having the best few weeks of their careers at the right time. It's not unexpected or unusual, it's an undeniable part of baseball. Their batting average in this NLCS is .393, where the league average is around .300. The Dodgers? Only .221. Milwaukee's strikeout rate is 31.3%, while the Dodgers' is only 23.4%. Based on call quality, Milwaukee has outperformed its expected stats by nearly 20 points. The Dodgers have performed poorly with 67 points.

The Brewers don't win because of soft contact, they win because they hit home runs and took advantage of lucky bounces on balls put in play.

That's not to say the Brewers aren't a good team, because of course they are. They somehow managed to turn Jake Bauers from an unplayable player into a top baseball player. Misiorowski is the likely winner of the NL Cy Young Award. Their prospects, such as Bryce Turang, Jackson Chorio and Garrett Mitchell, have all come to fruition, a testament to their player development staff. Every trade they've made in recent years has benefited them, stepper in the hat for their scouting department.

But the Brewers have undoubtedly gotten "lucky" in this series, as the results are better than the quality of their contact and approach. The Dodgers were lucky to win in 2024 and 2025. Luck is not a byproduct in postseason baseball, it is literally required. In a large enough sample size, most of the randomness and chance in baseball become the same. That means if the Dodgers play the Brewers 162 times, Los Angeles' talent advantage will be nearly significant, to the point where they win 58% of the games. But in the best of seven? Or the best of five? The talent advantage is so small that a few mutations on either side can lead to a very different outcome. what we see

That's why the guiding philosophy in baseball has become: "Do whatever you can to win 85 games and hope for the best." Because that gives you a 42% chance of beating the most talented roster in a playoff series. It is rational because it is true. The Toronto Blue Jays brought Addison Barger and Ernie Clement within two runs of a championship. They came in last place this year.

Los Angeles' success in 2024 and 2025 has given fans the false impression that World Series results are a foregone conclusion, when quite the opposite is true. The Dodgers have made 17 postseason appearances since 2008. When they are eliminated by Milwaukee this week, they will have won three championships in 17 tries. No sport is less predictable than baseball. There is no way to "destroy" baseball, or break it, or build invincible superteams. Because its volatility creates series with results like this, where the Dodgers hit the ball harder, make more contact, strike out less, and still fade.

Even if Los Angeles were to put together a roster with Scobal, Yamamoto, Paul Skeens, Misiorowski, Aaron Judge, Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., Freddie Freeman, Jr. Caminero and Pete Crowe-Armstrong, that team would have a 58-60 percent chance of winning a best-of-seven series against Golland 8. It doesn't seem right, but it is objective reality. Searching for meaning in October is futile. Looking for a plan to win the World Series is madness.

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